While some market participants are still digesting the results of the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP report for August, others are awaiting new benchmarks to fine-tune their trading strategies. The upcoming week of September 7–13, 2026, will provide the key data, including the release of US inflation figures for August on Thursday and Friday.
Additionally, market participants will evaluate macroeconomic data from the US, Japan, China, and Germany, as well as the outcomes of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Developments in the Middle East also remain one of the main drivers of the market.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: Japan’s GDP data.
- Tuesday: None scheduled.
- Wednesday: China’s CPI figures.
- Thursday: Germany’s CPI data, ECB interest rate decision, US PPI figures.
- Friday: US CPI data, University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index.
- Key event: Friday’s release of US CPI data.
Monday, September 7
The US and Canada will observe Labor Day, so stock exchanges and banks in both countries will be closed. This may reduce trading activity during the US session.
23:50 – JPY: Japan GDP for Q2 2026 (Final Estimate)
GDP is a measure of a country’s overall economic condition, which assesses the rate of growth or decline of a country’s economy. The Gross Domestic Product report, published by the Cabinet Office of Japan, represents the total value of all final goods and services produced by Japan over a certain period in monetary terms. A rising trend in GDP is seen as positive for the yen, while a low reading is seen as negative.
In Q1 2026, the country’s GDP stood at +0.5% (+1.8% YoY), after +0.2% (+0.7% YoY) in Q4 2025, -0.6% (-2.3% YoY) in Q3, +0.3% (+1.1% YoY) in Q2, and +0.5% (+2.0% YoY) in Q1 2025. The data suggests a bumpy recovery for the Japanese economy after it collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
The forecast implies that Japan’s GDP increased in Q2 2026, which is positive for the yen. Readings that exceed expectations will undoubtedly bolster the yen and Japanese stock indices. Conversely, underperformance will exert pressure on them.
The preliminary estimate stood at +0.3% (+1.1% YoY).
Tuesday, September 8
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled for release.
Wednesday, September 9
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter monetary policy. Higher consumer inflation may boost the yuan, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
China’s economy is the second largest in the world, after the US economy. China is also the largest buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods in the global commodity market. Therefore, the release of key macroeconomic data from China significantly impacts global financial markets, primarily the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, commodity-linked currencies, and Chinese and Asian stock indices.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In July 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at -0.1% (+0.5% YoY), after -0.3% (+1.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.2%) in April, -0.7% (+1.0% YoY) in March, +1.0% (+1.3% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in September, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025.
An increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as China is the largest trading and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand.
Thursday, September 10
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the August reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
12:15 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. ECB Monetary Policy Statement
The European Central Bank will publish its decision on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rates, which currently stand at 2.40% and 2.25%, respectively.
The ECB’s tight stance on inflation and the level of key interest rates favor the euro, while a softer stance and lower rates weaken it. Given the high inflation in the Eurozone, according to the ECB leadership, the risk balance for the eurozone’s economic outlook remains tilted to the downside.
At the same time, the ECB made it clear that if deflation resumes, rates will be lowered again. The ECB believes that GDP growth could slow significantly or even turn negative, partly due to the energy crisis in the EU, a high degree of uncertainty, weaker global economic activity, tighter financing conditions, and the tariff dispute with the US.
Given high oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the ECB may take a more hawkish stance, despite the high risk of a recession in the Eurozone. However, a pause cannot be ruled out.
A dovish tone in the statements will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.
12:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous figures: 0% (+4.7% YoY), -0.3% (+5.5% YoY), +0.6% (+6.0% YoY), +1.1% (+5.7% YoY), +0.7% (+4.3%), +0.5% (+3.4% YoY), +0.6% (+3.1% YoY) in January 2026, +0.4% (+3.2% YoY) in December 2025, +0.4% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.6% (+3.0% YoY), -0.2% (+2.7% YoY), +0.8% (+3.2% YoY), +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), +0.4% (+2.7% YoY), -0.3% (+2.4% YoY), -0.2% (+3.2% YoY), +0.1% (+3.4% YoY), +0.7% (+3.8% YoY) in January 2025.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below the forecast and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
12:45 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Press Conference
This press conference will draw significant attention from market participants. Volatility may increase not only in the euro but also across the entire financial market if the ECB leaders make unexpected statements. ECB executives will evaluate the current economic situation in the Eurozone and provide insights on the bank’s rate decision. Historically, after some ECB meetings and subsequent press conferences, the euro exchange rate experienced fluctuations of 3%–5% in a short time frame.
A dovish tone in the speech will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.
Friday, September 11
12:30 – USD: US Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed’s interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
- CPI: +3.4%, +3.5%, +4.2%, +3.8%, +3.3%, +2.4% in February and January 2026, +2.7% in December 2025, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;
- Core CPI: +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.6%, +2.5% in February and January 2026, +2.6% in December 2025, +2.6%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The figures indicate renewed inflationary pressure, which economists attribute primarily to rising energy prices amid the unrest in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz. Previous data had already suggested that inflation was easing more slowly than the Fed had expected. However, the current rate is well below the June 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1%.
US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high or take a pause to assess the economic and labor market situation if the reduction occurs.
If the data points to a decline in inflation or comes in weaker than expected, the dollar will most likely decline temporarily. If the numbers surpass expectations and previous readings, the greenback will strengthen, as this scenario would heighten the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer or resume its cycle of monetary policy tightening.
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 51.7, 55.2, 49.5, 44.8, 49.8, 53.3, 56.6, 56.4 in January 2026, 52.9 in December 2025, 51.0 in November, 53.6 in October, 55.1 in September, 58.2 in August, 61.7 in July, 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in February, 71.1 in January 2025. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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