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September 24, 2022 3:49 pm | Uncategorized
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Why the lower PPI result means higher US inflation
January 14, 2025 11:52 pm | FOREX NEWS
The PPI data for December came in lower than expected:
Good news? Yes … but there is a but. The components that feed into core PCE (PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – more on this below if you are interested) bumped higher.
The PPI inflation report will influence the December PCE inflation data:
- Citi now expects core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) to rise 0.21% month-over-month in December, slightly higher than their earlier estimate.
- Similarly, Morgan Stanley has raised its projection to 0.23%. This signals a potential acceleration compared to November’s 0.1% increase.
- Some Fed officials aim for the 12-month core PCE inflation to slow closer to the 2% target before easing interest rates.
The PCE data will be released on January 31. Ahead of that is the CPI inflation data, due Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT):
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In summary, the PCE’s broader coverage, flexibility, and regular updates make it a more accurate and stable indicator for the Fed to assess inflation and guide monetary policy effectively.
Comparison with CPI
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If you want even more …
The Federal Reserve prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as its primary inflation measure because it offers a broader, more accurate, and flexible view of consumer spending and price changes. Here are the key reasons:
1. Broad Coverage of Goods and Services
- The PCE captures a more comprehensive range of goods and services than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which focuses on urban households.
- It includes expenditures by individuals and institutions, such as spending on behalf of households by employers or government programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
2. Changing Consumer Behavior
- The PCE accounts for substitution effects—when consumers switch to cheaper alternatives as prices rise. This reflects real-world behavior more accurately than the CPI, which uses a fixed basket of goods and services.
- This dynamic adjustment makes the PCE less volatile and more reflective of actual consumer purchasing patterns.
3. Consistent Weighting
- The PCE uses current expenditure weights, which are updated regularly to reflect changing consumer habits. In contrast, the CPI uses fixed weights that are updated less frequently, which can make it slower to adapt to economic shifts.
4. Scope and Data Sources
- The PCE is derived from business surveys, administrative data, and household surveys, providing a robust and wide-ranging data set.
- The CPI relies heavily on household surveys, which can be less reliable due to sampling and reporting issues.
5. Core PCE for Policy Focus
- The Core PCE (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is particularly useful for the Fed. It provides a clearer signal of underlying inflation trends, helping the Fed make informed policy decisions without reacting to short-term volatility.
6. Alignment with the Fed’s Dual Mandate
- The PCE aligns better with the Fed’s dual mandate of promoting price stability and maximum employment, as it gives a more stable and long-term view of inflation trends.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Former Japan MoF official says Trump and Japan can work together to send USD/JPY lower
January 14, 2025 11:31 pm | FOREX NEWS
Tatsuo Yamasaki is a former Japanese vice minister of finance for international affairs.
He spoke with Japanese media, Nikkei, saying Trump would do well to cooperate with Tokyo on weakening the overly strong dollar.
more to come
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australian Dollar extends gains, upside limited
January 14, 2025 11:09 pm | FOREX NEWS
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded from 0.6130, its lowest level since April 2020, to reach 0.6180 on Tuesday, buoyed by firm commodity prices and a slight improvement in market sentiment.
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Canadian Dollar catches some relief as Greenback eases
January 14, 2025 10:40 pm | FOREX NEWS
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a thin bid on Tuesday, bostlered by a general easing in US Dollar flows after US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation accelerated at a slower pace than markets expected in December.
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Feds’ WIlliams: Housing affordability main concern in Fed NY district
January 14, 2025 10:36 pm | FOREX NEWS
Fed’s William’s did not comment on monetary policy but did say:
- Housing affordability main concern in NY Fed District
- Demand for housing continues to outstrip supply.
- Housing challenges holdback New York Fed district.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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NZD/USD Price Analysis: mild bounce overshadowed by multi-year lows
January 14, 2025 10:24 pm | FOREX NEWS
The NZD/USD pair gained modestly on Tuesday, inching up to approximately 0.5600 following a prolonged slump to levels unseen since October 2022.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
Microsoft pauses hiring in US consulting unit as part of cost cutting plan
January 14, 2025 10:23 pm | FOREX NEWS
Microsoft is announcing that is wasn’t hiring in the US consulting unit as part of cost-cutting plan. The announcement comes after an earlier one from Meta that it was culling its workforce by 5%.
A small kink in the employment armor perhaps or is it the rewards of AI and increased productivity?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Crude oil snaps its three day run to the upside
January 14, 2025 10:23 pm | FOREX NEWS
The price of crude oil settled today and $77.50. That was down -$1.32 or -1.67% on the day. The fall snapped it three day streak of gains that saw some the price move up from a low of $72.84 to a high price yesterday of $79.27. The high price today reached $79.09, while the low price reached $77.41.
Technically, the price moved above a trend line yesterday. The next key target on the daily chart would be the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 2023 high. That level is at $80.15.
Today the price could not stretch any further to the upside. However, the low price did stalled against the broken trendline. That level comes in and $77.34. The low price came in at $77.41.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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EURUSD buyer make another run at the 200 hour MA
January 14, 2025 10:20 pm | FOREX NEWS
The EURUSD is moving back hgiher and is retesting its 200 hour moving average.
Recall from earlier today, the price moved up to the 200-hour moving average and found willing sellers near the level. The price rotated back to the downside stalling ahead of its 100-hour moving average at 1.0268. The low price could only reach 1.0278 before rotating back to the upside.
The price is now back up to the 200 hour MA level. Moving above that level, would have traders looking toward the swing area between 1.0332 and 1.0343. Stay below once again, and may be a prelude to a move back to the 100-hour MA and traders will decide what it wants to do then.
Decision time again at the 200 hour MA level for both buyers and sellers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Salesforce stock chosen as top 2025 pick by two Wall Street firms
January 14, 2025 10:08 pm | FOREX NEWS
Salesforce (CRM) stock is receiving the love on Tuesday after two venerable Wall Street firms added the maker of customer management software to their lists of top stock picks for the present year.
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Mexican Peso rallies as US PPI shows moderate rise
January 14, 2025 9:36 pm | FOREX NEWS
The Mexican Peso recovered some ground against the US Dollar on Tuesday after US inflation data suggested that prices paid by producers rose moderately but below economists’ estimates.
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Dollar’s flying start to the year to reverse course in H2, UBS says
January 14, 2025 9:33 pm | FOREX NEWS
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