The key event of the coming week (October 12–18, 2026) will be Wednesday’s release of US consumer and producer price data. At its late September meeting, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike in three years. Fed Chair Warsh also said that inflation remains too high. Market participants now expect at least one more rate hike this year. That is why they will be watching the CPI and PPI figures very closely for clues about the Fed’s next policy moves.
Market participants will also examine key macroeconomic data from Germany, China, Australia, and the US, as well as the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting.
Next week, the IMF meeting will also be in focus. Any decisions or headlines from the event could move financial markets.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: No major events scheduled
- Tuesday: RBA meeting
- Wednesday: China CPI, US CPI
- Thursday: Australia employment data, US PPI, US retail sales, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman speaks
- Friday: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. No major data releases scheduled
- Key event: US CPI release on Wednesday
Monday, October 12
Monday is Columbus Day in the US. The bond market will be closed, but stock markets will remain open. No major macroeconomic statistics are scheduled for release.
Tuesday, October 13
01:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
Following the September meeting, the interest rate was raised by 0.5% to 4.60%.
RBA Governor Michelle Bullock hinted at further monetary tightening, stating that the conflict in the Middle East has accelerated inflationary pressures and that the board will raise rates again if necessary. She also confirmed that the possibility of a pause was discussed at the meeting. In her view, although the situation has improved, inflation risks remain, and further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA’s monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the September reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
The preliminary estimate stood at +3.3%.
Wednesday, October 14
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter monetary policy. Higher consumer inflation may boost the yuan, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
China’s economy is the second largest in the world, after the US economy. China is also the largest buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods in the global commodity market. Therefore, the release of key macroeconomic data from China significantly impacts global financial markets, primarily the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, commodity-linked currencies, and Chinese and Asian stock indices.
In August 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at +0.4% (+0.8% YoY) after -0.1% (+0.5% YoY) in July, -0.3% (+1.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.2%) in April, -0.7% (+1.0% YoY) in March, +1.0% (+1.3% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in September, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025.
An increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as China is the largest trading and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand.
12:30 – USD: US Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed’s interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
- CPI: +3.4%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +4.2%, +3.8%, +3.3%, +2.4% in February and January 2026, +2.7% in December 2025, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;
- Core CPI: +2.4%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.6%, +2.5% in February and January 2026, +2.6% in December 2025, +2.6%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The figures indicate renewed inflationary pressure, which economists attribute primarily to rising energy prices amid the unrest in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz. Previous data had already suggested that inflation was easing more slowly than the Fed had expected. However, the current rate is well below the June 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1%.
US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high or take a pause to assess the economic and labor market situation if the reduction occurs.
If the data points to a decline in inflation or comes in weaker than expected, the dollar will most likely decline temporarily. If the numbers surpass expectations and previous readings, the greenback will strengthen, as this scenario would heighten the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer or resume its cycle of monetary policy tightening.
Thursday, October 15
00:30 – AUD: Employment Change. Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. An increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: +39,500 in August, -15,900 in July, +80,200 in June, +38,200 in May, -34,900 in April, +20,000 in March, +22,100 in February, +36,100 in January 2026, +57,300 in December 2025.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Unemployment in Australia remained at record lows inSeptember 2026and stood at 4.6% (against 4.6% in August, 4.5% in July, 4.4% in June and May, 4.5% in April, 4.3% in March and February, and 4.1% in January 2026 and December 2025, while the employment rate has risen.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
12:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI). US Retail Sales. Retail Sales Control Group
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous figures: +0.4% (+5.4% YoY), 0% (+4.7% YoY), -0.3% (+5.5% YoY), +0.6% (+6.0% YoY), +1.1% (+5.7% YoY), +0.7% (+4.3%), +0.5% (+3.4% YoY), +0.6% (+3.1% YoY) in January 2026, +0.4% (+3.2% YoY) in December 2025, +0.4% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.6% (+3.0% YoY), -0.2% (+2.7% YoY), +0.8% (+3.2% YoY), +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), +0.4% (+2.7% YoY), -0.3% (+2.4% YoY), -0.2% (+3.2% YoY), +0.1% (+3.4% YoY), +0.7% (+3.8% YoY) in January 2025.
If the data exceeds the forecast value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below the forecast and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
Retail sales. The Census Bureau report on retail sales reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is a key indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. High indicator readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken it. A relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the US dollar, while a rise in the indicator will positively impact the currency.
In August 2026, the value stood at +1.2%, after -0,5%, +0.2%, +1.0%, +0.4%, +1.6%, +0.7%, 0%, 0% in December 2025, +0.5% in November, -0.2% in October, +0.1% in September, +0.5% in August, +0.6% in July, +1.0%, -0.8%, -0.2%, +1.7%, 0%, -0.8% in January 2025.
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in the retail industry.
Retail sales serve as an indicator of domestic consumption, contributing the most to the US GDP and being one of the main factors influencing inflation. Deterioration of the indicator values is a negative factor for the US dollar. Inflation deceleration may prompt the Fed to begin the process of monetary policy easing.
The Retail Control Group indicator gauges volume in the retail industry and is used to calculate price indexes for most goods. High readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken the currency. A slight increase in the figures is unlikely to boost the dollar. If the data is lower than the previous readings, the dollar may be negatively impacted in the short term. Previous values: +1.4%, -0.4%, +0.4%, +0.8%, +0.5%, +0.8%, +0.6%, +0.5%, 0%, +0.2%, +0.5%, -0.2%, +0.7%, +0.5%, +0.9%, +0.3%, 0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, -0.9% in January 2025.
17:15 – NZD: Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Anna Breman Speech
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor’s speeches often provide insights into the future direction of the central bank’s monetary policy. If RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, appointed in December 2025, signals the bank’s intention to conduct a loose monetary policy, the pressure on the New Zealand dollar will likely increase. Conversely, the tough rhetoric of her statements will support the New Zealand currency.
Friday, October 16
02:00 – GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech
Market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the future policy of the UK central bank. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Andrew Bailey will likely explain the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not address monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be subdued.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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