Let’s finish our recap of the year for the U.S. dollar by breaking down the downtrend we saw in the Greenback between October to December 2024.
Feed from Babypips.com
U.S. Dollar Recap 2024: Part 3 – USD’s Remarkable Year-End Sprint
read more
FOREX NEWS & BLOG
Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 31 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
It’s another patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas.
Liquidity and interest is going to remain thin. It’ll pick up a little from January 2 and 3 but will approach normal from the 6th.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Dogecoin Over Bucks? Elon Musk’s Bold Solution for America’s Debt Crisis
The US debt crisis has caused intense debate. Elon
Musk and Donald Trump are proposing unconventional solutions, including
integrating cryptocurrencies into fiscal policy.
While Musk warns of an impending “de facto
bankruptcy,” Trump has doubled down on plans to create a strategic Bitcoin
reserve, positioning it as a potential remedy for the spiraling $36 trillion
debt. The tech billionaire highlighted the debt crisis on social media X while responding to a tweet promoting meme crypto Dogecoin as a solution to the problem.
We either fix this or go de facto bankrupt https://t.co/hmjpx6uBfd
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 26, 2024
Rising Debt and Inflation
The US national debt has ballooned over recent years,
exacerbated by pandemic-related stimulus measures and aggressive Federal
Reserve rate hikes aimed at controlling runaway inflation, Forbes reported.
As of early 2024, the debt reportedly surpassed
$34 trillion, with government spending outpacing revenue by nearly $2 trillion
in 2023. Once topping 10%, inflation rates pushed the Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates at an unprecedented pace. Increased borrowing costs and a strained national budget have now sparked fears of fiscal challenges.
In November, Musk, a vocal critic of inefficient
government spending, proposed the “Doge Department of Government
Efficiency,” a sarcastic approval of the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. He claimed the initiative could cut $2 trillion in
wasteful expenditures, but critics question its feasibility.
America is currently headed for bankruptcy super fast https://t.co/Tm6JFJ6mef
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 23, 2024
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has embraced Bitcoin as a key
element of his economic vision. Earlier this year, he discussed using Bitcoin to help pay off the national debt, suggesting that blockchain
technology could unlock significant wealth.
Trump also proposed creating a US Bitcoin reserve
similar to the strategic oil reserve, predicting Bitcoin’s market value could
surpass gold’s $16 trillion capitalization.
Crypto and Debt Problems
While Musk and Trump are turning to crypto as a potential tool for fiscal reform, others remain skeptical. Bitcoin’s volatility, trading around $93k at the time of publication, has raised concerns
about its stability as a national asset.
Despite these radical proposals, the US dollar remains
important in global finance. Its ability to support massive borrowing has
reportedly protected the country from the fiscal crises that have
affected nations like Greece. However, this dominance is not guaranteed
forever.
As debates over the role of cryptocurrency and fiscal
policy continue, Musk’s warning highlights the proposals that ideas like
Bitcoin reserves could be sustainable paths.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Feed from Financemagnates.com
USDJPY tests the rising 100 hour MA in early US trading. Key barometer in the short term
The USDJPY is trading in a modest range today at 59 pips vs the 22 day average (about a month of trading) at 139 pips.
The price high came in at 158.064. That was just short of the high price from last week at 158.080. Sellers leaned and pushed the price mostly lower. The low price in the current hour just reached 157.495. That was just below its 100 hour moving average of 157.503 but just barely.
Getting and staying below the 100-hour moving average is needed to give the sellers some confidence. Recall going back to December 17 and December 18, the price also tested the rising 100-hour moving just before the FOMC rate decision on December 18. The hawkish Fed pushed the pair higher.
With the consolidation over the last few days, the 100-hour moving average has moved closer to the price making the moving average the key barometer today, and going forward.
If the moving average does hold support, I would expect a break outside the 158.08 high from last week. Looking at the daily chart, there is a wide swing area between 157.665 and 158.86. On a break above 158.08, the 158.86 level would be targeted.(see red numbered circles on the chart below).
Conversely, if the 100 hour MA is broken, the swing high from back in November at 156.74 and the rising 200-hour MA would be targeted at 156.474.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Terraform Labs Founder Do Kwon to Face US Fraud Charges After Extradition
After 18 months of legal battles, Montenegro has
approved the extradition of the disgraced crypto entrepreneur Do Kwon to the
United States, where he faces fraud charges, local media publication Vijesti reported.
In May 2022, the cryptocurrency market faced heightened volatility that left investors with losses. Two digital tokens, TerraUSD and
Luna, lost nearly all their value, erasing nearly $40 billion from the market in days.
This disaster marked one of the most significant
failures in crypto history, with South Korean entrepreneur Do Kwon at its
center.
Montenegro’s Crucial Decision
Montenegro’s Minister of Justice, Bojan Božović, has
now signed the order allowing Do Kwon’s extradition to the United States,
following a detailed review by the country’s Supreme Court.
While South Korea also sought his extradition, the
Ministry prioritized the US request, citing the severity of the charges and
broader legal considerations. This decision ended months of courtroom
deliberations, as Montenegro lacked direct extradition treaties with either
country.
The downfall of TerraUSD and Luna triggered global
outrage. US regulators accused Kwon of orchestrating a multibillion-dollar
fraud through his company, Terraform Labs.
Outgoing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler claimed Kwon misled
investors with promises of stability and growth for his tokens. Despite
billions in investments, the tokens entered a death spiral in May 2022,
sparking a broader cryptocurrency sell-off.
Interpol issued a “red notice” for Kwon in
September 2022. Authorities tracked him across multiple countries before his
arrest in Montenegro in March 2023. He was detained at Podgorica Airport while
attempting to board a flight to Dubai using forged documents.
Mounting Legal Troubles
Kwon has faced legal troubles worldwide. In February
2023, US regulators charged him with fraud, alleging he misrepresented
TerraUSD’s stability. Meanwhile, his partner, Han Cheng Jun, was extradited to
South Korea earlier this year.
In Montenegro, Kwon served a four-month sentence for
forging official documents. Following his release, authorities detained him
again while deciding his fate for extradition.
With Montenegro’s decision finalized, Kwon will be
extradited to the US, where he faces charges of securities fraud and investor
deception. The case is expected to set an important moment in cryptocurrency
regulation, potentially shaping how global authorities handle similar incidents
in the future.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Feed from Financemagnates.com
Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, December 31, 2024 – China official December PMIs due
The official PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be published today. I’ve referred to ‘green shoots’ beginning, tentatively, to show for the Chinese economy. PMIs have been key to this. In H2 of 2024 manufacturing has improved, slowly, while services have held in expansion.
Manufacturing PMI:
- July 2024: 49.4, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity. Production expanded slightly (50.1), but new orders fell (49.3).
- August 2024: Remained at 49.4, continuing contraction as challenges persisted in the sector.
- September 2024: Rose to 49.8, showing a slower pace of contraction. Output grew the most in five months.
- October 2024: Increased to 50.1, crossing into expansion territory for the first time in six months, reflecting initial impacts of fiscal stimulus.
- November 2024: Improved further to 50.3, showing modest expansion with strengthening domestic demand.
Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI:
- July 2024: 51.5, indicating expansion in services, though at a slower pace.
- August 2024: Declined to 51.0, still expanding but with reduced momentum.
- September 2024: Decreased to 50.0, marking stagnation in the sector.
- October 2024: Edged up slightly to 50.2, suggesting mild recovery.
- November 2024: Held steady at 50.0, showing stable but subdued performance.
Both manufacturing and services are expected to hold in expansion in today’s data. While not shown on the calendar, the Composite PMI is also expected to hold in expansion. It was 50.8 in November.
***
Also not shown on the calendar are the December data expectations and priors for Australian Financial Aggregates, AKA Private Sector Credit data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) typically releases its Financial Aggregates data on the last business day of each month at 11:30 am Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST). Thus, the December 2024 figures should be published today Tuesday, 31 December 2024.
However, due to the holiday period, there may be adjustments to the publication schedule. For instance, the November 2024 Financial Aggregates were released earlier than usual on Friday, 20 December 2024. As of now, I’ve found no indication of a change for the December release. So, I am expecting the December 2024 Financial Aggregates to be published on 31 December 2024 at 11:30 am AEST.
- 0030 GMT, 1930 US Eastern time
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Gold has risen in December for seven straight years — that streak is about to end
Barring a miracle turnaround in the final two trading days of the month, gold will finish lower in December. That’s unusual because there has been a strong seasonal tailwind for gold in December forever and it’s risen in the month in every year since 2016.
Now, it’s not hard to understand why gold is lower this month. The Fed took a hawkish turn, the US dollar has strengthened and bonds sold off. Gold priced in yen, for instance, is up 3.4% in the month.
There is also plenty of good news for gold bulls on the year, as it’s gained 26.5% — that’s the best year since 2010.
Perhaps another good sign is that the prior two times where it declined in December — 2015 and 2016 — it rallied strongly in January, by 6.6% and 5.4%, respectively.
Technically, there is some consolidation ongoing after a big run-up since March.
Fundamentally, I think the most-important driver right now is that China’s central bank has resumed buying gold. We should get an update on December purchases around the 7th of January and it will be an important signal if they continue to buy.
I will also be watching Russia in January and for signs that Trump could end the Ukraine war (so far, it’s not looking likely).
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
US natural gas prices rise 18% as models show a brutal January cold snap
The polar vortex is pushing south and east in what could be a record-breaking cold snap in parts of the United States.
Several models are converging around cold weather in the eastern half of the US in the second week of January. The peak of the cold looks to be around January 12 but some of the modelling has an extended period of cold. If it unfolds, there will surely be record US natural gas demand and that could also be combined with well shut-ins due to freeze offs in Texas and the Marcellus.
Needless to say, there could be macro impacts as well. Higher natural gas prices feed into headline inflation while I would also expect the cold to dampen US consumer spending.
Henry hub natural gas prices on the February contract were last up 59-cents to $3.98.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 24.12.2024
Dear readers, I’ve prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on the Elliott wave analysis. Major Takeaways BTCUSD: The price may decline in a correction. Consider short positions from the current level with Take Profit at 91,965.00. XRPUSD: A decline to a low of 1.897 is expected. Consider short positions with Take Profit at 1.897. ETHUSD: A price decline to a low of 3,083.00 is expected. Consider selling from the current level with Take Profit at 3,083.00. Elliott Wave Analysis for Bitcoin BTCUSD has presumably formed a correction [4] as a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). A new bullish wave is developing in the… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Feed from Litefinance.com
Forex Today: Year-end markets spin a tight circle ahead of midweek holiday
Markets are struggling to find a reason to move too much in either direction ahead of the New Year’s market closures, which will see most global exchanges shuttered during the middle of the trading week.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 300 points during holiday pullback
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed over 300 points on Monday, plunging to a near-term low just south of 42,300 before a half-hearted recovery back to 42,500 as equities swoon in one of the last trading days of the year.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
Gold Recap 2024: Part 1 – From Sideways to Stardom!
Let’s kick off a quick recap of the year for gold. Because it is the king reserve asset for many, gold is always one to watch for fresh short & long-term opportunities.
Feed from Babypips.com