- Gold price scales higher for the second straight day and is supported by a combination of factors.
- Geopolitical risks, along with softer US bond yields, drive haven flows towards the XAU/USD.
- Bets for less aggressive Fed rate cuts underpin the USD bulls and cap gains for the commodity.
Gold price (XAU/USD) sticks to its intraday gains heading into the European session and is currently placed around the $2,622-2,623 area, just below a one-week high touched earlier this Tuesday. Geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to benefit the safe-haven precious metal for the second straight day. The flight to safety leads to a further softening of the US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor driving flows towards the non-yielding commodity.
Meanwhile, expectations are that US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will rekindle inflationary pressures and limit the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This helps limit the downside for the US bond yields, which, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) to stall its corrective pullback from the year-to-date touched last week and acts as a headwind for the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for further gains.
Gold price is underpinned by reviving safe-haven demand; bullish USD caps gains
- US President Joe Biden’s decision to authorize Ukraine to use long-range American missiles against military targets inside Russia prompted some haven flows and benefited the Gold price on Monday.
- The US Dollar extended its profit-taking slide from the year-to-date high touched last week on the back of retreating US Treasury bond yields and provided an additional boost to the XAU/USD.
- The precious metal attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Tuesday, though reduced bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve might cap the upside.
- US President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration is expected to focus on lowering taxes and raising tariffs, which could stoke inflation and limit the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy.
- A slew of influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, recently suggested caution in cutting rates, which, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should cap the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Tuesday’s US economic docket features the release of Building Permits and Housing Starts. Adding to this, a speech by Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will drive the USD later during the US session.
- The focus, however, will remain glued to manufacturing and service sector PMI data on Friday, which could offer early cues on how companies are reacting to the threat of Trump’s proposed trade tariffs.
Gold price might struggle to capitalize on its recovery move amid bearish technical setup
The overnight strong move up comes on the back of last week’s resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the momentum pushed the Gold price beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective decline from the all-time peak and underpins prospects for additional intraday gains. That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering from lower levels – are yet to confirm a positive bias. Hence, any subsequent strength is more likely to face stiff resistance near the $2,634-2,635 region or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $2,655-2,657 congestion zone en route to the $2,664-2,665 area.
On the flip side, the $2,600 mark, which coincided with the 23.6% Fibo. level, now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break might expose the next relevant support near the $2,569-2,568 region and eventually drag the Gold price to the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,551-2,550 area. Some follow-through selling below last week’s swing low, around the $2,536 zone, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for a fall towards the $2,500 psychological mark.
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