BofA sees EUR/USD parity as a rare event, ‘unlikely’ to happen

July 11, 2024 8:46 am

Bank of America analysts noted that while some market observers continue to speculate about the possibility of the exchange rate reaching parity, such an event is considered rare and historically short-lived.

They referenced a chart showing that, apart from the dot-com bubble burst cycle, the likelihood of the currency pair trading at or below parity is virtually nonexistent based on quarterly data.

The analysts elaborated that the future trajectory of the EUR/USD will hinge on a delicate interplay of factors.

These include the tension between unsustainable debt levels and perceived U.S. economic superiority, as well as Europe’s efforts to consolidate its position in the face of significant geopolitical and energy-related challenges.

Furthermore, the possibility of a trade war following the U.S. elections could exert additional downward pressure on the euro.

Despite these risks, Bank of America maintains that a drop to parity would likely only occur in extreme tail risk scenarios and would not be expected to persist for an extended period.

Bank of America’s assessment comes amid a complex backdrop of global economic uncertainties that continue to influence currency valuations. The EUR/USD pair, in particular, serves as a barometer for the relative economic health and policies between the Eurozone and the United States.

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