FOREX NEWS & BLOG

With few reports to price in, the markets focused on escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. Luckily, improved risk sentiment later helped risk assets end the day in the green.

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Reuters with this interesting piece:

• Britain’s official labour market statistics may be failing to count almost 1 million people who are in work
• might also be overestimating the number of workers who have dropped out of the jobs market
• think tank data closely tracked official employment numbers until 2020. Since then it has diverged sharply.

Poor data has implications for Bank of England decisions, and for other policy makers.

Here is the link for more.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Canada’s October inflation figures printed broadly higher, supporting smaller interest rate reductions from the BOC next month. How did the Loonie react?

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• US broader indices close higher. Dow industrial average moves lower.
• Nvidia to announce earnings after the close tomorrow
• Crude oil futures settled at $69.39
• Bitcoin trades to a new all-time high
• More from KC Fed Pres. Schmid: Rates are still somewhat restrictive
• KC Fed Pres. Schmid: Remains to be seen how far interest rates may fall
• European shares close lower but off lows as geopolitical concerns ease
• IAEA says Iran has agreed to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium
• Trump is expected to reward Lutnick with Commerce chief position (or is it a reward).
• Walmart shares at record. Comments from major US retailer gives heartbeat of the consumer
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q4 up to 2.6% versus 2.5% previous
• What are the technicals driving the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD in trading today?
• US indicated it will not respond to Russia’s nuclear doctrine move
• ECB’s Panetta: It is not blasphemy that rates could go below neutral levels
• US housing starts for October 1 311M vs 1.330M estimate
• Canada CPI inflation for October 0.4% versus 0.3% MoM
• What technical levels are in play for the major FX pairs vs USD to start the day (Nov 19)?
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles triggers some risk-off
• ECB’s Muller: I don’t see a reason to move in bigger steps now

Markets:

• Gold up $21 or 0.81% at $2632.71
• US 10-year yield 4.398%, -1.6 basis points
• US 2-year yield 4.284%, +0.1 basis points
• WTI crude oil up $0.08 at $69.26
• S&P 500 rose 0.40%
• NASDAQ index rose 1.04%
• Russell 2000 rose 0.80%

The US dollar was mixed in trading today with the DXY index falling -0.09%. The USD had changes of 0.09% or less vs 4 of 7 major currencies. Versus the USD:

• EUR, +0.02%
• JPY +0.01%
• GBP, -0.04%
• CHF -0.07%

The USD fell vs the commoditiy currencies

• CAD -0.42%
• AUD -0.37%
• NZD -0.32%

The only economic news was US housing starts and building permits:

• Housing starts 1.311M vs 1.330M estimate. The annualized pace was lower than the revised 1.353M last month
• Building permits 1.416M vs 1.430M estimate. The annualized pace was also lower than the revised 1.428M last month.

Versus a year ago, housing starts are down -4.0% while building permits are down by -7.7%. There is not enough supply in the housing market and these numbers show that disparity.

Canada CPI came in stronger than expectations with a gain of 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The core rose 0.3% versus 0.1%.

The USDCAD moved lower today and in the process moved back below 200 hour moving average at 1.39789. At the same level was the high price from 2022. Breaking below both those levels tilts the short-term bias more to the downside. The swing high price from August 2024 (which was the highest level before breaking higher in November) comes in at 1.38458, a move below that level in the new trading day would be more bearish.

A technical look at some of the other major currency pairs versus US dollar as the day ends and the new day begins, shows:

• USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower today in the Asian session, finding support near the broken 61.8% retracement of the range since the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. The low price came in at 153.27 before snapping back higher. The price is currently trading at 154.66 which takes a pair back into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.40. Moving above the high of that swing area would be more bullish in the new trading day. Staying below and rotation back to the downside might signal a neutral market with buyers and sellers battling it out between short-term technical levels.
• EURUSD:The EURUSD high price yesterday stalled within swing area resistance between 1.0592 and 1.06097. Price moved down sharply into the European session, but found support buyers in a another swing area between 1.05158 and 1.05316. The subsequent move to the upside has taken the price back up toward the 1.06 level at 1.0595 currently. Get above 1.06097 would increase the bullish bias in the new trading day and have traders looking toward 1.0650 followed by 1.0665 – 1.0670 (lows from three weeks in June and July) . Conversely, remain below 1.0610, and traders are battling between 1.0515 and 1.0610.
• GBPUSD: The GBPUSD found support buyers near the high of a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26137. The subsequent move to the upside found resistance sellers near the high of another swing area up to 1.26858. Like the USDJPY and the EURUSD, the ups and downs are staying within support resistance targets. Traders will look for a break and momentum in the direction of the break in the new trading day.

Have a good morning, day, evening.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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