FOREX NEWS & BLOG

Safe-Haven Yen Soars Against Trump Tariffs. Forecast as of 14.04.2025

Safe-Haven Yen Soars Against Trump Tariffs. Forecast as of 14.04.2025

April 17, 2025 3:16 pm |

While Washington is offering Tokyo a reprieve on tariffs, attributing the USDJPY pair’s downtrend to the strength of the Japanese economy and the BoJ’s overnight rate hike, the yen is strengthening on other factors. The Japanese currency is regarded as a highly reliable safe haven. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan. Major Takeaways Investors favor the yen as a safe-haven currency. Speculators are actively buying the Japanese currency. The futures market is not sure about the BoJ rate hike. Short trades on the USDJPY pair can be opened with targets of 140 and 135. Weekly Fundamental Forecast… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance

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EURUSD cannot develop any downside momentum after the ECB rate cut

EURUSD cannot develop any downside momentum after the ECB rate cut

April 17, 2025 3:07 pm |

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points and the Lagarde press conference is over. A summary by topic of the comments from Lagarde (and ECB) :

Growth & Economic Outlook

  • The Euro area economy is resilient, but the growth outlook is deteriorating.

  • Outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, with consumers likely to hold back on spending.

  • Trade disruptions and geopolitical risks are weighing on investment.

  • Growth in Q1 is likely positive; defense spending seen boosting manufacturing.

  • Risks to growth are tilted to the downside, especially from dampened exports and financing conditions.

Inflation & Monetary Policy

  • Most indicators point to underlying inflation trending toward 2%.

  • Wages are moderating, and domestic inflation is easing.

  • Long-term inflation expectations are anchored around 2%, aiding credibility.

  • Strong EUR may reduce inflation; higher import costs could lift it.

  • ECB removed “restrictiveness” from its language; in today’s volatile world, it’s no longer meaningful.

  • ECB will define the appropriate policy stance using data, readiness, and agility.

  • Policy will be meeting-by-meeting, using whatever tools are needed.

Policy Stance & Communication

  • Today’s 25 bps cut was unanimous, though some governors had leaned toward a pause weeks ago.

  • ECB will undertake intense scenario analysis in coming weeks.

  • ECB does not target FX rates, but considers FX in its decisions.

  • The neutral rate is only applicable in a “shock-free” world, which we’re clearly not in.

  • ECB remains flexible and pragmatic, guided by “safe, reliable” data.

Trade, Tariffs & FX

  • Tariffs are a negative demand shock; they will weigh on growth, and inflation effects may grow over time.

  • ECB is sticking to forecasts despite tariff risks.

  • No change in customer behavior due to U.S. tariffs observed yet.

  • On U.S. trade tensions, the EU’s most obvious response is a zero-for-zero tariff deal.

  • Expect re-routing of goods as tariffs disrupt traditional supply chains.

Stimulus & Additional Measures

  • Policymakers did not discuss stimulus at the meeting.

  • ECB will act if needed, but currently believes the adjusted policy path is appropriate.

Uncertainty & External Risks

  • Geopolitical risks, particularly around trade, are major sources of uncertainty.

  • Heightened uncertainty makes it harder to judge inflation and growth dynamics.

  • Lagarde admitted she cannot say if we are at the peak of uncertainty.

Technically, the EURUSD tried to move lower on the cut but after breaking below the 100 hour MA at 1.13495, the low could only reach 1.1337 before rebounding. The current price is at 1.1360. The trading range for the day is 74 pips. The average over the last month is 131 pips.

The sellers had their shot. They missed. It would take a move below the 100 hour MA and stay below. The strength in the EURUSD comes despite a Fed that is happy to wait and see, while the ECB is happy to cut given the risk to growth.

Of course, Pres Trump is now railing on the Fed chair and can’t wait to replace him with someone who is more dovish. Of course, the most important rate might be the 10 year yield and not the shorter term Fed rate. The bond market will do the easing or tightening. The Fed seems to be intent on following the risk to inflation. .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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EBC on Regulation as the Foundation of Market Integrity and Investor Trust

EBC on Regulation as the Foundation of Market Integrity and Investor Trust

April 17, 2025 2:56 pm |

At EBC Financial Group, we believe that robust financial regulation is not just a matter of compliance—it is the cornerstone of a trustworthy, resilient, and thriving marketplace. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United Kingdom, where the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) sets a global benchmark for regulatory excellence. In our view, the FCA’s approach demonstrates why strong oversight is vital for protecting market integrity and fostering investor confidence.

Safeguarding Market Integrity

Financial markets exist to efficiently allocate capital and risk, but this purpose is only fulfilled when participants have faith in the system’s fairness and transparency. The FCA’s mandate to “protect and enhance the integrity of the UK financial system” is not just a slogan; it is reflected in its day-to-day supervision, authorisation of firms, and oversight of trading practices. By ensuring that client assets are protected, market abuse is swiftly addressed, and firms operate transparently, the FCA helps maintain markets where both investors and institutions can participate with confidence.

Building Investor Trust Through Transparency

Investor trust is hard-won and easily lost. The FCA’s emphasis on transparency and disclosure—requiring firms to submit detailed annual accounts, undergo external audits, and maintain robust internal controls ensures that clients are fully informed and that firms operate with integrity. This transparency is essential for preventing conflicts of interest, market manipulation, and other practices that can erode confidence and cause direct harm to investors.

Setting High Standards for Market Access

One of the defining features of the FCA’s regulatory framework is its high entry barriers. Firms must demonstrate significant financial strength, operational resilience, and a long-term commitment to best practices before gaining authorisation. This rigorous process ensures that only well-capitalised, responsible firms are able to serve UK clients, raising the bar for the entire industry and reducing the risk of systemic failures.

Superior Investor Protection

The FCA’s investor protection schemes, such as the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), offer a safety net for clients in the event of firm failure. This not only protects individual investors from direct losses, but also reinforces confidence in the broader financial system. The FCA’s requirements for professional indemnity insurance and segregated client accounts further ensure that clients’ interests are prioritised at all times.

Driving Global Standards

The FCA’s influence extends well beyond the UK. Its “twin peaks” model of separating prudential and conduct regulation has been adopted by regulators worldwide, and its progressive stance on issues like benchmark integrity and market abuse has shaped international best practices. When benchmarks are robust and reliable, and when regulatory oversight is both proactive and transparent, markets are better able to fulfil their purpose and support economic growth.

Conclusion

We see robust regulation as a competitive advantage—not a burden. The FCA’s approach proves that strong oversight is essential for building resilient markets, protecting investors, and maintaining the trust that underpins the entire financial system. As financial markets continue to evolve, we encourage all industry participants to embrace the highest standards of integrity and transparency, ensuring that our markets remain safe, fair, and open to all.

This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.

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Exclusive: MT5 Overtakes MT4 in Trading Volume After 15 Years, Signaling the End of an Era

Exclusive: MT5 Overtakes MT4 in Trading Volume After 15 Years, Signaling the End of an Era

April 17, 2025 2:42 pm |

Finally, It Happened. Just as we predicted in our December article, MetaTrader 5 (MT5) has officially surpassed its older sibling, MetaTrader 4 (MT4), in terms of trading volume. According to our latest data from the upcoming Q1 Intelligence Report, this milestone has now been reached.

MT5 accounted for 54.2% of the total combined trading volume between MT4 and MT5, while MT4 held a 45.8% share. These figures even exceed our earlier projections, suggesting that MT5’s popularity is gaining even stronger momentum among users.

A Generational Shift Was Inevitable

Since its launch in 2005, MT4 has reigned as the go-to platform for CFD trading. Its widespread popularity stemmed from its user-friendly design, rich ecosystem of third-party tools, and dependable performance. Traders praised its advanced charting features, algorithmic trading capabilities through Expert Advisors (EAs), and the abundance of educational resources available. Likewise, brokers favored MT4 for its easy integration and broad client familiarity. Together, these advantages solidified MT4’s status as the industry leader for many years.

However, in recent years, MT5 has been gaining ground. Technological upgrades, evolving regulatory standards, and a growing demand for more diverse trading instruments have all fueled its rise. Brokers are increasingly pushing MT5 as they modernize their offerings, while MetaQuotes—the developer behind both platforms—has gradually scaled back support for MT4, encouraging a shift toward MT5. The growing adoption of MT5 signals that we may be witnessing a significant turning point in this long-standing rivalry.

Other Platforms Are on the Rise Too

While MetaQuotes’ platforms continue to dominate the retail FX/CFD landscape, it’s worth noting that other platforms have also gained ground. In Q1, alternative platforms captured a 27% market share, up from just over 24% in Q4. Our upcoming Q1 Intelligence Report, coming next week, will provide more insights, volume breakdowns, and in-depth analysis of the trading industry’s current state.

This article was written by Sylwester Majewski at www.financemagnates.com.

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XTB Trading Volume Triples Record Covid-19 Pandemic Levels Amid Trump’s Tariff Volatility

XTB Trading Volume Triples Record Covid-19 Pandemic Levels Amid Trump’s Tariff Volatility

April 17, 2025 2:34 pm |

We all
remember how wild the financial markets became when the world first learned
about the global COVID-19 pandemic. However, recent global trade war tensions
appear to have surpassed that chaotic period, with brokers experiencing
unprecedented user activity.

One of them
was the publicly listed, Warsaw-based XTB (WSE: XTB), whose trading volumes
surged to three times the levels seen during the pandemic.

XTB Reports Record Trading
Activity Amid Trump’s Tariff Tensions

The recent
escalation in trade tensions between the United States and global trading
partners has
triggered exceptional volatility in financial markets, driving record user
engagement on XTB’s trading platform.

“At
its peak on Monday, April 7th, the number of active users was three times
higher than what we observed during the COVID-19 pandemic announcement,” Filip
Kaczmarzyk, the Head of Trading and member of XTB’s Management Board told
FinanceMagnates.com “This resulted in nearly triple the number of open
positions compared to that period.”

The surge
in activity comes as markets respond to recent
tariff announcements that sent shockwaves through global exchanges. Despite
the platform handling significantly higher traffic volumes, executives
emphasized that system stability remained unaffected.

“In
those turbulent times, temporary unavailability of trading platforms was a
reality at some global players,” Kaczmarzyk noted, highlighting that XTB
maintained operational continuity throughout the market turbulence.

Transaction Size and XTB
Share Grows Amid Volatility

Perhaps
most notable was that despite the dramatic increase in user activity, the
average size of individual transactions actually increased by 34% compared to
levels seen during the early pandemic period, according to the company.

This
pattern suggests that both retail and more sophisticated traders are actively
positioning themselves in response to market conditions, rather than simply
reacting with smaller, defensive trades.

Although
XTB shares initially
fell to their yearly lows on April 7, they rebounded by 6% during the same
session, kicking off a rally that pushed the stock to new all-time highs. The
current peak stands at PLN 78.74, a level first tested on April 15 and
revisited again today, Thursday, April 17, 2025.

„First and
foremost, I want to underscore that XTB’s stock market valuation is not merely
a metric for us – it serves as a powerful indicator of our strategic execution
and the positive perception investors have of our company,” Omar Arnaout the
XTB’s CEO, told FinanceMagnates.com. “Over the past few years, the feedback has
been overwhelmingly positive, with both investors (institutional and
individual) and analysts consistently recognizing our significant potential.”

Industry-Wide Trading
Surge

XTB is not
alone in experiencing heightened activity. Other
financial services providers have reported similar surges as traders respond to
market volatility.

“Following
President Trump’s April 2 announcement of new tariffs, referred to as ‘Liberation Day’, GCEX has recorded some of its strongest trading days to
date,” said Lars Holst, Founder and CEO of GCEX.

GCEX, a
prime brokerage services provider, recently disclosed a nearly 250% increase in
FX spot trading volumes following the tariff announcements.

Similarly,
trading technology provider Gold-i reported a tenfold increase in FX and equity
index price rates, along with five times their normal trading activity.

“We saw a
tenfold increase in FX and Equity Index price rates and about five times as
much trading activity,” said Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i.

The market
volatility has been extreme, with the S&P 500 index initially losing
$6.6 trillion in value across two trading sessions before experiencing its
largest single-day gain since the 2008 financial crisis after a temporary pause
in the tariff implementation was announced.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

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Gold powered to all-time highs following Powell’s inflation warning

Gold powered to all-time highs following Powell’s inflation warning

April 17, 2025 2:32 pm |

Speaking at the Economic Club of
Chicago, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell was in the spotlight
yesterday and highlighted the potential economic consequences of President
Donald Trump’s tariffs on the US economy.

‘Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in
inflation’

Powell underlined that Trump’s policy
changes are ‘unlike anything in modern history and have put the central bank in
uncharted waters’, adding that ‘the policies are still evolving and their
effects on the economy remain highly uncertain’. He stated that the announced
tariff increases were higher than anticipated, and that ‘the same is likely to
be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower
growth’.

According to survey and market-based
measures, near-term inflation expectations have increased, but longer-term
inflation expectations remain ‘well anchored’. However, Powell said that
‘inflationary effects could be more persistent’.

Powell indicated that a part of the
tariff burden would be paid by the public, and unemployment is expected to rise
as the economy cools. US President Donald Trump is clearly not a very happy
chap this morning regarding Powell’s recent remarks, noting that the Fed
Chairman’s termination ‘cannot come fast enough’:

Fed on hold for now

Powell stressed that the Fed’s best course of action right now is to remain
on hold until data reveals a clearer path. He noted that the central bank is
‘well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments
to our policy stance’. Despite this, Powell refrained from providing any
indication as to the future rate path. Markets are pricing in nearly 90 basis
points (bps) of easing this year, so the expectation is for about three rate
cuts by the end of the year, with June or July’s meeting on the table for a
potential 25 bp cut.

Providing a more candid perspective on the new government, Powell remarked
that the effects of the administration’s tariffs may steer them away from their
objectives, indicating that the Fed could face a conflicted mandate – maximum
employment and stable prices. He stated that if this conflict comes to
fruition, ‘we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the
potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be
anticipated to close’.

Gold: Buy the dip?

Powell’s comments immediately guided US equities southbound and underpinned
a bid in the price of Spot Gold to yet another fresh all-time high, with price
action currently trading off highs of US$3,574 ahead of the US cash open.

With Goldman Sachs and UBS raising their year-end Gold price forecasts, and
the trend evidently to the upside, this would be a challenging market to short
at this point.

Despite the yellow metal registering long-term overbought conditions – the
monthly chart’s Relative Strength Index is testing levels not seen since 2008 –
picking tops in a trend demonstrating strong momentum at all-time highs is
difficult.

Consequently, investors will likely seek dip-buying opportunities. I am
seeing very little support to work with on the monthly scale right now, though
the daily chart highlights an interesting decision point zone at
US$3,193-US$3,245, located just north of notable support from US$3,148. The
daily demand zone at US$3,000-US$3,058 is also a worthwhile base to pencil in
the watchlist. Ultimately, if a correction should materialise from current
levels, I will watch how price behaves at US$3,193-US$3,245, given I believe
that this area warrants some caution due the possibility of a whipsaw through
the noted area (tripping stops) into US$3,148.

Written by FP Markets Chief Market
Analyst Aaron Hill

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice
only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial
situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the
accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not
give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in
this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by
law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage
arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with
any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP
Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the
Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website,
www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those
products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP
Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets
Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services
License Number 286354.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in April monetary policy decision, as expected

ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in April monetary policy decision, as expected

April 17, 2025 2:23 pm |

  • Prior decision
  • Deposit facility rate 2.25% vs 2.25% expected
  • Prior 2.50%
  • Main refinancing rate 2.40% vs 2.40% expected
  • Prior 2.65%
  • Marginal lending facility 2.65%
  • Prior 2.90%
  • *Reference to restrictive policy is omitted*
  • The disinflation process is well on track
  • Determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target
  • Not pre-committing to a particular rate path
  • Will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance
  • Decisions will be based on assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission
  • Full statement

That’s a quick shift in removing the reference to restrictive policy after the change in March last month. As a reminder, the ECB tweaked their language to indicate that “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive” in the last meeting. And now, they’ve removed that completely.

But as mentioned here, it doesn’t mean that they are going to confirm that rates have reached neutral territory nor does it mean rate cuts will stop moving forward. The overall outlook remains the same but this is sort of a hedge against the risks put forward by US tariffs and the potential impact on the euro area economy and inflation.

Lagarde will have some answering to do on the removal of the phrase later but overall, she should glide through it and keep emphasising on the increased uncertainty from the tariffs war.

In terms of economic projections, core inflation is seen averaging 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027. As for growth, that is downgraded with the economy seen expanding by just 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 now.

The euro is lightly changed on the decision, with EUR/USD still down 0.5% at 1.1340 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2025, 2026, 2027–2030 and Beyond: WTI and Brent Outlook

Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2025, 2026, 2027–2030 and Beyond: WTI and Brent Outlook

April 17, 2025 2:20 pm |

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the USCRUDE trading instrument, addressing crucial components such as the current state of the oil market, influential factors affecting oil price shifts, and future forecasts. The outlook for oil prices employs a multifaceted approach, encompassing fundamental and technical analysis to provide a nuanced and informed market assessment. In addition, the article offers a detailed long-term trading strategy, empowering investors to accurately identify optimal entry and exit points, thereby minimizing risk while maximizing returns. Furthermore, the article draws upon the insights of industry experts and examines prevailing sentiments on social media concerning crude oil… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance

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Taurex Sponsors Guinness World Record-Breaking Trading Competition

Taurex Sponsors Guinness World Record-Breaking Trading Competition

April 17, 2025 1:52 pm |

Taurex is proud to announce its role as an official premium sponsor of the trading competition that set a new Guinness World Record for the Most Participants in a Trading Competition, achieved at the PRO FX Expo MENA 2025 in Dubai.

Held on 9–10 April at Media City, the event attracted over 3,000 participants and marked a historic milestone for the global trading community. As one of the premium sponsors, Taurex supported the event’s organisation and visibility, underscoring its ongoing commitment to enhancing accessibility and innovation in retail trading.

Bringing Traders Together on a Global Stage

Throughout the expo, Taurex engaged with hundreds of attendees across the two-day event, sharing insights, platform features, and partnership opportunities. The record-breaking competition served as a standout moment, reflecting the increasing scale and enthusiasm of traders worldwide.

“Being part of this historic achievement aligns with our vision to support bold, high-impact initiatives that unite traders and push industry boundaries,” said Nick Cooke, CEO of Taurex.

Industry Recognition: Two Key Awards

In addition to its involvement in the competition, Taurex was honoured with two prestigious awards during the expo season:

· Best Emerging Trading Application

· Best Global Partnership Program

These accolades further reinforce Taurex’s technology-driven approach and its commitment to innovation and strategic partner success.

As Taurex continues to expand its global presence, its focus remains on delivering personalised support, cutting-edge trading technology, and sustainable growth opportunities for clients and partners alike.

About Taurex

Taurex is a globally recognised, multi-regulated broker offering over 1,500 financial instruments across forex, commodities, shares, indices, metals, and more. The company supports traders and partners with innovative trading tools, region-specific promotions, and comprehensive partner support.

For more information, please visit www.tradetaurex.com or contact support@tradetaurex.com.

This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.

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Trump: Every Nation, including China, wants to meet!

Trump: Every Nation, including China, wants to meet!

April 17, 2025 1:05 pm |

Trump: “Had a very productive call with the President of Mexico yesterday. Likewise, I met with the highest level Japanese Trade Representatives. It was a very productive meeting. Every Nation, including China, wants to meet! Today, Italy!”

The little part citing China is what triggered a spike in risk assets. There are probably algos set to trade every positive China headline even if taken out of context.

We all know that both want to negotiate but nobody wants to make the first step.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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