EUR/USD advances as US Dollar corrects and Eurozone core inflation remains sticky

July 3, 2024 3:05 pm

  • EUR/USD moves higher to 1.0780 as the US Dollar corrects, and the preliminary Eurozone service inflation for June remains sticky.
  • The US Dollar declines as Fed’s Powell remains confident that disinflation has resumed.
  • Headline Eurozone HICP decelerated expectedly, while the core figure grew steadily year-on-year.

EUR/USD jumps higher to near 1.0770 in Wednesday’s American session after a strong recovery from the round-level support of 1.0700 on Tuesday. The major currency pair extends its recovery as sticky preliminary Eurozone service inflation for June deepens fears of price pressures remaining elevated for a longer period. 

Also, other components of the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report showed that headline inflation decelerated expectedly to 2.5% from May’s reading of 2.6%. In the same period, the core HICP that excludes volatile items rose at a steady pace of 2.9% and remained higher than estimates of 2.8%. The overall data fails to provide any clarity on where price pressures are heading and kept the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest-rate outlook uncertain.

However, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that inflation is moving in the right direction, and the central bank is very advanced in the disinflation path.

On the interest rate outlook, ECB policymaker and Ireland’s Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said he is comfortable with one more rate cut this year but not with market expectations of two. However, he didn’t rule out the possibility.

On the political front, the centralist alliance and the left wing of the European Union’s (EU) second-largest nation withdrew more than 200 candidates from Sunday’s parliamentary elections in an attempt to thwart the far right from gaining an absolute majority.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD strengthens as US Dollar slumps

  • EUR/USD recovers further to near 1.0780 as the US Dollar (USD) corrects further. The US Dollar weakens as number of individuals hired by private employers unexpectedly came in lower at 150K than the prior release of 157K, downwardly revised from 152K. Economists expected that new payrolls to come out slightly higher at 160K. This has triggered uncertainty over the labor market outlook.
  • The US Dollar was already uncer pressure as the commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at the ECB Forum on Central Banking indicated that the United States (US) economy has resumed its journey on the disinflation path. 
  • Powell said that recent data indicate the disinflation process has resumed and added that the central bank has made quite a bit of progress in inflation. However, he also said policymakers want to see more good inflation data before cutting interest rates. Powell’s comments were much more in line with expectations and his speech delivered at the June policy meeting.
  • Meanwhile, expectations for the Fed to reduce interest rates twice this year and initiate the easing cycle from the September meeting remain firm. Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published on Friday. The NFP report will indicate the current status of labor demand and wage growth, which will influence market speculation for Fed rate cuts in September.
  • The US Dollar will remain uncertain on an event-packed Wednesday as ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for June are scheduled for release.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD posts fresh two-week high near 1.0780

EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0770 after a decisive break of the Hammer candlestick formation on a daily timeframe. The broader trend remains sideways amid a Symmetrical Triangle formation that exhibits a volatility contraction.

Last week, the major currency pair rebounded after finding strong buying interest near the upward-sloping border of the Symmetrical Triangle formation near 1.0666, which is marked from the 3 October 2023 low at 1.0448. The downward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from 18 July 2023 high at 1.1276. The Symmetrical Triangle formation exhibits a sharp volatility contraction, which indicates low volume and narrow ticks.

The major currency pair approaches the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0790.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.

Economic Indicator

ADP Employment Change

The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Last release: Wed Jul 03, 2024 12:15

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 150K

Consensus: 160K

Previous: 152K

Source: ADP Research Institute

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