French poll puts National Rally well short of absolute majority

July 4, 2024 5:05 pm

There is an increasingly-clear picture of a French parliament with a hard split between the left and right, leaving the centrists as the kingmakers.

it takes 289 seats to achieve an absolute majority and the latest poll from IFOP projects:

  • Far right National Rally at 210-240 seats
  • Left wing New Popular Front at 170-200 seats
  • Macron’s centrists at 95-125 seats

I’d expect the centrists to break right but in time I expect that will give voters comfort with Le Pen, who will take the Presidency in a couple years.

I would expect some positive reaction from French stock markets once the dust settles but less so in the euro.

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