The AUD/JPY edged up on Monday and gained 0.17%, finishing the day near 94.79 as traders digested actions by the White House, which sent several letters to countries, setting tariffs on their imports into the US. Although it usually triggered a risk-off impulse, the Yen failed to gain traction.
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BofA argues that the Swiss franc (CHF) remains exceptionally strong — the second-best performing G10 currency YTD — because it has reasserted itself as the true safe-haven hedge, alongside gold, amid global fiscal worries and geopolitical risks. Standard “risk-off” explanations fail to capture the full story: CHF strength is driven more by structural forces, including Switzerland’s fiscal credibility, the FX options market, and the lack of effective intervention tools by the SNB.
Key Points:
Traditional “risk-off” explanations are too simple:• The usual claim is that CHF rallies as a geopolitical risk hedge, but this doesn’t fully explain its outperformance because broader market volatility remains near recent lows.• The only traditional correlation that still holds up is CHF’s tight link with gold — both are liquid non-USD hedges.
Japan’s JPY no longer holds the ‘safe-haven’ crown:• CHF (and gold) are the standout non-USD hedges today, since the yen has lost credibility as a pure risk-off proxy.• The SNB’s return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) has not deterred the market’s appetite for CHF.
The options market signals deeper demand:• USD/CHF 1-year implied vol premium is at its highest since 2017 versus the G10 average — highlighting how CHF is increasingly used to hedge fiscal risk.• This dynamic shows that “risk-off” means more than just classic vol metrics like the VIX; it now includes deep fiscal concerns, especially in the US.
The SNB’s policy levers look ineffective:• Verbal interventions have failed.• Physical FX intervention is constrained, partly due to political constraints tied to US tariff tensions.• The SNB’s traditional rate policy cannot offset deep, structural safe-haven flows when investors trust Switzerland’s fiscal prudence while worrying about ballooning deficits elsewhere.
BofA’s big picture view:• If global fiscal sustainability becomes a more pervasive concern, the CHF will stay stronger for longer — especially versus the USD and JPY.• The SNB may need to “think outside the box.” This could mean prioritizing explicit FX management over rates, effectively turning interest rates into an endogenous tool to manage the currency rather than inflation targeting alone.
Conclusion:
BofA sees stronger-for-longer CHF as the base case because global capital wants a liquid, credible hedge against fiscal uncertainty — and the franc fills that niche better than almost any other G10 currency today. Unless the SNB adopts more radical FX management tools, efforts to weaken the franc will likely remain ineffective.
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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has defended the company’s controversial tokenized
stock offering linked to OpenAI, saying the structure gives retail investors
valuable exposure even if the tokens do not represent actual equity, CNBC reported.The remarks come after OpenAI publicly distanced itself from the
product and EU regulators began reviewing its compliance.
OpenAI: No Approval Given for Equity Representation
Last week, OpenAI issued a warning on X, stating that
Robinhood’s tokens do not represent actual shares in the company and that any
transfer of OpenAI equity requires prior approval, something the AI firm said
it never granted.
Robinhood CEO downplays OpenAI concerns on tokenized stock structure https://t.co/6tWzgrtBXa
— CNBC Tech (@CNBCtech) July 8, 2025
Robinhood launched the product as part of its
broader effort to allow EU-based users access to synthetic exposure in
high-profile U.S. companies, including private firms.
“Not Technically Equity, but Still Exposure”
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Tuesday, Tenev acknowledged that the tokens are not technically
equity but argued that this distinction is not the most important factor.
However, he said that what was important was that retail customers have an opportunity to get exposure to this asset, referring to OpenAI and other private firms. He added that OpenAI’s structure already
allows for indirect institutional exposure through instruments that convert to
equity under certain conditions.
JUST IN: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says tokenization is the biggest innovation “in the past decade.” pic.twitter.com/fhiTiaCSw2
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) July 8, 2025
Robinhood said its OpenAI tokens are backed by a stake
in a special purpose vehicle (SPV), which is designed to provide synthetic
exposure rather than direct ownership. This structure enables users to
participate in the performance of hard-to-access private firms without holding
traditional shares.
Lithuanian Regulator Seeks Clarification
The Bank of Lithuania, which oversees Robinhood’s EU
operations, said it is assessing the legality of the token product following
OpenAI’s public statement.
Robinhood stock tokens face scrutiny in the European Union after OpenAI warning https://t.co/Ml8joslub2
— CNBC (@CNBC) July 7, 2025
He added that information given to investors “must be
provided in clear, fair, and non-misleading language.” In response, Tenev said
the company will work with regulators and emphasized that Robinhood anticipated
questions. “Since this is a new thing, regulators are going to want to look at
it,” he said.
The situation highlights the regulatory uncertainty
surrounding new financial instruments offering access to private markets. While
Robinhood markets the tokens as a way to democratize exposure to growth
companies, the dispute with OpenAI and the involvement of EU regulators suggest
a longer road ahead in proving the model’s legitimacy.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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Markets opened the week under the shadow of familiar ghosts.
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The NZDUSD has seen choppy price action today, initially rising on the back of the RBA rate decision (no change when a 25 basis point cut was expected) before reversing lower on renewed US dollar buying, briefly turning negative on the day. Over the past few hours, the pair has recovered modestly and is now up 0.08%, hovering near unchanged levels as traders position ahead of the RBNZ rate decision.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25%, after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points from its peak of 5.5%. A majority of NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board members also support holding rates steady, citing mixed inflation signals and global uncertainty. Most expect the monetary easing cycle is nearing its end, with the OCR likely remaining between 2.75% and 3.25% over the coming year. While several members see limited room for further cuts, two still favor more easing to support the domestic economy.
From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart shows the price fell below both its 100- and 200-bar moving averages yesterday. During today’s Asia-Pacific session, the pair briefly reclaimed the 200-bar MA but stalled ahead of the 100-bar MA, currently near 0.6033. Sellers have since pushed the pair lower again, briefly dipping below the 50% retracement of the move up from the May low at 0.5982, with the session low reaching 0.59782.
This range — between the 50% midpoint at 0.5982 and the 100-bar MA at 0.6033 — marks the key technical zone for traders. A break above 0.6033 would shift the bias more bullish, while a move below 0.5982 would invite further downside, targeting the 61.8% retracement at 0.5950, followed by the key swing area between 0.5882 and 0.5893. These levels will guide directional conviction ahead of the RBNZ’s decision, and after it as well.
Right now, the bias is tilted a little to the downside below the MA levels. However, the price does remain closer to the highs going back to October 2024. So buyers and sellers both have to prove themselves. Getting below the 50% gives the sellers even more control. Getting above the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart which showed that the buyers are back in firm control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Silver price seesaws around a $36.15-$37.22 range on Monday, but it is set to finish the day with losses of over 0.23% at $36.74 at the time of writing.
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EUR/USD tumbled on Monday during the North American session amid a risk-off impulse, courtesy of an escalation in the trade war, as US President Donald Trump began sending letters with tariffs imposed on some countries.
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This is a moderate rise and doesn’t set off any alarm bells.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Tensions
in the Iran-Israel conflict have eased, and the oil market has largely avoided
any significant supply disruptions. On top of that, the IEA doubled down on its
mid-June forecast that demand will stabilize by the end of the decade. Given
all this, it’s no surprise that oil
prices have dropped back below $70.
This is
only good news for oil-importing countries, since lower prices mean lower
spending and greater economic benefit. But for exporters, the opposite is true.
Naturally, one would have expected OPEC+ to take steps to boost prices again,
for example by keeping production stable at its July meeting.
But the
complete opposite happened: contrary to logic, the cartel not only increased
the number of barrels produced per day, but to a higher figure than many had
expected: 548,000 barrels per day, instead of the 411,000 previously planned.
In addition, another equal increase could be announced for September.
It might
be thought that this has been done to discipline members such as Kazakhstan,
which have been exceeding their production quotas. And it would make sense if
oil prices were to fall as a consequence, but the complete opposite happened:
after an initial decline, a barrel of Brent rose to $69 a barrel on Monday.
As for
the stock market reaction, indexes including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq
went red on Monday. But it was not due to fears that rising oil prices would
fuel inflation and slow the Fed’s
path of rate cuts. Rather, the drop came on
disappointing news about tariff negotiations with South Korea and Japan.
Why was
this decision made, and why did prices rise?
Starting
with the first question: according to OPEC+, the decision to increase
production was based on a “stable global economic outlook and currently healthy
market fundamentals”. But it is unclear where this optimism comes from, given
that major trade disputes remain unresolved and the Fed is in no hurry to cut
interest rates.
As for
the second question, prices may have risen in response to Saudi Aramco’s $1 per
barrel increase in its Arab Light crude, which puts it $2.20 above the regional
benchmark for Asian buyers. Hopes for progress in trade negotiations may also
have played a role. If so, the basis for further price rises looks rather
shaky.
Thus,
logic suggests that prices are likely to fall unless a new geopolitical crisis
hits a region critical to oil supply.
The
continued decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States,
despite Donald
Trump’s calls to “drill, baby, drill,” also suggests that shale
producers are not feeling bullish about the market. As for investment bank
analysts, many expect oil prices to fall back toward $60 per barrel in the
fourth quarter.
But, as
always, the market may still hold some surprises.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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More Trump:
On Israel:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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The US treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the six-month averages of the major components. Those averages show:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.3670 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs set to go into effect on August 1 for some trading partners.
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