FOREX NEWS & BLOG

In the European session we don’t have much on the agenda. There’s only the Eurozone CPI report but since it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care much. In the American session, we have the Canadian CPI report, which is going to be the main event for today.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada October CPI

The Canadia CPI
Y/Y is expected at 1.9% vs. 1.6% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3%
vs. -0.4% prior. The focus will be on the underlying inflation measures with
the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y expected at 2.4% vs. 2.4% prior, while the Median CPI
Y/Y is seen at 2.4% vs. 2.3% prior.

The BoC is now focused
on growth as the inflation rate has been inside the target band for several months while
economic activity slowed down. The market is pricing a 35% chance of another 50
bps cut in December, so lower than expected inflation readings will likely
raise those probabilities.

Central bank speakers:

• 08:45 GMT – ECB’s Elderson (neutral – voter)
• 10:15 GMT – BoE’s Bailey (dove – voter)
• 18:10 GMT/13:10 ET – Fed’s Schmid (hawk – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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The dollar is lightly changed but sitting a little more mixed as we look towards European morning trade today. USD/JPY is once again the notable mover as it slides back down towards the 154.00 level in Asia. The pair is holding lower as Treasury yields are also seen pulling back a little to start the week.

The question this week is whether or not we’ll see the post-election momentum in the dollar continue. And for now, that seems to be stalling at the very least.

There won’t be much on the agenda to distract from that in the session ahead. As such, traders will be left to their own devices again in trying to deal with prevailing market sentiment. With the dollar stalling, one of the standouts this week has been gold which is back up to $2,620 levels currently. That is one interesting spot to watch at least.

As for major currencies, it is time to reassess things before the PMI data on Friday and then switching the focus to month-end next week.

0700 GMT – Switzerland October trade balance data0900 GMT – Eurozone September current account balance1000 GMT – Eurozone October final CPI figures

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Goldman Sachs says that they see the ‘Magnificent 7’ carrying the benchmark index mostly, with the bunch set to outperform as compared to the other index constituents. That being said, they do expect the ‘Magnificent 7’ to only outperform by about 7% – the slimmest margin in seven years.

Adding to upside risks, the firm sees a “friendlier mix” of fiscal policy and a more dovish Fed as helping. However, they do warn that risks remain high for broader US equities going into 2025. And that is due to the threat from Trump’s tariffs and also higher bond yields.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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And that comes after a key test of the 1.0500 mark last week, with the importance of the level underlined here. The bounce this week sees the pair nudge up closer to 1.0600 but is also pausing a little since overnight trading. That coincides with the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this month, also seen at the figure level.

Besides that, offers layered at the 1.0600 mark are also in play for now and that is keeping the bounce in check. Looking to the near-term chart though:

We can more clearly see how the dollar momentum has stalled. That considering price action has now moved back above its 100-hour moving average (red line). As such, the near-term bias is now more neutral with price holding above that but below its 200-hour moving average (blue line). The latter is seen at 1.0633 currently. So, there is some slight room for price to extend higher before any threat to fully reversing the selling momentum.

As such, sellers i.e. dollar bulls will have a clear near-term level to defend in the sessions ahead to keep the post-election momentum.

This is a similar state to other dollar pairs, including GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. All are seeing their price action keep in between the respective near-term levels as outlined in EUR/USD above as well.

That points to a pause in the dollar rally as traders catch their breath following the post-election run. We’re now in the period of reassessing that with Treasury yields also stalling following the recent upside. The best gauge in making sense of these momentum shifts will be to look at the charts as per the above.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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