Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
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FOREX NEWS & BLOG
Equities hold the optimism, counting down to US data later
The Japanese yen might have stolen the focus during the session but it’s time to forget about that for a while. The US PCE price data is coming up later and that will be an important release to watch. It is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation after all. And following the reaction to the US Q1 advance GDP data yesterday, it is clear that market players are still playing close attention to inflation data at the moment.
For now, equities are keeping the optimism after the late rebound in Wall Street yesterday. Tech shares are of course leading the charge, after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.0%. Dow futures are only up 0.2% currently. In Europe, major indices are also higher with the DAX up 0.7% and CAC 40 up 0.3% on the day.
Stocks have enjoyed a bit more of a steadier showing this week. However, it doesn’t take away from the rather poor performance overall in April. Sellers are not out of the picture yet and we’ll have to see if the data later offers them something to work with at the end of the week. The 100-day moving average (red line) for the S&P 500 is still not too far away for now:
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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EURUSD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.04.24 – 03.05.24
Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.0600 with a target of 1.1141 – 1.1350. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.0600 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.0437 – 1.0218. Analysis: a bearish wave of larger degree A is presumably completed on the daily chart. A bullish wave B started unfolding, with first wave 1 of (A) of B and corrective second wave 2 of (A) of B formed within. Apparently, the third wave 3 of (A) of B is developing on the H4 time frame, with… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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USDCAD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.04.24 – 03.05.24
Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.3553 with a target of 1.4000 – 1.4200. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3553 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3418 – 1.3170. Analysis: the ascending first wave of larger degree (1) continues developing on the daily time frame, with wave 5 of (1) forming as its part. The third wave of smaller degree iii of 5 is developing on the H4 chart, with wave (iii) of iii continuing forming within. Apparently, a local corrective wave iv of (iii) of… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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USDCHF: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.04.24 – 03.05.24
Main scenario: consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.9235 with a target of 0.8325 – 0.8050. Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9235 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9451 – 0.9838. Analysis: the downside fifth wave of larger degree (5) is presumably unfolding on the daily time frame. As its part, wave 1 of (5) is formed, a bullish correction is completed as second wave 2 of (5), and the third wave 3 of (5) is unfolding. The first wave of smaller degree i of 3 is formed… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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Dollar drifts lower ahead of PCE data; Eurozone inflation expectations lowered
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WTI edges lower to near $83.50 amid a weaker demand outlook following US GDP
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price trades near $83.40 per barrel, showing a slight decrease of 0.10% during the European hours on Friday.
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Markets Focus On Fed, BoE Rate Decisions, UK CPI Falls
The Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision tonight and tomorrow. UK CPI inflation dropped to 3.4%.
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EUR/USD continues slogging higher prior to March US core PCE
EUR/USD trades in the 1.0740s on Friday, ahead of key data out of the US in the form of the March core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation.
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AUD/USD hopes to keep technical break higher ahead of US PCE price data later
It’s a case of data mismatch for the aussie and the greenback this week. The former saw stickier inflation numbers here while the latter saw softer PMI numbers here. That was enough to close the gap on the divergent outlook between the RBA and Fed. In turn, it helped AUD/USD to keep a solid bounce on the week. So, what is the chart saying now?
The pair initially saw its upside limited by the 200-day moving average (blue line) earlier this week. But today, that key level has been broken and buyers are even pushing price above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this month – seen at 0.6536. Keep above both those levels and the upside momentum will have legs to run further.
The next key technical resistance will only come in at the 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6584 currently.
For trading though, just be wary that we still do have one big hurdle to go through. The US PCE price index is coming up later today. But the balance of risks might just favour a continuation of a softer dollar in this case. We’ll see.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation has been gradually rising
- Inflation is not necessarily weak if you look at other service prices
- If prices move in line with our forecasts, it would be reasonable to adjust policy and hike rates further
He’s mainly stating that the central bank is still in a position to hike rates further from here. As for the timing, he says that it is still uncertain i.e. depends on the data. In any case, we all know that they’re not going to budge on that stance. So, this isn’t exactly what is needed to help the yen. [Update @ 0736 GMT: Ueda’s press conference ends]
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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USDCAD Technical Analysis – Getting close to a key support zone
USD
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
unemployment rate lower. - The US Q1 GDP
surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong
economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate
cuts further away. - The US CPI beat expectations for the third
consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts. - The US NFP beat expectations across the board
although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts. - The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the
commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. - The market expects the first rate cut in
September.
CAD
- The BoC left interest rates unchanged at
5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern
about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains
intact. - The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although
the underlying inflation measures eased further. - On the labour market side, the latest report missed
expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is
something that the BoC is watching closely. - The Canadian Manufacturing PMI
improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the
measures remain in contractionary territory. - The market expects the first rate
cut in June.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is
getting closer and closer to the key support zone
around the 1.3620 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. That
will be the first opportunity for the buyers followed by the second one around
the major trendline if the
price were to break below the 1.3620 support. The sellers, on the other hand,
will keep pushing at every break lower, and in case they manage to break below
the trendline, the next target will be the 1.3225 low.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
yesterday got rejected from the minor downward trendline as the sellers stepped
in to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers will need to break
above the minor trendline and the 1.3730 resistance zone to turn the trend
around and start targeting new highs.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor resistance zone around the 1.3665 level where there’s also the red
21 moving average for
confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again with a
defined risk above the resistance to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
position for a rally into the trendline and targeting a break above it.
Upcoming Events
Today we conclude the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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