Sunday’s framework identified Tuesday as “the single most event-dense session in the current conflict regime.” It was — and not in a good way for anyone hoping for clean resolution. April CPI printed 3.8% year-on-year, its highest reading since 2023, blowing past the 3.6% forecast. Core came in at 2.8% y/y and 0.4% m/m — both above consensus. Real wages declined year-over-year for the first time since 2023. And while markets were digesting that, WTI crude added another 4.01%, approaching $99 per barrel, as President Trump publicly declared the ceasefire on “life support” and CNN reported he is now more seriously weighing a return to major combat operations. The Fed Chair vote that was tentatively penciled in for Tuesday appears to have been deferred without generating significant market reaction of its own.
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