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Bank of Japan minutes from its March policy meeting – full text

• Members agreed BOJ would continue to raise rates if its economy, price outlooks were to be realised
• One member said it’s appropriate to pay close attention to the new U.S. policies and their impact on the global economy
• One member said BoJ would need to be particularly cautious when considering the timing of next rate hike as downside risks stemming from U.S. policies had rapidly heightened
• One member said, even with heightened uncertainties, it did not warrant BoJ to be always cautious and BOJ may face a situation where it should act decisively
• One member said necessary to make nimble adjustments to the degree of monetary accommodation if it needed to avoid overheating of financial activities
• One member said that during the phase of the next policy interest rate hike, underlying CPI inflation might be fairly close to 2%
• One member said not necessary at this point to make any major changes to bond tapering plan when BOJ reviews its current plan in June
• That member also said BoJ would however need to examine from a longer-term perspective the reduction plan for April 2026 onward
• One member said that given that U.S. Federal Reservesaid it was in no hurry to adjust policy stance, BoJ policy could be more flexible

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I posted this earlier, the minutes not contradicting:

Prior to the meeting minutes the Bank publishes its ‘Summary of Opinions’. For this meeting these can be found here:

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions of the March 18 and 19 meeting

At the meeting in March the Bank remained on hold.

The key points from the Summary were:

• BOJ will continue to hike rates if economy, prices move in line with forecast
• The downside risks from the U.S. are heightening sharply and could have negative impacts on Japan’s economy, so we must be even more cautious on deciding next rate-hike timing
• Downside risks to Japan’s economy are, in turn, heightening due to U.S. tariff policy, supply chain disruptions, so must keep policy steady for time being

Those final two are why the Bank is on hold and looks like could be for another few meetings. The meeting that followed on May 1 also saw the Bank leave policy on hold.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Banco Central do Brasil summary headlines via Reuters:

• The decision was unanimous.

• Additional caution is needed for the next meeting.

• The scenario also demands flexibility to incorporate data that impact the inflation outlook.

• The Bank will remain vigilant, and the calibration of monetary policy tightening will continue to be guided by the objective of bringing inflation back to target within the relevant time horizon.

• Calibration will depend on inflation dynamics, especially components more sensitive to monetary policy and economic activity, as well as on inflation projections and expectations, the output gap, and the balance of risks.

• The external environment, particularly U.S. trade policy, and the domestic environment, especially fiscal policy, have been influencing asset prices and expectations.

• Risks to the inflation outlook, both upside and downside, are higher than usual.

• The global environment is adverse and particularly uncertain, mainly due to U.S. economic policy and outlook, especially its trade policy and effects.

• Trade policy has added to global uncertainties, particularly regarding the extent of the economic slowdown and the heterogeneous effects on inflation across countries.

• A set of indicators on local economic activity and the labour market is still showing strength, although there are early signs of moderation in growth.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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