Tuesday delivered a split verdict on the week’s framework. The Base Case is partially activating — the RBA hiked 25bp to 4.35% as expected, ISM Services printed 53.6 (inside the 52–54 range), JOLTS came in marginally soft at 6.87M, and Pentagon reassurances from Hegseth, Caine, and Rubio confirmed the ceasefire holds. Equities ran to fresh all-time highs, WTI reversed below $100, and Bitcoin broke through resistance. But embedded inside that near-confirmation are two conflicting signals: ISM New Orders dropped 7.1 percentage points to 53.5 — the sharpest single-month deceleration in the current cycle — while ISM Prices held at 70.7%, tied for the highest since October 2022. A cooling demand picture and a heating price picture in the same print is the stagflation setup the framework has been tracking. NFP on Friday now carries even more interpretive weight than usual. The Risk-On scenario’s asset-level targets have been partially reached without its primary trigger. S&P 500 hit 7,271.8 — the exact ATH extension ceiling the framework identified. Bitcoin cleared 81,546 — above the 80,400 overshoot target. Both moves came from ceasefire reassurances alone, not a Hormuz deal. The structural catalyst that would extend these moves further remains unpriced.
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