FOREX NEWS & BLOG

UK-US trade deal has officially come into force, says UK government

UK-US trade deal has officially come into force, says UK government

As a reminder, this is sort of half of a trade deal but still relevant as the details of which are now going into effect as of today. The agreement will see tariffs against UK’s automotive and aerospace sectors being reduced. From the announcement:

  • UK car manufacturers can now export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff quota
  • UK aerospace sector will have 10% tariffs on goods like engines and aircraft parts removed

For some context, the previous tariff on autos were in total 27.5%. So, that’s a positive step forward at least. And for the UK, they’d at least be able to fly under the radar for a while longer as Trump has other trade deals to settle.

The full release here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US

Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US

Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax. Via a Canada finance ministry statement on Sunday.

CAD jumps a little higher.

On Friday we had this:

Adam suggested that:

  • I imagine this is all theatre as Trump lays the groundwork for a deal.
  • Canada is obviously prepared to drop this tax if the US drops tariffs.

Spot on.

So, Canada rescinds digital services tax:

  • Trump and Carney agreed to resume negotiations.
  • Target is a trade deal by July 21.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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CAD popped higher after the news that US-Canada trade talks are back on

CAD popped higher after the news that US-Canada trade talks are back on

The news is here:

USD/CAD has dropped on the news:

The background to this was in Friday:

Adam responded to the chaos by saying:

  • this is all theatre as Trump lays the groundwork for a deal
  • Canada is obviously prepared to drop this tax

And that is more or less what has played out.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Japan faces surge in food price hikes as inflation pressures intensify

Japan faces surge in food price hikes as inflation pressures intensify

Japanese households are set to face sharper cost-of-living pressures in July, with a private survey showing food price hikes on more than 2,100 items — a five-fold increase from a year earlier. The average price increase is expected to be around 15%, according to Teikoku Databank, which surveyed 195 major food manufacturers. More from the survey:

  • broad-based increases
  • being driven by higher raw material and utility costs, rising labour and transportation expenses
  • momentum for price hikes in 2025 is stronger than last year’s

Teikoku warned that further spikes in crude oil — particularly if Middle East tensions escalate — could trigger a fresh wave of inflation similar to 2022, when nearly 26,000 items saw price hikes.

The data add to pressure on the Bank of Japan, which has so far resisted further rate increases and looks set to hold until next year:

Coming up this week is the BOJ’s quarterly tankan survey, due Tuesday. Expected to show:

  • weakening sentiment among large manufacturers
  • capital spending plans remaining robust despite risks from US trade policy

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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European Central Bank President Lagarde and de Guindos speaking on Monday

European Central Bank President Lagarde and de Guindos speaking on Monday

0430 US Eastern time / 0830 GMT:

  • ECB board member Luis de Guindos at conference
    organised by Instituto Atlántico de Gobierno (IADG) (Atlantic Institute of Governance):
  • part of its CEO conference “Europe: Analysis and Perspectives.”

1500 US Eastern time/1900 GMT:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Japan May 2025 preliminary industrial production +0.5% m/m (expected +3.4%)

Japan May 2025 preliminary industrial production +0.5% m/m (expected +3.4%)

Japan Industrial Production for May 2025, preliminary, +0.5% m/m for a huge miss

  • expected +3.4%, prior -1.1%

and -1.8% y/y

  • prior +0.5%

Industrial Production forecast 1 month ahead +0.3% m/m

  • prior -3.4%
  • 2 months ahead seen at -0.7%

Data via Ministry of Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry

US tariffs threat but hasn’t even hit yet:

  • automobile industry-specific tariffs of 25%
  • also faces 24% “reciprocal” tariff rate starting on July 9

Japan’s government is trying to get exemptions, but Trump does not sound in the mood to compromise.

more to come

Earlier re Japan:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Revolut Enters Argentina With Purchase of Local Lender From BNP: Report

Revolut Enters Argentina With Purchase of Local Lender From BNP: Report

UK-based fintech Revolut has agreed to acquire Banco
Cetelem in Argentina from BNP Paribas, marking its first direct entry into the
South American banking market, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with
the matter. The deal reportedly includes Cetelem’s local banking
license and roughly $6.4 million in assets.

Establishing Presence in Argentina

The acquisition allows Revolut to establish a formal
presence in Argentina’s financial system as the company pushes ahead with
international expansion plans. The London-headquartered fintech has already
initiated the regulatory approval process with Argentina’s central bank.

Banco Cetelem is one of the smallest lenders in
Argentina, ranking near the bottom of the central bank’s list of financial
institutions by assets. However, the license is seen as a strategic asset for
Revolut, which is increasingly relying on acquisitions to enter new markets.

The company participated in a competitive bidding
process for the bank, which also attracted interest from Southern Cross Group
and brokerage firm Criteria.

Revolut has started staffing for its Argentine
operations and recently appointed Augustin Danza as CEO for the local unit. The
company, which serves 60 million users globally and is valued at around $45
billion, already holds a restricted banking license in the UK and a full
license in Mexico. It is pursuing at least 10 more banking permits worldwide.

Read more: Revolut Names Béatrice Cossa-Dumurgier Western Europe CEO in Banking License Drive

The entry into Argentina comes as President Javier
Milei’s administration rolls out economic reforms that are reshaping the
financial sector. The country is experiencing a revival in credit markets, with
banks issuing mortgages for the first time in years.

Private Sector Lending

According to Bloomberg, data from industry group Adeba
show that private sector lending rose 53% in real terms in 2023, the strongest
growth in more than three decades.

Revolut enters a crowded and competitive landscape,
where regional fintech firms like MercadoLibre and Uala already dominate
consumer digital payments and retail banking services. Still, the company appears intent on leveraging its
new local status to compete in the evolving market.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Trump whining about unfair auto trade, wants Japan to buy more oil

Trump whining about unfair auto trade, wants Japan to buy more oil

Trump has accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices in the automobile sector, calling for Tokyo to boost imports of U.S. energy and goods to help narrow the trade deficit.

In a Fox News interview aired Sunday, Trump criticised the imbalance, noting that while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, Japan takes few American-made cars in return:

  • “They won’t take our cars, and we take millions of theirs. It’s not fair”
  • Japan could import more U.S. oil and other products

Japan is currently trying to secure an exemption from a 25% U.S. auto tariff and avoid a 24% reciprocal tariff due to take effect July 9.

The auto industry makes up roughly 28% of Japan’s ¥21 trillion ($145 billion) in annual exports to the U.S.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Saylor hints at another bitcoin buy, extending 11-week streak

Saylor hints at another bitcoin buy, extending 11-week streak

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has hinted at the firm’s 11th straight week of Bitcoin purchases, continuing a buying streak that began on April 14.

  • “In 21 years, you’ll wish you’d bought more,” Saylor posted on X to his 4.4 million followers

Strategy’s latest purchase was on June 23, when it added 245 BTC for $26 million, boosting its total holdings to 592,345 BTC.

This cements Strategy’s status as the largest known corporate holder of Bitcoin, with more than double the combined holdings of the next 20 largest public Bitcoin treasury firms, according to BitcoinTreasuries.

Info via Coinbase.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1681 – Reuters estimat

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1681 – Reuters estimat

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

  • Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
  • The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
  • Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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