Financial & Forex Market Recap: March 10, 2026

Markets whipsawed through Tuesday’s session as escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran drove extreme volatility in oil prices, with crude plunging early in the U.S. session amid reports of potential strategic petroleum reserve releases even as President Trump warned Iran against mining the Strait of Hormuz. Equities struggled to find direction amid the energy market turbulence, while the U.S. dollar traded choppy before closing mixed but arguably net higher against most major currencies as geopolitical risk appetite fluctuated throughout the session.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change for March 2026: 1.2% (-1.1% forecast; -2.6% previous)
• Japan Household Spending for January 2026: -2.5% m/m (3.1% m/m forecast; -2.9% m/m previous); -1.0% y/y (-2.2% y/y forecast; -2.6% y/yprevious)
• Japan GDP Growth Annualized Final for December 2025: 1.3% y/y (0.2% y/y forecast; -2.3% y/y previous)
  • Japan GDP Price Index Final for December 31, 2025: 0.3% q/q (0.1% q/q forecast; -0.6% q/q previous); 3.4% y/y (3.4% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous)
• U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor for February 2026: 0.7% y/y (1.1% y/y forecast; 2.3% y/y previous)
• Australia Building Permits Final for January 2026: -7.2% m/m (-7.2% m/m forecast; -14.9% m/m previous); -15.7% y/y (-15.7% y/y forecast; 0.4% y/y previous)
• Australia NAB Business Confidence for February 2026: -1.0 (3.0 forecast; 3.0 previous)
• China Balance of Trade for February 28, 2026: 213.62B (165.0B forecast; 114.1B previous)
• Japan Machine Tool Orders for February 2026: 24.2% (22.5% forecast; 25.3% previous)
• Germany Balance of Trade for January 2026: 21.2B (15.4B forecast; 17.1B previous)
• U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index for February 2026: 98.8 (99.1 forecast; 99.3 previous)
• U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly for February 21, 2026: 15.5k (12.75k previous)
• U.S. Existing Home Sales for February 2026: 1.7% m/m to 4.09M units (-0.8% m/m forecast; -8.4% m/m previous)
• On Tuesday, US officials signaled military operations were escalating against Iran and there was little chance of diplomatic talks

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Broad Market Price Action:

Tuesday’s session was dominated by oil market volatility as the 11th day of the Iran conflict produced dramatic intraday price swings and conflicting signals about energy supply security.

WTI crude oil recorded the most extreme volatility among major assets, plunging and then rebounding to settle near $84 per barrel after briefly trading below $80 intraday. During Asian trading, prices chopped as markets looked ahead to G7 energy ministers’ discussions about coordinating strategic petroleum reserve releases potentially totaling 300-400 million barrels. The volatility accelerated during U.S. hours following confusion over Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s since-deleted social media post claiming Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, though the White House later clarified no such escorts had occurred. The conflicting messages about supply security contributed to the pronounced downward pressure, though underlying concerns about Hormuz disruptions kept the decline from extending further after President Trump warned Iran would face severe consequences if it attempted to mine the strait.

The S&P 500 struggled to find direction amid the energy volatility, ultimately closing around 6,790, down a marginal 0.2% on the session. The index reflected the tug-of-war between energy market stress and stronger-than-expected U.S. housing data. During Asian and early London hours, equities drifted modestly lower before stabilizing through the U.S. morning. The afternoon brought renewed selling pressure that coincided with the acceleration in oil’s decline, possibly reflecting concerns that persistent Middle East tensions could eventually weigh on consumer spending and economic growth despite the temporary relief from lower energy prices.

Gold advanced 1.1% to close near $5,194 per ounce, maintaining its safe-haven bid throughout the session. The precious metal traded with relatively low volatility during Asian and European hours before strengthening steadily through the U.S. afternoon. The advance appeared disconnected from any specific catalyst timing, suggesting persistent demand for portfolio hedges amid geopolitical uncertainty outweighed any pressure from the dollar’s modest strength.

Bitcoin surged 1.59% to trade around $70,175, posting one of the strongest performances among major assets. The cryptocurrency rallied steadily from Asian trading then chopped through the U.S. close with no apparent direct crypto-specific catalysts. The strength potentially reflected its growing role as an alternative asset during periods of traditional market stress, though the move’s timing showed little correlation with specific news flow, possibly indicating technical positioning factors.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose approximately 5 basis points to settle around 4.16%. Yields traded mostly sideways through Asian and London sessions before edging higher during U.S. trading hours. The modest climb likely reflected ongoing concerns about potential inflation pressures from elevated oil prices, even as crude’s dramatic intraday volatility  later in the session suggested those concerns might ease if energy markets stabilize.

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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

The U.S. dollar experienced choppy trading throughout Tuesday’s session, ultimately closing mixed but arguably net higher against major currencies as geopolitical developments and economic data releases created shifting risk sentiment across global markets.

During the Asian session, the dollar traded mostly sideways and choppy with relatively low volatility and a slightly net bullish lean. Japan’s sharply upgraded fourth-quarter GDP data, revised to 1.3% annualized growth from an initial 0.2% estimate, provided modest support to the yen but failed to generate sustained directional moves across currency pairs. China’s stronger-than-expected trade data, showing exports surging 21.8% and the trade surplus widening to $213.62 billion versus $165 billion forecast, suggested resilient Asian demand but generated limited immediate currency market reaction. Australian consumer confidence improved more than expected, rising to 91.6 versus 89.5 forecast, though business confidence turned negative at -1.0 versus 3.0 expected, creating mixed signals for the Australian dollar.

Just ahead of the London open, the dollar began to turn lower against major currencies, trading most of the morning London session net bearish. The shift appeared to correlate with renewed weakness in risk sentiment as European traders assessed the escalating Iran conflict, with Trump administration officials signaling military operations were intensifying and diplomatic resolution remained unlikely. Germany’s trade data showed exports declining 2.3% month-over-month versus -1.6% expected, with imports falling 5.9% against -0.3% forecast, underscoring ongoing European growth concerns but generating limited direct currency impact as geopolitical developments dominated market focus.

After the U.S. session opened, the dollar continued to trade net lower against major currencies but found a bottom just after the London close and slowly rebounded with increased volatility through the rest of the session. The intraday reversal’s timing coincided with multiple developments. U.S. existing home sales surprised sharply to the upside, rising 1.7% month-over-month to 4.09 million units versus expectations for a -0.8% decline, providing evidence of housing market resilience despite elevated mortgage rates. The stronger housing data likely contributed to the dollar’s stabilization by reinforcing the narrative of U.S. economic outperformance relative to other major economies. However, the dollar’s rebound appeared equally influenced by the dramatic decline in oil prices during U.S. afternoon trading, which may have reduced immediate concerns about inflation pressures and energy-driven economic disruption, paradoxically supporting the greenback as markets recalibrated risk assessments.

At Tuesday’s close, the dollar was mixed against major currencies but arguably net positive overall. Major currency performance against the dollar was relatively close, with the exception of the Australian dollar, which emerged as the best performing currency on the session despite Australia’s negative business confidence reading. The Aussie’s strength may have reflected the combination of improved consumer sentiment, resilient Chinese trade data supporting demand expectations for Australian commodities, and positioning adjustments as traders weighed competing geopolitical and economic narratives heading into Wednesday’s session.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for March 6, 2026 at 8:30 pm GMT
• Japan PPI Growth Rate for February 2026 at 11:50 pm GMT
• Germany CPI Growth Rate Final for February 2026 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for March 6, 2026 at 11:00 am GMT
  • U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for March 6, 2026 at 11:00 am GMT
• U.S. CPI Growth Rate for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for March 6, 2026 at 2:30 pm GMT
• Euro area ECB Schnabel Speech at 3:10 pm GMT
• U.S. Monthly Budget Statement for February 2026 at 6:00 pm GMT

Wednesday’s calendar features the highly anticipated U.S. CPI report for February at 12:30 pm GMT, which will provide critical insight into inflation trends before the Iran conflict’s energy price impacts fully registered in the data. The reading will be closely watched for evidence of whether disinflation momentum continued through the winter months, with any upside surprise likely to further complicate Federal Reserve policy deliberations given recent hawkish commentary from officials including Atlanta Fed President Bostic.

Oil inventory data will draw heightened attention given Tuesday’s extreme volatility, with API data due at 8:30 pm GMT followed by EIA’s official figures at 2:30 pm GMT on Wednesday. These reports could influence energy market sentiment depending on whether they show building inventories that might ease supply concerns or tightening stocks that reinforce worries about Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s speech at 12:30 pm GMT, coinciding with the CPI release, could provide additional color on how policymakers are balancing persistent inflation concerns against growing evidence of labor market softening. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s remarks at 3:10 pm GMT may offer perspective on how European officials are assessing the Iran conflict’s potential impact on eurozone inflation and growth trajectories.

Markets remain highly sensitive to any developments regarding Iran, particularly Trump’s repeated warnings about consequences if the Strait of Hormuz is mined and Tehran’s threats to halt regional oil exports if attacks continue.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends!

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