IEA keeps 2024 demand growth forecast largely steady at 970,000 bpd

July 11, 2024 11:15 am

In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained the 2024 global oil demand growth forecast at 970,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Additional takeaways

2025 global supply growth will reach 1.8 mln bpd, with US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil leading gains.

Oil supply growth in 2024 to hit 770,000 bpd, boosting oil supply to a record 103 mln bpd.

Sees Q3 call on OPEC+ crude 800,000 bpd higher than June output.

Subpar economic growth, greater efficiencies and vehicle electrification to hit demand in 2024, 2025.

China accounted for 70% of global demand gains in 2023 but just around 40% in 2024 and 2025.

Chinese consumption contracted as post-pandemic rebound has run its course.

Oil demand growth slowed to 710,000 in 2024, the lowest quarterly increase in over a year.

Lowers 2025 oil demand growth outlook by 50,000 bpd to 980,000 bpd.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, WTI is holding steady at around $81.50.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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