The USD/JPY experienced a volatile session yesterday, initially moving higher before reversing lower. This decline occurred despite a modest rise in yields. Commentary from Fed officials offered mixed signals, with Fed’s Waller leaning toward a rate cut and Fed’s Bostic taking a more non-committal stance. Meanwhile, ISM data was mixed, adding to the uncertainty, but the pair still saw downward pressure.
The decline in USD/JPY pushed the price below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September low (150.18) and the psychological support level at 150.00. Selling momentum continued, driving the price toward the 100-day moving average (currently at 148.95). The pair came within 4 pips of this key level before finding buyers, sparking a bounce higher.
In today’s trading, the pair’s recovery has gained momentum, with the price climbing to a session high of 149.92. For the bullish momentum to continue, the pair must reclaim the 150.00 level, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 150.18. A break above these levels would provide buyers with greater confidence and pave the way for further upside, especially after the successful defense of the 100-day moving average.
However, failure to recapture these levels keeps sellers in control. While buyers have managed to defend a critical support zone, they have yet to decisively win the broader battle. For now, the pair is caught in a tug-of-war, with key support at the 100-day moving average (148.95) and resistance at the 150.18 retracement level.
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