Quick sketch of where to for the USD under Biden and Trump

July 10, 2024 2:29 am

RBC tiptoe into the political minefield of the US election. It’s a critical event ahead, so we are all going to have to.

On the USD, RBC cite election uncertainty:

  • “Until we have more clarity on post-election policy, our 2025 dollar profile remains pretty flat,”

Analysts paint a broad outline of scenarios under the two sides:

  • If Biden wins the extension of status quo would leave the dollar little changed on political influences

If Trump wins, its “wildcard” for the US dollar:

  • Trump would probably lean on the Fed to cut rates, a USD negative
  • on the other hand his big tariff policy imports to the USD could be dollar positive

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