Last week delivered whipsaw trading as markets digested conflicting signals. Friday’s softer U.S. CPI—2.4% versus 2.5% forecast—briefly reignited rate-cut hopes, but the real story unfolded Wednesday when January’s blockbuster payrolls crushed expectations positively, only to be undermined by devastating benchmark revisions showing 2025 actually added just 181,000 jobs instead of the initially reported 584,000. Markets finished the week without clear conviction on whether the Fed’s next move comes sooner or later. This week brings a back-loaded calendar with Wednesday’s Fed minutes serving as appetizer before Friday’s main course: advance Q4 GDP and December PCE inflation data—the Fed’s preferred gauge. With U.S. markets closed Monday for Presidents Day, the action compresses into four days featuring critical eurozone PMIs, UK inflation data that could seal a March BOE rate cut, and RBA minutes confirming Australia’s hawkish pivot.
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