EUR/USD: Risk of EUR breaking above 1.0850 increases – UOB Group

July 9, 2024 9:50 am

The Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a 1.0795/1.0845 range. Risk of EUR breaking above 1.0850 has increased, albeit moderately, UOB Group analysts note.

EUR is set to break above 1.0850

24-HOUR VIEW: “After EUR edged higher last Friday, we noted yesterday that ‘upward momentum has not increased much further.’ We indicated that “instead of pulling back, EUR is more likely to trade in a range between 1.0800 and1.0845.” Our view was not wrong, as EUR traded between 1.0800 and 1.0845, closing at 1.0822 (-0.13%). Momentum indicators are turning flat, and we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range today, expected to be between 1.0795 and 1.0845.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 1.0785), we indicated that ‘while the increase in momentum suggests further EUR strength, it is too early to determine if it can reach the major resistance at 1.0850.’ After EUR rose, we indicated yesterday (08 Jul, spot at 1.0825) that ‘the risk of EUR breaking above 1.0850 has increased, albeit moderately.’ We continue to hold the same view. Overall, only a breach of 1.0770 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has faded. Looking ahead, the next level to watch above 1.0850 is 1.0915.”

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