Goldman Sachs assess the UK economic outlook under the incoming Labour government

July 3, 2024 10:02 pm

The UK election is today, Thursday, 4 July 2024.

The Labour Party is set to win in a landslide.

This via Goldman Sachs, in summary (from a much longer piece) of the economic outlook under the new government:

  • Taken together, we would look for slightly stronger near-term growth and slightly higher inflation under a Labour majority than current government plans.

  • In particular, we would see a growth upside of about 0.1pp in each of 2025 and 2026, which would likely marginally increase wage growth and inflation.

  • The implications for the BoE would likely be limited, but with risks of slower rate cuts if Labour delivered a sizeable increase in the Living Wage.

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