NASDAQ 100 Futures Analysis (NQ) – Using Order Flow Data and AI Prediction
Order Flow Prediction Score: +3 (Moderate Bullish Bias)
Current Market Status for Nasdaq Futures:
Price of NQ at the time of this analysis: 19428
The latest order flow analysis suggests early signs of buyer strength, but the shift in momentum is not yet decisive. Selling pressure appears to be slowing at key support levels, yet the market has not fully confirmed a bullish reversal.
Understanding Order Flow Analysis & The Prediction Score
Order flow analysis goes beyond price action by tracking real-time trade execution, helping to determine whether buyers or sellers are gaining control. This involves assessing:
- Trade Volume & Distribution – Are large players accumulating or distributing?
- Delta Strength & Shifts – Are buyers absorbing sell pressure, or are sellers still dominant?
- Liquidity Absorption – Are key levels holding firm, signaling a possible trend shift?
- Key Price Levels (VWAP, POC, VAH, VAL) – Are these areas showing rejection, absorption, or breakouts?
By integrating these factors, order flow analysis helps anticipate market moves rather than just reacting to price changes.
Key Findings from Recent Order Flow Data
1️⃣ Yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL) at 19,358 remains a critical level.
Price is currently holding above this level, showing that sellers have failed to push below it. The latest bar closed at approximately 19,390, signaling demand stepping in.
2️⃣ Delta at supports from the latest price action suggests bullish pressure.
This is significant given that it occurred during a lower volume period (before the US market opens). Buying strength during thin liquidity suggests positioning ahead of regular market hours.
3️⃣ Historic support at 19,154 – 19,139 has held.
While not a definitive bottom, price has reacted to these levels, suggesting some selling absorption.
4️⃣ Today’s VWAP at 19,328 aligns closely with yesterday’s VAL at 19,358.
This creates a zone of interest where buyers and sellers are actively battling for control.
5️⃣ POC of yesterday and today remains at 19,439, an important resistance level.
If price moves above and holds this level, it would signal stronger buyer conviction.
Order Flow Prediction Score: +3 (Moderate Bullish Bias)
How the scoring system works:
- -10 to -6 → Strong Bearish (Sellers fully in control, high probability of further downside)
- -5 to -3 → Moderate Bearish (Sellers still favored, but some early buying attempts may emerge)
- -2 to +2 → Neutral (Market indecisive, no strong bias yet)
- +3 to +5 → Moderate Bullish (Buyers gaining control, but confirmation needed)
- +6 to +10 → Strong Bullish (Buyers fully in control, high probability of further upside)
Why is the AI prediction score for the Nasdaq not higher?
- Buying pressure is emerging, but the strength is not overwhelming yet.
- There is still a chance that sellers could regain control if price fails to hold above 19,358 or gets rejected at 19,439.
- The order flow shift is happening during lower volume hours, making it less reliable without follow-through in regular market conditions.
Why is the AI prediction score for the Nasdaq not lower?
- Signs of seller exhaustion are appearing, as price failed to break below 19,358.
- Delta SL turned positive, signaling buyers absorbing sell pressure.
- The POC of today remains the same as yesterday’s, hinting at potential accumulation rather than aggressive distribution.
Nasdaq Futures Trade Plan & Key Levels to Watch
✅ Bullish Scenario:
- A move above 19,439 (POC) could confirm further upside potential.
- Holding above 19,358 (yesterday’s VAL) would provide additional confidence for buyers.
❌ Bearish Risk:
- If price fails to hold 19,328 (VWAP) and drops back below 19,358, selling pressure could resume.
- A breakdown below 19,154 – 19,139 would shift focus back to lower levels.
In Short, Nasdaq May Be Forming a Bottom Here (Even for a Swing Long)
The order flow data shows early signs of a potential momentum shift, but further confirmation is needed. Buyers are stepping in, yet the market has not fully established strong bullish control. If price stabilizes above key levels and reclaims 19,439, it would reinforce the bullish case. However, failure to do so could lead to renewed selling pressure.
This is not financial advice and you should do your own research, using the above as an opinion and a potential decision support tool, at your sole discretion and your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
