Markets fired on all cylinders Thursday after the U.S. posted a stronger-than-expected jobs report, sending the dollar surging and gold tumbling as Fed rate cut hopes took a hit.
Stocks rallied, Treasury yields climbed to fresh highs, and Bitcoin managed to defy the usual macro moves with steady gains while oil swung on dollar strength and supply concerns.
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- U.K. PM Starmer has backed Rachel Reeves to remain Chancellor for “many years to come”
- Australia Balance of Trade for May 2025: 2.24B (5.2B forecast; 5.41B previous)
- China Caixin Services PMI for June 2025: 50.6 (51.3 forecast; 51.1 previous)
- BOJ member Takata said the Bank stands ready to resume policy tightening if U.S. trade talks progress
- South Korea President Lee Jae Myung said “very difficult” U.S. tariff negotiations may not be concluded before the July 9 deadline
- Swiss Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for June 2025: 0.1% y/y (-0.1% y/y forecast; -0.1% y/y previous); 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
- Germany HCOB Services PMI Final for June 2025: 49.7 (49.4 forecast; 47.1 previous)
- Euro area HCOB Services PMI Final for June 2025: 50.5 (50.0 forecast; 49.7 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Final for June 2025: 52.8 (51.3 forecast; 50.9 previous)
- Canada Balance of Trade for May 2025: -5.9B (-6.4B forecast; -7.14B previous)
- U.S. Balance of Trade for May 2025: -71.5B (-72.0B forecast; -61.6B previous)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for June 28, 2025: 233.0k (240.0k forecast; 236.0k previous)
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U.S. June jobs reports:
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for June 2025: 147.0k (100.0k forecast; 139.0k previous)
- U.S. Unemployment Rate for June 2025: 4.1% (4.2% forecast; 4.2% previous)
- U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for June 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous); 3.7% y/y (3.9% y/y forecast; 3.9% y/y previous)
- U.S. Participation Rate for June 2025: 62.3% (62.3% forecast; 62.4% previous)
- U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final for June 2025: 52.9 (53.1 forecast; 53.7 previous)
- U.S. Factory Orders for May 2025: 8.2% m/m (9.5% m/m forecast; -3.7% m/m previous)
- U.S. ISM Services PMI for June 2025: 50.8 (49.7 forecast; 49.9 previous)
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said about 100 countries are likely to see a reciprocal tariff rate of 10% after July 9
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
The major assets were all over the charts on Thursday as traders took in a blowout U.S. jobs report. The NFP numbers sparked big moves across the board, reinforcing the idea that the Fed might need to keep rates higher for longer.
Global equities took the news in stride. The Dow shot higher as investors bet on solid economic momentum, even if it means tighter policy down the line. European markets were choppy, reacting to both their own PMI reads and the strong U.S. print. Treasury yields jumped too, with the 10-year pushing to 4.35% as traders priced in the higher-rate backdrop.
Gold took a beating, falling from $2,360 to around $2,325 as the dollar powered up and safe-haven demand dried up. WTI crude oil swung between $66.50 and $67.50, pressured early by the stronger dollar but later lifted by supply concerns ahead of the July 6 OPEC+ meeting. Bitcoin stood out, climbing from $109,200 to near $109,800, showing once again that crypto’s carving out its own lane instead of dancing to the usual macro tune.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The Greenback picked up early support during the Asian session, likely as traders reacted to the Vietnam deal headlines and squared positions ahead of the all-important U.S. jobs report. In early European trading, the dollar eased a bit after mixed PMI data, with Swiss CPI and Eurozone services figures giving regional currencies a short-lived lift.
But the tone shifted once the U.S. labor numbers hit. The stronger-than-expected report sent the dollar sharply higher, reinforcing the view that the Fed can afford to take its time with any rate cuts. Whatever impact the European data had was quickly overshadowed as the focus snapped back to the growing policy divide between the Fed and the ECB.
The dollar stayed firm through the U.S. session. It saw a few minor pullbacks but still closed stronger across the board, with the Canadian dollar being the lone standout. EUR/USD slipped despite earlier PMI support. USD/JPY pushed higher as strong jobs data outweighed safe-haven flows. The pound struggled to find its footing, and even the Swiss franc lost ground as traders braced for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Swiss Unemployment Rate for June 2025 at 5:45 am GMT
- Germany Factory Orders for May 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- Germany HCOB Construction PMI for June 2025 at 7:30 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Construction PMI for June 2025 at 7:30 am GMT
- Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 7:30 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI for June 2025 at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area PPI for May 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Canada S&P Global Services PMI for June 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
With U.S. markets closed for the holiday, the spotlight could shift to mid-tier data out of Europe and how traders adjust their Fed rate cut expectations after Thursday’s blockbuster jobs report.
Keep a close eye on your euro setups and any chart signals that might hint at end-of-week positioning. Things could move faster than you’d expect with thinner liquidity!
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
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