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Goldman Sachs: Strong Asia session gold buying for 8 straight days; 4,500/oz a tail risk

Goldman Sachs: Strong Asia session gold buying for 8 straight days; 4,500/oz a tail risk

April 16, 2025 10:32 pm |

Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts.

Key Points:

  • Asian Buying Momentum:Spot gold broke Monday’s highs, marking eight consecutive overnight rallies driven by strong Asia session demand.

  • Elevated Volumes:Trading volumes are currently running ~40% above the 10-session average at this time of day.

  • Positioning Still Roomy:CFTC, ETF, and open interest data indicate speculative positioning is not yet extended, suggesting room for further upside.

  • Goldman’s Upgraded Outlook:GS recently raised their 2025 year-end forecast to $3,700/oz, citing:

    • Increased ETF inflows

    • Continued central bank buying

    • Elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty

  • Tail Scenario:If the Fed is forced to subordinate policy due to debt concerns or US reserve currency shifts, GS sees gold potentially spiking to $4,500/oz.

Conclusion:

Goldman views the current rally as sustainable, with strong physical demand and investor inflows from Asia underpinning the move. Positioning remains far from euphoric, supporting their constructive outlook, while macro risks could trigger a super-spike scenario in the months ahead.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Webull Shares Fall Over 70% After Nasdaq Debut Despite Initial Surge

Webull Shares Fall Over 70% After Nasdaq Debut Despite Initial Surge

April 16, 2025 10:20 pm |

Webull entered the public markets this week, sending
its stock price soaring nearly 372% just a day after its Nasdaq debut. The stock-trading app’s explosive rise follows its
merger with SK Growth Opportunities Corp., a special-purpose acquisition
company, pushing Webull’s valuation to almost $30 billion in record time.

Stock Price Drops Over 76%

However, the price has since declined from its peak.
According to TradingView data, BULL is changing hands for $35, a decline of 76%
from its peak. With its shares now listed under the ticker “BULL,”
Webull’s market entry signals both investor appetite for digital brokerage
platforms and renewed interest in select SPAC deals, even as the broader SPAC
trend has cooled.

Webull first gained traction in the U.S. in 2020 when
retail investors, many flush with stimulus checks, turned to the app for
commission-free trading. It now operates in 15 regions globally, claiming over
23 million registered users and more than 50 million app downloads.

The company offers trading in stocks, ETFs, options,
and cryptocurrencies, along with charting tools, watchlists, and a premium tier
that costs $40 annually. Founded by former Alibaba and Xiaomi executive Wang
Anquan, Webull now sits alongside Robinhood, Charles Schwab, and E-Trade in the
increasingly crowded retail trading space.

Questions Around Global Operations

Webull’s path to Nasdaq came through its combination
with SK Growth Opportunities Corp., whose shareholders approved the deal on
March 30. As part of the transaction, SK Growth became a wholly owned
subsidiary, and its securities were converted into Webull shares and warrants.
Trading under the symbols “BULL,” “BULLW,” and “BULLZ,” Webull marked its
market debut by ringing the opening bell at Nasdaq on April 11.

Despite the market enthusiasm, Webull faces scrutiny
over its international ties. In November, the U.S. House Select Committee on
the Chinese Communist Party contacted Denier regarding the company’s
potential links to China, CNBC reported.

Still, with a multibillion-dollar valuation and fresh
visibility, Webull appears well-positioned for the next chapter. As trading
apps continue to reshape how individual investors engage with markets, Webull’s
meteoric rise could signal a broader shift in how fintech companies approach
public listings in a post-SPAC-boom world.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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USD/JPY breaks the 2025 lows as US stocks crumble

USD/JPY breaks the 2025 lows as US stocks crumble

April 16, 2025 9:10 pm |

The wheels are coming off the equity market with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq down 4.2%. The market was evidently looking for a nod to rate cuts from Powell and it didn’t come.

Now we’re getting some serious kicking and screaming. USD/JPY has broken the 2025 low and is trading at the worst levels since October as stops are hit in a quick, 70 pip move.

This chart is very much looking like it wants to test 140.00 again and if we don’t get some good news on the earnings front, the Nasdaq is likely to test its lows as well.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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China pivots from the US to Canada for more oil amid trade war

China pivots from the US to Canada for more oil amid trade war

April 16, 2025 9:06 pm |

If Canada is able to play its cards right, there are enormous and highly economic long-life oil assets that can be exploited. It would require pipelines to the west coast but there is an increasing national acceptance for those kinds of projects due to antagonism from the United States.

The report highlights how China is aggressively trying to shore up trading relationships, particularly for commodities.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Will Bitcoin Keep Going Up? U.S. Interest in BTC Reserves Sparks Price Speculation

Will Bitcoin Keep Going Up? U.S. Interest in BTC Reserves Sparks Price Speculation

April 16, 2025 8:39 pm |

A quiet policy shift in Washington may set the stage
for the most aggressive Bitcoin price surge yet if the US acts on it. Experts from the Bitcoin Policy Institute believe the
federal government could ignite a parabolic BTC rally by accumulating a massive
Bitcoin reserve, with one estimate placing the price at $1 million per coin.

US Government Bitcoin Purchase

In a recent podcast appearance, Zach Shapiro, head of
policy at the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), explored the implications of the
US government buying 1 million Bitcoin. He described the scenario as a potential “global
seismic shock” that could instantly send the price surging to seven
figures, Cointelegraph reported.

The comments came in the wake of President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order directing the creation of a
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a broader digital asset stockpile.

That policy, aimed at positioning the US as a “Bitcoin
superpower,” instructs agencies to explore budget-neutral strategies for
accumulating Bitcoin without burdening taxpayers.

This “Bitcoin arms race” could reframe national power
in digital terms. Pines added that strategic assets like oil, gold, and land
sales could help fund Bitcoin purchases. Revenues from tariffs and royalties
are also considered non-tax sources of funding.

Tariffs as a Tool for Bitcoin Acquisition

On April 2, Trump issued another executive order
imposing a baseline 10% tariff on all imports. While the broader impact on
trade remains uncertain, Pines pointed to tariffs as a potential budget-neutral
method to fund BTC accumulation.

Senator Cynthia Lummis also reintroduced the BITCOIN
Act, which advocates for increasing US BTC reserves beyond the 1 million mark.
The combination of policy proposals, tariffs, and legislative momentum signals
a shifting approach to how the US might integrate Bitcoin into national
reserves.

On April 15, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $76.42 million in
inflows, marking a second consecutive day of gains, according to data from
Sosovalue. Blackrock, Ark 21Shares, and Bitwise led the charge. In contrast,
ether ETFs lost $14.18 million, continuing a weeks-long outflow trend.

Total net assets in Bitcoin ETFs now sit near $93.72
billion, highlighting a growing divergence in investor sentiment between BTC
and ETH. While Bitcoin ETF activity suggests recovering confidence, Ether’s
continued outflows signal persistent skepticism from institutional players.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Nasdaq takes a turn for the worse after the peak from the Trump U-turn holds

Nasdaq takes a turn for the worse after the peak from the Trump U-turn holds

April 16, 2025 8:37 pm |

President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause to ‘reciprocal but not really reciprocal’ tariffs led to one of the all-time great Nasdaq rallies as the index soared 10%.

The day afterwards it gave a big chunk back before embarking on a fresh effort to make new highs following a weekend suspension of electronics tariffs. However the administration attempted to walk that back and it’s now looking more like a double top at 17,200.

The Nasdaq Composite is down 3.9% today and trading at session lows. It didn’t get any help from Nvidia’s disclosure that it faces new restrictions on China chip sales in yet-another sign of chaotic policymaking. Shares of NVDA are down 10%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Powell sees strong possibility that trade progress will move Fed away from goals

Powell sees strong possibility that trade progress will move Fed away from goals

April 16, 2025 8:36 pm |

  • We will be moving away from goals for the balance of the year, perhaps we can resume next year
  • Tariffs are higher than we expected even in our upside case
  • To the extent it takes longer for tariffs to hit, that risks higher inflation expectations
  • Our role is to make sure this is a one-time increase in prices only
  • CEOs he spoke with yesterday say uncertainty and imports are ‘a huge issue’
  • Notes that covid shortages of chips led to disruption of autos and it contributed to inflation
  • We are still at full employment
  • Tension between goals would be a difficult position for the Fed
  • We could well be in that situation and it will be a very difficult judgement
  • There isn’t a modern experience for how to think about high tariff rates — these are higher that Smoot-Hawley
  • Markets are orderly, functioning as would expect
  • We stand ready to supply dollars to global central banks if needed
  • Domestic discretionary spending is small and not the issue regarding US government debt

The stock market is selling off on his comments

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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