FOREX NEWS & BLOG

Japan May 2025 preliminary industrial production +0.5% m/m (expected +3.4%)

Japan May 2025 preliminary industrial production +0.5% m/m (expected +3.4%)

Japan Industrial Production for May 2025, preliminary, +0.5% m/m for a huge miss

  • expected +3.4%, prior -1.1%

and -1.8% y/y

  • prior +0.5%

Industrial Production forecast 1 month ahead +0.3% m/m

  • prior -3.4%
  • 2 months ahead seen at -0.7%

Data via Ministry of Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry

US tariffs threat but hasn’t even hit yet:

  • automobile industry-specific tariffs of 25%
  • also faces 24% “reciprocal” tariff rate starting on July 9

Japan’s government is trying to get exemptions, but Trump does not sound in the mood to compromise.

more to come

Earlier re Japan:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Revolut Enters Argentina With Purchase of Local Lender From BNP: Report

Revolut Enters Argentina With Purchase of Local Lender From BNP: Report

UK-based fintech Revolut has agreed to acquire Banco
Cetelem in Argentina from BNP Paribas, marking its first direct entry into the
South American banking market, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with
the matter. The deal reportedly includes Cetelem’s local banking
license and roughly $6.4 million in assets.

Establishing Presence in Argentina

The acquisition allows Revolut to establish a formal
presence in Argentina’s financial system as the company pushes ahead with
international expansion plans. The London-headquartered fintech has already
initiated the regulatory approval process with Argentina’s central bank.

Banco Cetelem is one of the smallest lenders in
Argentina, ranking near the bottom of the central bank’s list of financial
institutions by assets. However, the license is seen as a strategic asset for
Revolut, which is increasingly relying on acquisitions to enter new markets.

The company participated in a competitive bidding
process for the bank, which also attracted interest from Southern Cross Group
and brokerage firm Criteria.

Revolut has started staffing for its Argentine
operations and recently appointed Augustin Danza as CEO for the local unit. The
company, which serves 60 million users globally and is valued at around $45
billion, already holds a restricted banking license in the UK and a full
license in Mexico. It is pursuing at least 10 more banking permits worldwide.

Read more: Revolut Names Béatrice Cossa-Dumurgier Western Europe CEO in Banking License Drive

The entry into Argentina comes as President Javier
Milei’s administration rolls out economic reforms that are reshaping the
financial sector. The country is experiencing a revival in credit markets, with
banks issuing mortgages for the first time in years.

Private Sector Lending

According to Bloomberg, data from industry group Adeba
show that private sector lending rose 53% in real terms in 2023, the strongest
growth in more than three decades.

Revolut enters a crowded and competitive landscape,
where regional fintech firms like MercadoLibre and Uala already dominate
consumer digital payments and retail banking services. Still, the company appears intent on leveraging its
new local status to compete in the evolving market.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Trump whining about unfair auto trade, wants Japan to buy more oil

Trump whining about unfair auto trade, wants Japan to buy more oil

Trump has accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices in the automobile sector, calling for Tokyo to boost imports of U.S. energy and goods to help narrow the trade deficit.

In a Fox News interview aired Sunday, Trump criticised the imbalance, noting that while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, Japan takes few American-made cars in return:

  • “They won’t take our cars, and we take millions of theirs. It’s not fair”
  • Japan could import more U.S. oil and other products

Japan is currently trying to secure an exemption from a 25% U.S. auto tariff and avoid a 24% reciprocal tariff due to take effect July 9.

The auto industry makes up roughly 28% of Japan’s ¥21 trillion ($145 billion) in annual exports to the U.S.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Saylor hints at another bitcoin buy, extending 11-week streak

Saylor hints at another bitcoin buy, extending 11-week streak

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has hinted at the firm’s 11th straight week of Bitcoin purchases, continuing a buying streak that began on April 14.

  • “In 21 years, you’ll wish you’d bought more,” Saylor posted on X to his 4.4 million followers

Strategy’s latest purchase was on June 23, when it added 245 BTC for $26 million, boosting its total holdings to 592,345 BTC.

This cements Strategy’s status as the largest known corporate holder of Bitcoin, with more than double the combined holdings of the next 20 largest public Bitcoin treasury firms, according to BitcoinTreasuries.

Info via Coinbase.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1681 – Reuters estimat

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1681 – Reuters estimat

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

  • Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
  • The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
  • Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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US strikes on Iran nuclear sites less damaging than expected, intercepts reveal

US strikes on Iran nuclear sites less damaging than expected, intercepts reveal

Intercepted communications between senior Iranian officials, obtained by the U.S. and reported by the Washington Post, suggest that last weekend’s U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites were less damaging than expected.

The conversations reveal surprise within the Iranian government over the limited scope of the attacks ordered by President Donald Trump. The relatively restrained impact has sparked concern within the U.S. administration that Iran’s nuclear program may soon resume.

The White House has not disputed the authenticity of the intercepted discussions.

The news is getting coverage in media outlets. I wonder if such news will prompt further US attacks?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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European Central Bank annual Sintra forum beings today, 30 June 2025

European Central Bank annual Sintra forum beings today, 30 June 2025

The theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking is Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses

  • 30 June-2 July 2025
  • In Sintra, Portugal

European Central Bank President Lagarde kicks off the speeches at 1730 GMT today, Monday, June 30, 2025.

On Tuesday we’ll hear from a few more of the big guns of global central banking. Powell, Ueda and Bailey will join Lagarde on a policy panel on Tuesday at 1330 GMT.

I’ll have more details tomorrow and Wednesday.

What is the ECB Sintra Forum?

The ECB Forum on Central Banking, often referred to as the Sintra Forum, is the European Central Bank’s flagship annual policy conference. It takes place in Sintra, Portugal, typically in late June or early July, and is modeled after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

Key Features:

  • Hosted by: European Central Bank

  • Location: Sintra, Portugal

  • Established: 2014

  • Attendees: Central bankers, academics, market economists, and policymakers from around the world

  • Purpose: To discuss long-term policy challenges, monetary strategy, inflation dynamics, structural shifts, and global macroeconomic risks

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Trump troofs out, says he’s a cost cutting Republican

Trump troofs out, says he’s a cost cutting Republican

Trump tweeting:

Republican’s on Congress are conerned about their re-election prospects, Trump tryin to calm nerves. How effecitve that might be iwill be debated by the political folks out there.

Meanwhile keep your eye on the USD:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Why XRP Is Going Down: Price Falls 3% After Court Denies Settlement Deal

Why XRP Is Going Down: Price Falls 3% After Court Denies Settlement Deal

A U.S. federal judge has denied a joint request by the
Securities and Exchange Commission and Ripple Labs to approve a reduced $50
million settlement and dissolve a prior court injunction in the agency’s
long-running case against the crypto firm, Reuters reported.

U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan
rejected the motion on Thursday, stating that the parties failed to demonstrate
exceptional circumstances that would justify setting aside her earlier ruling.

This latest development has caused a decline in the price of XRP, now ranked 4th with a market capitalization of more than $125 billion. At the time of publication, XRP was down 3%, trading at $2.12.

Judge Rejects Ripple-SEC Settlement

In 2023, the judge had imposed a $125 million civil
penalty and a permanent injunction against Ripple for selling XRP tokens to
institutional investors without registering them as securities.

“The parties do not have the authority to agree not to
be bound by a court’s final judgment that a party violated an Act of Congress,”
Torres wrote in her ruling. She added that the court would deny any request to
vacate the injunction or reduce the penalty if jurisdiction returned.

Read more: XRP Price Analysis: These Analysts Predict Breakout by September as Price Holds Key Support

The joint settlement request, submitted in May, sought
to resolve the case with a $50 million penalty, far below the SEC’s original
demand of $2 billion. Both sides agreed to the proposal while their respective
appeals remained pending. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals had granted a
60-day pause to allow the lower court to consider the motion.

Citing Supreme Court Precedent

Judge Torres cited Supreme Court precedent in her
decision, emphasizing that enforcement actions involving violations of federal
law cannot be reversed solely through private agreement. The SEC filed its initial lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, alleging that the company raised funds through unregistered
securities sales of its XRP token.

Torres later ruled in July 2023 that XRP sales on
public exchanges did not meet the definition of securities, but that $728
million worth of XRP sales to institutional investors did fall under securities
law.

In response to Thursday’s decision, Ripple Chief Legal
Officer Stuart Alderoty posted on social media that the company has not yet
determined its next steps. The SEC declined to comment.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Tcorp economist calls on RBA to abandon 2.5% inflation midpoint target

Tcorp economist calls on RBA to abandon 2.5% inflation midpoint target

Bloomberg is gated, but in breif:

NSW Treasury Corporation’s (TCorp) chief economist Brian Redican has called on the Reserve Bank of Australia to scrap its focus on hitting the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target range

  • the benchmark imposes unrealistic expectations on monetary policy
  • creates unnecessary confusion in financial markets:
  • inflation outcomes are more likely to be shaped by global forces such as oil prices or U.S. trade policy than by small tweaks to interest rates
  • RBA has muddied communication due to its reliance on economic models to justify its decisions
  • dismissed the relevance of the neutral rate

His comments come ahead of a new Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy to be signed by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the RBA board. The statement is expected to formalise recommendations from the RBA review, including the adoption of a 2.5% midpoint target.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week, July 7 and 8. A 25bp rate cut is widely expected.

The latest monthly CPI data point, 2.1% headline for May, if reflected in the official quarterly data, argues for further near term cuts ahead.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Trump’s chaotic trade policies to crush Australian commodity export earnings

Trump’s chaotic trade policies to crush Australian commodity export earnings

Australia’s mining and energy export earnings are forecast to continue falling over the next two years, weighed down by weaker bulk commodity prices, rising global supply, and mounting trade policy uncertainties, according to the federal government’s June-quarter resources and energy report (the report is from Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources).

  • Export revenues are projected to fall from A$415 billion in 2023–24 to A$385 billion this year, and then to A$352 billion by 2026–27.
  • Iron ore and LNG — the country’s largest exports — are set to face price declines due to increased global supply.
  • Iron ore earnings are forecast to drop from A$116 billion this year to A$97 billion by 2026–27.

The report highlights growing caution among global businesses, as uncertainty around U.S. trade policy prompts investment delays and suppresses commodity demand.

Not all sectors are under pressure.

  • Gold is expected to become Australia’s third-largest export next year, reaching A$56 billion, with both prices and volumes climbing.
  • Lithium is also forecast to rebound gradually, with earnings projected to rise from A$4.6 billion this year to A$6.6 billion in 2026–27.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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USDJPY Price Forecast & Predictions for 2025, 2026, 2027–2030 and Beyond

USDJPY Price Forecast & Predictions for 2025, 2026, 2027–2030 and Beyond

Traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, the yen has faced significant challenges in recent years. As a result, the USDJPY pair, representing the balance of power between the US and Japanese economies, has turned into a battleground for bulls and bears. Given these developments, what lies ahead for this currency pair? Which factors are likely to exert the most influence on its trajectory? This article provides predictions for the USDJPY exchange rate for 2025, 2026, 2027, and beyond. These forecasts are shaped by various factors, including macroeconomic trends, geopolitical developments, and technological innovation. Major Takeaways The current price of the pair… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance

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