NY Fed survey on consumer expectations: One year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior

July 8, 2024 3:28 pm

one year expectations

  • 1 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior
  • 3 year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% prior
  • 5 year inflation 2.8% vs 3.0% prior
  • Expected home price rise 3% vs 3.3% prior
  • Consumers see slower price growth for rent, food, medical care, college and gas
  • Expected year-ahead earnings growth best since Sept 2023
  • Perceptions of household financial situation lost ground in June
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 2.4 percentage points to 14.8%

The absolute levels aren’t indicative but the trend is. On that front, expectations fell in two of the three timelines and even three-year inflation is below pre-pandemic levels.

Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased for all goods in the survey, by 0.5 percentage point for gas to 4.3%, 0.5 percentage point for food to 4.8%, 1.7 percentage points for the cost of medical care to 7.4%, 2.6 percentage points for rent to 6.5%, and 3.1 percentage points for the cost of a college education to 5.3% (the series’ lowest level since December 2020).

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated slightly with more respondents reporting being worse off than a year ago, and fewer respondents reporting being better off. Expectations about households’ year-ahead financial situations were less dispersed with fewer respondents expecting to be better off a year from now ago, and fewer respondents expecting to be worse off.

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