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What does a 60% drop in US imports from China look like?
Ryan Petersen from Flexport today highlights that it’s been 3 weeks since large US tariffs were put on China and that ocean container bookings are down over 60% across the industry.
He notes that the US imports $600 billion in goods (though I think the correct number is $460 billion) from China annually and those goods retail for around $2 trillion.
He said the first ships carrying goods that will be hit with the full rates arrived on Monday and the decline in freight will start to hit in the following weeks, though it will take awhile to hit retail because of a build in inventories.
Petersen also worries that an undoing of the tariffs will eventually cause a separate set of problems as ships are now being repositioned globally and that a surge in orders later could overwhelm the network — particularly if a reprieve in China tariffs is seen as temporary.
I don’t think anyone really knows how this will play out as many of the imports are intermediate goods and components for finished products. My guess is that this ultimately ends in a boom for transshipment and smuggling but it could easily be covid all over again or result in surprisingly little downsides. It’s truly uncharted waters.
“It’s a strange time in the logistics world as we have to plan for the unimaginable (autarky in the United States) while hedging for regression to the mean (relatively normal trade relations),” Petersen writes.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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US Dollar softens as possible tariff cut and weak PMI weigh on sentiment
The US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to hold onto its early strength during Wednesday’s session and now drifts near the 99.50 region, reflecting continued uncertainty around US trade policy and softening business momentum.
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Fed’s Beige Book: The outlook worsens due to uncertainty spurred by tariffs
Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions, most of which focuses on the economy’s general overview, inflation, and employment.
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Crude oil futures settles $62.27
Crude oil futures is settling at $62.27. That is down $1.40 or -2.20%.
There was a report earlier today that several OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated oil output increase for June at meeting on May 5. The news sent the price to a low for the day at $61.55. That low took the price below the 200 hour MA at $61.95 but the price has moved back above that MA in to the settlement.
Staying above is more neutral technically, A move above the higher 100 hour MA at $62.94 would be more bullish. Conversely, a move back below the 200 hour MA would tilt the bias lower.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Exclusive Dinner With Trump Sends $TRUMP Meme Coin Up 60%
A private
dinner invitation from Donald Trump sent ripples through the crypto market this
week, triggering a sharp price rally for his namesake token.
The
invitation, revealed on the project’s official website, offers the top 220
holders of the TRUMP meme coin a seat at an exclusive gala dinner with the U.S. President. This event instantly drove demand and speculation around the
controversial token.
Price Surges
on Gala Dinner Reveal
Within hours
of the announcement, which was made on the Trump Meme website, the TRUMP token
surged over 60%, rising from $9.18 to a high of $14.7 before plunging to $12.61,
according to CoinMarketCap data.
The market
responded swiftly as traders speculated on the social and financial value of
gaining direct access to a sitting president. The dinner, scheduled for May 22
at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C., will only be hosted by those who
verify their holdings through a connected digital wallet.
Only the
largest wallet holders will be allowed to attend, and the vetting process is
strict. Participants must pass a personal background check, cannot come from a
KYC watchlist country, and are prohibited from bringing guests. All expenses
related to the event, including travel, accommodation, and transportation, must
be covered by attendees themselves.
Participation
Comes With Strings Attached
The TRUMP
token, launched just days before Trump’s January inauguration, has sparked
waves of controversy since its debut. Critics within the crypto community and
on Capitol Hill have raised concerns that the token could allow anonymous
foreign entities to funnel money directly to a U.S. President.
Lawmakers
have warned that the project lacks transparency and could violate campaign
finance or ethics rules. Nonetheless, the promise of exclusive access to Trump
has attracted attention from investors who are willing to take the risk.
Despite
peaking with a market cap of $14 billion shortly after its launch, the token
saw a dramatic pullback, halving in value by January 20. It now trades at a
market cap of roughly $2.6 billion, but the recent rally has sparked renewed
interest and scrutiny.
As the May
22 dinner approaches, the TRUMP token remains in the spotlight, both for its
performance and the political and ethical questions surrounding its existence.
Whether this event marks a turning point or a temporary boost remains to be
seen.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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Beige Book: Economic activity was little changed, outlook in some districts worsened
- Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive
- A few more districts than previously reported declines in employment
- Several districts reported firms taking a “wait-and-see approach to employment” while others are actively “preparing for layoffs.”
- The outlook in several districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty around tariffs rose
- Prices increased across districts, similarly to the prior report
- Businesses are rushing to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases
- Non-auto consumer spending declined overall, though vehicle sales showed strength as buyers rushed to purchase ahead of expected tariff increases
- Both leisure and business travel were reported down, with several districts noting a decline in international visitors, particularly from Canada
- Businesses across multiple sectors reporting they’ve put major decisions on pause due to uncertainty.
- NY district: “Service sector firms reported a major pullback in planned investment.”
This report was reported from data prior to April 15.
The key line was that “the outlook in several Districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, rose.”
Overall this report does little to pushback on the idea that an economic slowdown is coming.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Leavitt: There will be no unilateral reduction in tariffs against China
So we have the Treasury Secretary and White House spokeswoman saying this but she is also saying that it’s up to Trump on what the China tariff rate will be.
That gets to the heart of the issue: Even if they’re saying this, Trump often changes his mind.
You used to be able to assume that Trump would do whatever was best for the stock market but that’s no longer the case.
Also: Trump will speak at 5 pm ET.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast:GBP/USD slips beneath 1.3300 as USD gains on Powell relief
The Pound Sterling (GBP) depreciates against the Greenback on Wednesday, yet slightly recovered after diving to four-day lows of 1.3230.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
Gold sinks as risk appetite improves on Trump-Powell calm, China tariff relief hopes
Gold prices plunged more than 2.50% on Wednesday as risk appetite improved due to a possible de-escalation of US-China tensions and US President Donald Trump’s statement that he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
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New Eurex Futures to Offer Hedging for European Union Bonds
Eurex has announced that it will launch futures on EU bonds
starting in September. The new instrument aims to give traders a way to hedge
exposure or gain market access and comes at a time when interest in futures is
rising, especially among prop trading companies.
Futures to Strengthen EU Debt Market
The Euro-EU Bond Futures (FBEU) contract will be
physically deliverable and complement existing trading in EU bonds across cash
and repo markets.
“The launch of the Euro-EU Bond Futures is more than
just a new product for Eurex,” said Matthias Graulich, Global Head of Products &
Markets at Eurex. “It is a strategic commitment to supporting European ambitions
for greater autonomy at a time when the continent is relying on additional debt
issuance and investors are seeking tailored tools to manage their exposure to
EU debt.”
Eurex said the product will help improve liquidity and
align the EU more closely with major sovereign issuers like Germany, France,
and the US—markets where futures already play a key role in bond pricing and
risk management.
The launch follows close cooperation with the European
Commission and market participants. The EU, now among the largest borrowers
globally with over €600 billion in outstanding debt, has reportedly seen its
bonds reach liquidity levels comparable to national governments.
Risk Tools for a Growing Debt Market
According to the announcement, the new contract will
cover EU bonds maturing between 8 and 12 years and offer a fixed 6% coupon,
mirroring Eurex’s other 10-year sovereign bond futures.
Eurex’s initiative also follows a similar step by ICE,
which launched futures on an EU bond index in late 2024. However, Eurex’s
product will be unique in its physical delivery and integration into
established fixed income markets.
Sean Kozak, the CEO of the Canadian-based prop firm Tickblaze, recently explained why prop trading companies are now opting for
regulated futures.
In a post on LinkedIn, Kozak listed some of the reasons, including capital efficiency, execution quality, volatility edge, regulatory environment,
and trader talent.
“When markets are super volatile, prop firms can’t
afford to experience slippage or latency, which is common for retail platforms.
But futures markets offer institutional-grade infrastructure that those
platforms simply can’t match,” he said.
“Some of the benefits of futures are direct exchange
access and low-latency routing, transparent order books with real-time depth,
and consistent fill logic during high-volume times.”
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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ECB’s Knot: A US tariff of 25% on imports would lower GDP by about 0.3 pp
- Tariffs would leave a persistent decrease in output
- In the near term, inflation might fall faster than March projections due to energy and uncertainty
- Global supply chains could put upward pressure on prices in the medium term
- Dynamics of underlying inflation are looking good at the moment
- Before US tariffs announcement I would have favored a hold in March
There isn’t much of a signal here. Right now the market is focused on the trade war.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
USDCAD extends to the upside
The USDCAD has moved higher in the North American session, breaking back above a key swing area between 1.38078 and 1.38499 (highlighted by the red numbered circles on the chart). The rally has taken the pair up to a session high near 1.3890.
On the 4-hour chart, the next upside target comes into focus near the 1.3930 level—a key resistance zone to watch if bullish momentum continues.
Drilling down to the hourly chart, the pair has also broken above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. The 100-hour MA was cleared at 1.3832, followed by the 200-hour MA at 1.3861. Holding above these levels keeps the buyers in control from a technical standpoint.
A move back below the 200- and 100-hour MAs would weaken that bullish outlook and suggest a potential shift back toward neutral or bearish bias.
The buyers are making a play, but there is work to do from a technical perspective.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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