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Gold Technical Analysis

Gold Technical Analysis

The rally in Gold looks unstoppable as many
positive drivers keep pushing the price to new highs. Gold is correlated with
real yields and those kept on falling lately due to weakening US data that led
to a fall in inflation expectations and Treasury yields. The market might have
gone too far too fast though as the rates pricing has reached five cuts in
2024, although they can easily increase if the data worsens even more. The bias
remains bullish, and the dips will likely be bought strongly, but watch out for
a quick deterioration in the data not followed by a strong Fed reaction as that
could make real yields to spike higher and weigh on Gold like it happened in
the recent two recessions.

Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Gold today
spiked higher in the APAC session amid low liquidity. The move got completely
reversed soon after with a very ugly reversal candlestick that might be a bad
omen for the buyers. Such extreme moves usually happen around short term tops and bottoms,
so the buyers might want to wait for at least a pullback into the trendline
before piling in again

Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have
another minor trendline around the 2040 level. The buyers could split their
position in half to enter both at the minor and major trendline as we cannot
know which level will hold. The sellers, on the other hand, should pile in at
every break lower with a break below the major trendline likely triggering a
selloff into the 1930 level.

Gold Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action with the big spike followed by the huge
reversal. At the moment, there’s not much to do as the price is basically in no
man’s land and both buyers and sellers should wait for the market to come into
the key levels before taking new positions. A lot will depend on the economic
data this week as we get many top tier US labour market indicators, so keep a
close eye on the data.

Upcoming Events

This week we will see lots of US labour
market data culminating with the NFP release on Friday. Tomorrow, we have the
ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings reports. On Wednesday, we will get the
US ADP data. On Thursday, it will be the time for the US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the NFP report. The playbook
should continue to be the same with weak data boosting Gold and strong figures
leading to pullbacks.

This article was written by FL Contributors at

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Dollar keeps steady to start the new week

Dollar keeps steady to start the new week

The dollar is keeping steadier so far in European trading, as risk sentiment is looking a bit nervy to start the new week. The greenback is mostly higher across the board, only down marginally against the Japanese yen. In the bond market, Treasury yields are a touch higher so that is perhaps helping to give the greenback a bit more of a steadying hand on the session.

10-year Treasury yields are up 2.5 bps to 4.249% currently. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% so that isn’t doing much to help commodity currencies at the moment.

AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6645 while USD/CAD is up 0.4% to 1.3545 as oil prices are also sitting lower on the day.

The euro continues to struggle after last week’s fall, following softer inflation data which sped up ECB rate cut odds to April next year. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0863 as the retreat from the highs around 1.1000 continue to play out for now.

There’s not much else to work with to start the new week, as market players are eyeing major central bank decisions this week and the next. Adding to that will be the US non-farm payrolls and US CPI data. As such, those will be more important risk events to drive trading sentiment, as opposed to the slower pace we’re seeing so far.

In other markets, gold is down 0.2% to $2,067 currently after a surge higher earlier today, which begs the question: Has gold peaked too early in the cycle?

This article was written by Justin Low at

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Exclusive: Andrew Gibson to Launch His New CFDs Brokerage in March

Exclusive: Andrew Gibson to Launch His New CFDs Brokerage in March

Andrew Gibson, a veteran of the forex and contracts for differences (CFDs) industry, has left his executive role at Tavira Financial (previously Tavira Securities) to launch Timberfx as a Co-Founder, Finance Magnates learned exclusively. He is the major shareholder in the new brokerage brand and holds the position of Chief Executive Officer.

Timberfx to Offer Services with a Seychelles License

With an expected launch date of 1 March 2024, Timberfx is now in the process of securing a license from the Seychelles regulator.

The new brokerage brand will offer trading services with forex and contracts for differences instruments. It will also provide crypto CFDs and non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Initially, all the trading services will be offered on MetaTrader 5, with the possibility of adding other platforms as well.

Speaking to Finance Magnates, Gibson revealed that services and support for the new brokerage will be offered from its offices in Cyprus. He is now focused on securing staff for the full-fledged start of operations from January.

“We will offer some innovative pricing structures to IBs,” Gibson told Finance Magnates, adding his platform will take a unique approach with “educational services and training” and “automated bespoke trading strategies.”

He further highlighted that it is expensive to launch a brokerage brand with costs covering license purchase, license purchase, legal fees, company incorporations, and websites.

Despite the challenges, he said he launched the brand as it “seemed like the way to get noticed as a ‘fresh face’ in a crowded market.”

A New Broker by a FX/CFDs Industry Veteran

Gibson brings 40 years of financial industry experience to his new brokerage brand. As seen on his LinkedIn profile, he started his career in the financial services industry in 1986 and spent years at many well-known brands.

He started Timberfx after spending a couple of years at Tavira Financial as the Head of Product Development for FX and CFDs. Before that, he spent three years at Cyprus-based Alfa Capital Markets, first as the Head of Institutional FX Sales and then as the Head of Institutional Sales.

Other prominent brands where Gibson held crucial positions are BCS Financial Group, Fastmatch, TradAirTradAir, ABN AMRO Clearing Bank, Fortis Bank Global Clearing, TraderTools, and a few others.

This article was written by Arnab Shome at

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Key Revenue Recognition Questions Every Paytech Company Needs to Answer

Key Revenue Recognition Questions Every Paytech Company Needs to Answer

The payment services landscape has always posed regulatory challenges. From PCI-DSS to complying with BSA rules, paytechs have always invested resources into following the law. However, revenue recognition might be the most challenging process paytechs deal with.

More than recurring revenue firms, paytech companies find ASC 606 (the IRS revenue recognition guidelines) tough to decipher. While revenue recognition software automates several aspects of these workflows, it doesn’t always aid in analyzing base conditions.

Factors like principal versus agent and the nature of goods delivered blur in the payment services world, leading to challenges. Here are four questions that every paytech finance leader must have answers to before recognizing revenue.

Who is the customer?

ASC 606 defines a customer as an entity that orders goods and services in line with the seller’s ordinary activities. For some payment processors, identifying a customer is straightforward. Merchants are usually the customer, since they’re the ones requiring payment processing services.

However, other payment processing entities can find themselves in a gray zone. For instance, a payment facilitator (payfac) entering a contract with an independent sales organization (ISO) might find answering this question a bit tricky. The ISO resells the payfac’s product, but who is the customer here? Is it the merchant or the ISO?

In most cases, payfacs tend to earmark the ISO as a customer, but this arrangement needs special examination if the payfac delivers support services directly to merchants.

A similar scenario arises if a payfac integrates with an independent software vendor (ISV.) The ISV facilitates payments for individual merchants on its platform, and merchants reach out to the payfac directly when issues arise. Is the ISV or the merchant the customer in this case?

Practically speaking, payfacs tag ISVs and ISOs as their customers, but it’s recommended that finance teams turn to experts for help in determining if their business conditions might throw this arrangement awry.

What are the promised goods and services?

On the surface, identifying the specified goods and services is simple. However, a paytech’s choices in identifying them have a knock-on effect on the remaining guidelines in ASC 606.

As a result, classifying services becomes challenging in a hurry. For instance, some payment processors facilitate access to the acquiring bank, acting as a payment gateway. In this case, the gateway is clearly the service offered.

However, many processors also act as an outsourced payment tech stack, offering everything from infrastructure to transaction clearing. In this case, they bill clients for these services as a package. However, per ASC 606’s requirements, recognizing services as part of a bundle isn’t so straightforward.

The guidelines state that each service must be distinct and separately identifiable to qualify as a separate service. Is preauthorization distinct from authorization? Is batching distinct from routing? Probably not, since no customer prefers one without the other, failing the “distinctiveness” test.

Paytechs can recognize these features as combined services, but this puts them in a different position when identifying as a principal or agent (as we’ll detail below), and that complicates revenue recognition.

In short, paytechs must tread carefully with this ASC 606 guideline since their choices here have knock-on effects down the road. While identifying services is simple, choosing to recognize them as distinct ones or a bundle is a task for a person with revenue recognition expertise.

Is the platform the principal or agent?

Principal and agent determination is likely the most important aspect of a paytech’s revenue recognition workflow. The company’s choice directly impacts the revenue it records on its income statement. Briefly, companies acting as principals record gross revenue earned from the service on their books.

A principal paying fees to other parties in the ecosystem will recognize that money as the cost of goods sold (COGS). In contrast, agents record net revenue earned from the service as total revenue earned on their books. Using the same example, a principal will deduct fees paid to other entities from top-line revenue and record that number as total revenue on its books.

This choice significantly affects revenues since the difference between gross and net revenue earned from a service is significant.

At first glance, paytechs might be tempted to tag themselves as principals and recognize their services as a bundle. However, the IRS mandates that principals control every aspect of the service they deliver. Does a paytech really control authorization workflows, or does the acquiring bank do so? Most payment industry professionals will say the bank controls authorization, along with prices in that workflow.

Faulty recognition at this point will lead to hefty fines. Paytechs must use the services of qualified auditors to help them navigate this choice, since it heavily impacts their bottom lines.

What are the performance obligations?

Identifying performance obligations lies downstream from the principal versus agent question.

The two questions are directly tied to each other, and many auditors consider the issues to be two parts of the same criterion. However, there are a few distinct points to warrant making this a separate criterion.

For starters, companies acting as principals must tag services they fully control as a combined performance obligation, recognizing the gross revenue they receive from it. When acting as an agent, the company must identify distinct services, tag them as separate performance obligations, and record net revenue.

Often, paytechs will run into issues at this step. Their distinct service might not stand out as a performance obligation due to timing and delivery modes, leading to revenue recognition confusion.

As always, using the services of a highly qualified auditor is critical to getting this step right.

Getting revenue recognition right is critical to growth

Revenue recognition for paytechs is far more complex than other businesses due to the nature of services offered. Paytech firms must walk themselves through the questions above with the help of a qualified professional to determine where they stand.

This article was written by FM Contributors at

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Market Outlook for the Week of 4-8 December

Market Outlook for the Week of 4-8 December

Last week was marked by the RBNZ’s decision to maintain its official cash rate, which was interpreted as a hawkish stance by the market. Furthermore, they revised their rate projections, indicating that “if inflationary pressure were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further.”

In the U.S., Fed’s Waller made some dovish comments hinting at potential rate cuts. It will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks if other Fed members share the same perspective, and particularly if Chair Powell does as well. I believe Powell will be reserved with expressing such views for now.

Looking ahead to this week, several important economic events are on the horizon.Monday kicks off at a slow pace, with ECB President Lagarde scheduled to discuss monetary policy at the Academy of Moral and Political Sciences in Paris.

Tuesday brings notable releases, including the Tokyo Core CPI y/y for Japan; the RBA policy announcement and cash rate for Australia; the Final Services PMIs for the eurozone and the U.K.; and the ISM Services PMI for the U.S. Additionally, the FOMC Financial Stability Report is scheduled, and New Zealand will report Employment Change q/q and the unemployment rate.

Wednesday features Australia’s GDP q/q, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for the U.S. and the BoC rate statement and Overnight rate for Canada. BoE Gov Bailey will also hold a press conference on the Financial Stability Report in London.

Thursday’s highlight is the Unemployment Claims report for the U.S., while Friday will see other important U.S. data releases, including the average hourly earnings m/m, the Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate, the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and the Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.

The consensus for the Tokyo Core CPI y/y is a drop from 2.7% to 2.4%. This is still a bit above the BoJ’s target, but not unusually high compared with other economically developed countries. However, analysts argue the spike in last month’s inflation data was likely caused by volatility in fresh food prices and fewer subsidies for utilities in October. For this print, the downtrend should resume as fresh food prices moderated last month and signs point to processed foods and manufactured goods prices also having peaked.

At this week’s meeting, the RBA is expected to maintain rates unchanged. Australia experienced lower-than-expected inflation figures for October, suggesting no immediate need for the RBA to act. There are currently no signs that inflation might surge again making another rate increase now, after the 25bps hike in November, very unlikely. However, analysts believe that another hike might be possible in February if the base effects prevent inflation from continuing to decline. The RBA will have sufficient data until then to assess whether the current rates are adequate.

The consensus for the U.S. ISM Services PMI is to rise from 51.8 to 52.5. The Fed’s tightening did not slow down demand in the services sector which still remains in expansionary territory. Last month, the index dipped to 51.8, indicating a somewhat slower increase, but consumers continue to spend on services with personal services expenditures having climbed higher for 20 of the past 21 months, according to Wells Fargo.

The U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment is expected to rise from 113K to 120K. However, this report is not supposed to create any volatility in the market, unless it deviates a lot from expectations. Everyone will be waiting for Friday’s jobs data for more clarity on the labor market.

The BoC monetary policy announcement will be one of the most awaited events of this week. While the consensus is for the Bank to maintain its overnight rate unchanged, market participants will be looking for any hints regarding future decisions. The BoC might look to guide the market away from pricing in rate cuts for the beginning of next year. Although inflation data has moderated recently, it might be too early for rate decreases and the bank will likely want to wait for more data.

The most notable event on Thursday will be the unemployment claims in the U.S. which are expected to rise from 218K to 221K. Last month’s jobs data — 150K new jobs compared to 297K in September — pointed to a labor market slowdown which had been widely anticipated since the Fed started its tightening cycle. The consensus for non-farm employment change in November is a rise from 150K to 185K but analysts from Well Fargo expect even higher growth (230K). However, this spike is likely fueled by the end of the UAW and Hollywood’s actors strike as well as a late survey timing which will capture more seasonal holiday hires. Overall, they expect for softening labor demand to remain a theme moving forward.The average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% from prior 0.2% and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.9%.

For the Prelim UoM Consumer sentiment expectations are for a rise from 61.3 to 62.0. This will be a slight improvement, but consumers remain concerned about current and future conditions and this was reflected in last month’s print when the index dropped to 61.3.

What worries consumers most is the possibility of rising gas prices and inflation running hot again. Consumer year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5% in November despite inflation currently receding suggesting that price increases coupled with higher interest rates will remain top of mind for some time.

USD/CAD expectations

On the H1 chart the pair closed the week near the 1.3480 level of support. From there a correction is expected until 1.3580 or even 1.3655 and if those resistance levels don’t hold, the next target could be 1.3420.

On the upside, the next resistance levels are at 1.3730 and 1.3815.

From a fundamental standpoint, the latest U.S. labor market has been softening. This isn’t favorable news for the USD, but it is likely to bolster the CAD in the short term. Compared to the U.S., recent jobs market data for Canada surpassed expectations, contributing to the CAD’s strength, especially over the past week. It’s important to note that this week will bring a substantial amount of new data for both the USD and the CAD.

Analysts at Citi point out that even if employment data for Canada printed above expectations, full-time job additions were not unusually high for the month and not enough to counter the substantial growth in population, which is why the unemployment rate continued to rise.

This article was written by Gina Constantin.

This article was written by FL Contributors at

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Yen risks and wins. Forecast as of 04.12.2023

Yen risks and wins. Forecast as of 04.12.2023

The uptrend in the US dollar against the Japanese yen looks so strong that hedge funds and insurance companies do not believe it will reverse. They say that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates when others cut borrowing costs. Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up a USDJPY trading plan. FundamentalJapanese yen forecast for six months Which is right, markets or central banks? Numerous stories of the Fed punishing investors for their overconfidence during the current monetary tightening cycle have made them wary of market signals. However, as we know, those who don’t take risks don’t… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance

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