The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways on Monday, consolidating near the multi-year highs, at 1.1750 reached last week.
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EUR/USD treads water near highs ahead of the German CPI data
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FOREX NEWS & BLOG
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Jun. Month ends with USD at low for year. Yields lower
- Record closes for the major indices.
- ECB’s Lagarde The world is more uncertain and that should lead to inflation more volatile
- Crude oil settles at $65.11
- NEC Hassett: He expects trade frameworks will come after July 4
- Trump to send letter to Japan: Buy rice now
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) does not see any prospect of 1970s stagflation
- ECB’s Simkus: Does not know if the ECB will have all the information they need by Sept
- Trump to Jerome “Too Late” Powell…You should be ashamed. Rates should be paying 1%
- Goldman Sachs moves its next Fed rate cut from December to September
- European indices close mixed. German France and UK indices close lower
- More Bostic: Wage gains have returned to pre-pandemic levels
- NEC Director Hassett: Expects the one big beautiful bill to pass by midnight tonight
- Feds Bostic: Advance warning on tabs have allowed firms to manage process
- Treasury Secretary Bessent:Confident that fiscal policy bill will progress in coming hours
- ECB’s Rehn: Risk of inflation undershooting target should not be underestimated
- Nikkei: Japan PM Ishiba weighs US Pres suggestion that Japan buys US oil
- The USD is little changed to start the holiday week. US jobs on Thursday ahead of July 4
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar tepid, US futures up ahead of month-end
- Germany June preliminary CPI +2.0% vs +2.2% y/y expected
- What are the interest rates expectations for the major central banks?
The USD Index (DXY) closed out June with a steep decline, hitting a new low for the year at 96.77, a level not seen since March 1, 2022. The index fell -2.67% in June, marking a clear shift in sentiment toward the U.S. dollar. All major currencies gained against the greenback this month, with the euro (EUR) and Swiss franc (CHF) posting the largest advances.
The EURUSD rose 3.86%, the biggest monthly gain among the majors. This move came despite the ECB delivering another rate cut, bringing its policy rate to 2.00%. Markets seem to believe the ECB is now prepared to pause after ten consecutive cuts, while the Fed remains stuck at 4.50%, delaying its own easing cycle. Traders increasingly expect the Fed to move earlier than previously anticipated, adding pressure on the dollar.
The USDCHF also posted strong losses, driven by flight-to-safety flows into the Swiss franc amid rising geopolitical tensions. Concerns that the U.S. could be drawn into the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict added to the CHF’s appeal.
Additional weakness in the dollar was fueled by growing political pressure. Donald Trump, in a surprising twist, sent a handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell accusing him of costing the country “millions” by delaying rate cuts, asserting that interest rates should already be at 1%. Trump has also hinted at replacing Powell, potentially as soon as January, raising questions about future monetary policy direction.
The market is now watching closely to see if the Fed bends under the pressure or stays the course. Either way, June’s sell-off in the dollar reflects everything from concerns about US deficits, to the expectation for sharply lower rates ahead, political interference, and mounting global risks.
The snapshot of the changes for the month showed:
- EUR -3,86%
- JPY -0.04%
- GBP -2.1%
- CHF -3.51%
- CAD -0.93%
- AUD -2.32%
- NZD -2.33%
In the US debt market in June yields have moved lower. A look at the yield changes along the interest rate curve:
- 2 year yield -17.7 basis points at 3.72%.
- 5 year yield, -17.5 basis points at 3.799%.
- 10 year yield, -16.6 basis points at 4.232%
- 30 year yield -14.7 basis points at 4.77%
In the US stock market for June, the major indices closed at record levels (for the second day in a row) to end the trading month. Gains were led by the NASDAQ index :
- The Nasdaq index closed the month with a solid gain of 6.57% after rising by 9.56% in May.
- The S&P index rose line 4.96% after rising by 6.1% in May.
- The Dow Industrial Average rose by 4.32% after a gain of 3.94% in May
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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“1H” decline of 10.8% for the USD is NOT one hour! Its the fall in one half, ie six months
There are plenty of breathless headlines crossing about a 10.8% decline in the US dollar in “1H”.
Just for clarity that is NOT one hour as some folks seem to think. Sheesh, look at a chart!
Yes, the USD is awfully weak. Trump is debasing the dollar further with his threats against Fed independence, adding to the losses.
I posted yesterday, first thing,
And on Trump’s weekend dollar-debasement comments cutting the legs further from the dollar:
- “ … I don’t want to have to pay for 10 years debt at a higher rate.”
- “ … we’re to get somebody into the Fed who’s going to be able to lower the rate.”
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude oil to fall to $60 as supply builds
Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent crude will drop to around $60 per barrel by early 2026, citing easing geopolitical tensions — particularly between Israel and Iran — and a well-supplied market.
- The bank projects strong non-OPEC supply growth of about 1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, which it says will be enough to keep pace with global demand increases.
- Morgan Stanley also reiterated its view of a 1.3 million barrels per day oversupply in 2026.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range of 7.1590/7.1780 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1590/7.1780 against CNH (Chinese Yuan). In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; USD is likely to edge lower toward 7.1450, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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JPY outperforming on narrowing yield spreads – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is up 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming all of the G10 currencies as we enter Monday’s NA session.
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Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 27.06.2025
Dear readers, I’ve prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on the Elliott wave analysis. Major Takeaways BTCUSD: The correction is completed. Expect the price to rise in the fifth part of a bullish impulse to a high of 111,972.00. Consider long positions. XRPUSD: The bullish linking wave X is expected to complete near the previous high. Long positions can be considered with a target of 2.661. ETHUSD: The price is expected to grow in the fifth part of impulse (A). Consider long positions with Take Profit at 2,881.36. Elliott Wave Analysis for Bitcoin On the H4 chart of… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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ICYMI – Trump hints at more tariffs on Japan via interview and on his social media outlet
Trump spoke with Fox on Sunday saying:
- “Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story. You’re going to pay a 25 percent tariff on your cars,”
- “They won’t take our cars, right? And yet we take millions and millions of their cars into the United States. It’s not fair,”
While Trump appeared to forget the name of Japan’s PM he followed up on his social media app with further hints of more impositions on Japanese imports:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 27.06.25 – 04.07.25
Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 3240.00 with a target of 3600.00 – 3800.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 3240.00. Stop Loss: below 3190.00, Take Profit: 3600.00 – 3800.00. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 3240.00 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 3120.00 – 2950.00. A sell signal: the level of 3240.00 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 3280, Take Profit: 3120.00 – 2950.00. Main Scenario Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 3240.00 with a target of 3600.00… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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![DJI Index Elliott Wave analysis [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/mmfx.vvip-members.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/dji-index-elliott-wave-analysis-video.png?resize=400%2C250&ssl=1)
DJI Index Elliott Wave analysis [Video]
Function: Bullish Trend. Mode: Impulsive. Structure: Orange Wave 1.
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Robinhood Hits Record High on Tokenized Stock Rollout for EU Users
Robinhood stock soared 12% on Monday to an all-time
high as the trading app unveiled a major expansion into tokenized assets,
offering European users access to both public and private equity through
blockchain infrastructure.
The sharp rally followed the company’s announcement
that users in the European Union can now trade tokens tied to over 200 U.S.
stocks, as well as private firms like OpenAI and SpaceX.
The rally marked Robinhood’s largest single-day gain
in nearly a year, with shares boosted by investor enthusiasm over the company’s
aggressive push into digital assets and decentralized trading tools. The
tokens, issued in partnership with blockchain firm Arbitrum, allow 24-hour
trading five days a week, with zero commission or spreads.
Why the Stock Jumped
The stock’s 12% gain reflected investor optimism that
Robinhood’s latest move could unlock new global demand for U.S.
equities, especially from users priced out of traditional platforms.
Analysts say the addition of OpenAI and SpaceX, two of
the most high-profile private companies in the world, helped fuel excitement. The
European Union’s more permissive regulatory environment was key to the rollout.
You may also like: Tokenized Stocks Mania: Two Mega Crypto Exchanges Enter the Space Nearly 2 Hours Apart
EU investors, unlike their U.S. counterparts, aren’t
subject to accredited investor restrictions. That allowed Robinhood to offer
tokens tied to private firms directly to retail users—something still blocked
in the U.S.
We’re giving away the first Private Company Stock Tokens of Open AI and Space X.If you’re a Robinhood EU customer and you qualify, you are now able to claim your tokens in-app until July 7th.#RobinhoodPresents https://t.co/oX97lRQ8Vc pic.twitter.com/rkK1JKxHiC
— Robinhood EU (@RobinhoodApp_EU) June 30, 2025
While the stock token rollout is limited to the EU for
now, the company said it eventually plans to expand trading hours to 24/7 and
scale the number of tokenized stocks to thousands by year-end.
But in the U.S., progress remains slow. Regulatory
hurdles—particularly rules around accredited investors—mean American users
won’t be accessing tokenized private equity anytime soon.
Crypto Expansion and Yield Products
In parallel, Robinhood also relaunched crypto staking
for Ethereum and Solana in the U.S., a feature previously suspended due to
scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The move signals renewed
confidence in offering yield-bearing crypto products in Robinhood’s core
market, even as tokenized equities remain off-limits.
You’ve been asking for this.$ETH and $SOL staking are now available to U.S. customers.#RobinhoodPresents https://t.co/g2tVe85G4W pic.twitter.com/AaJaPCLbpv
— Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) June 30, 2025
The market reaction on Monday suggests investors see
the strategy as more than just a crypto side project. Robinhood’s use of
blockchain to tokenize public and private equities positions it at the
intersection of two rapidly converging sectors: traditional finance and
decentralized technology.
Other players, including Kraken, are also moving into
tokenized equities, but Robinhood’s brand recognition and retail user base give
it an early lead.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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Christmas in July: Can the S&P 500 hold Its breakout rally?
After a strong two-month rebound, the S&P 500 has entered July hovering near all-time highs.
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