Initial reaction: Stocks still negative but off lows. Yields and USD not biting. Higher.

March 13, 2025 2:35 pm

The US stocks were lower going into the US PPI, and did erase some of the gains but is take away those gains. The futures are Implying

  • Dow industrial average -75 points
  • S&P index -13 point
  • NASDAQ index -84 points

Looking at the US yields:

  • 2-year yield 4.009%, +1.4 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.099%, +2.1 basis points.
  • 10 year yield 4.341%, +2.5 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.656%, +2.6 basis points.

The EURUSD is trading to new lows. Some of that may have to do with Trump’s post on Truth Social that if whiskey tariffs increased by 50% in the US, that he would counter with a 200% tariff on wine, champagne, and spirits. US Commerce Sec. Lutnick also said that the EU does not get it with regard to the tariff situation.

For the USDJPY, the pair remains between its 100 and 200 hour MAs on the hourly chart below (blue and green lines). Traders will be eyeing the next shove away from this neutral area.

Looking at the GBPUSD, it is holding the 200-hour MA and the broken 61.8% of the move down from the September 2024 high near 1.2922. Whereas US Commerce Sec. Lutnick criticized the EU, he praised the UK on its tariff approach. The 100 hour moving average has held support on two separate occasions now (yesterday and again today – see blueline on the chart below), increasing the levels importance today and going forward.

The

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