The AUD/USD pair weakens to around 0.6190, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday.
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AUD/USD holds below 0.6200 ahead of Trump’s inauguration
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FOREX NEWS & BLOG
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attracts some sellers below $2,700, eyes on Trump’s inauguration
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its decline to near $2,695 during the early Asian session on Monday.
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First Israeli hostages freed as Gaza ceasefire takes effect
A long-delayed ceasefire in the Gaza conflict started to take hold when Hamas released three female hostages in return for 90 Palestinians imprisoned in Israel, per Bloomberg.
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South Korea’s Crypto Exchange Upbit Faces Suspension Over KYC Violations
South Korea’s top cryptocurrency exchange, Upbit, is
facing a regulatory storm. Accused of breaching Know Your Customer (KYC)
obligations, the platform faces a suspension that could bar it from registering
new users for six months.
According to local media publication Naver, The
Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), part of South Korea’s Financial Services
Commission, issued the suspension notice following a review of Upbit’s business
license renewal.
FIU Cracks Down on KYC Failures
According to the report, the regulator discovered
between 500,000 and 700,000 instances of improper KYC verification. This
revelation could reportedly result in fines totaling $34.3 billion, with
penalties of up to $68,600 per violation under the country’s Special Financial
Transactions Act.
Additionally, authorities allege that Upbit violated
laws restricting transactions with unregistered foreign crypto service
providers. An FIU spokesperson stated the enforcement action highlights a
commitment to restoring order and fairness in the cryptocurrency space.
.@Official_Upbit could face sanctions in South Korea for not complying with country’s money laundering and KYC obligations, according to a report. By @camomileshumba.https://t.co/Q8jws6Nz7U
— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) January 16, 2025
While the proposed sanctions would only limit new user
registrations, the reputational and financial fallout could be far-reaching.
Upbit, which controls over 70% of South Korea’s crypto trading volume, reported
daily trades exceeding $7 billion in 2024, according to CoinGecko data.
With its business license renewal still under review,
the timing of these penalties could complicate its ability to operate smoothly
in the future. The FIU will reportedly finalize its decision on January 21,
following Upbit’s opportunity to present its case by January 20.
This disciplinary action signals a broader regulatory
push to strengthen anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures in the cryptocurrency space.
Tightening Regulations
The Virtual Asset User Protection Act, implemented in
July 2024, has already reshaped the compliance landscape, forcing exchanges to
navigate stricter requirements.
The digital asset market is closely monitoring the
situation, with fears that Upbit’s case may set a precedent for harsher
enforcement across the industry. The controversy followed the 2017 data breach at
Bithumb, another major South Korean exchange, which exposed 31,000 user
accounts.
South Korea’s regulators have since tightened their
grip on crypto businesses, as seen in this high-profile action against Upbit. The industry now awaits the FIU’s final ruling, which
will determine Upbit’s fate and the regulatory trajectory for South Korea’s
crypto sector.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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Nomura are expecting a March Fed rate cut then a US inflationary shock due to tariffs
A brief summary of a note from Nomura re their outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy:
- foresee a single 25 basis point rate cut occurring in March 2025, after which the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady for an extended period due to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs.
- In the early stages of a potential second Trump administration, economic policy discussions will primarily centre around tariffs and tax regulations.
- By mid-2025, inflation driven by tariffs is expected to prompt the Federal Reserve to halt its rate-cutting cycle for an extended duration.
- The job market is showing signs of slowing, with risks tilted toward further weakening. However, a gradual decline is more probable than a sudden downturn.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Trump spoke at a rally – hinted at action on immigration and energy (nothing on tariffs)
Trump spoke on Sunday at a rally in Washinton:
- going to stop the invasion of our borders
- going to unlock the liquid gold under our feet
- will act tomorrow with historic speed and strength
- spoke with Apple’s Cook, he said they’d make massive investment in the US
Earlier:
- Trump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soon
- Leaks around Trump’s ‘day one’ executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all
No mention of tariffs in the comments (see that second link).
Still plenty of ****coins being launched:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Reminder – US markets are closed on Monday, January 20, 2025
Repeating what I posted last week as a heads up to this.
Monday January 20 is the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the US:
- The two major stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2025
- Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed (SIFMA is the trade group that represents the bond market).
As for the CME futures trade … well, its complicated 🙂
My summary:
Equity Products & Interest Rate Products (ps. times are US Central time, add 1 for US Eastern time):
- Friday, January 17 Regular Hours
- Sunday, January 19 5:00pm open
- Monday, January 20
- 12:00pm Trading Halt
- 5:00pm Trading Resumes
- Tuesday, January 21 Regular Hours
FX & Crypto:
- Friday, January 17 Regular Hours
- Sunday, January 19 5:00pm open
- Monday, January 20
- 4:00pm Trading Halt
- 5:00pm Trading Resumes
- Tuesday, January 21 Regular Hours
NYSE
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Leaks around Trump’s ‘day one’ executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all
Any rapid imposition of tariffs would be viewed in market as a negative for risk at this stage.
As an update to this earlier:
in reports on these leaks there is no mention of tariffs.
To conclude ‘no tariffs to be announced today’, based on the leaks we have so far, might be reasonable. The caution is, of course, we all learnt from Trump’s first administration that his admin’s policymaking can be volatile and unpredictable. So instead of reaching a solid conclusion it might be best to reach a tentative one, with a probability attached. Based on the politics (I’m not an expert on politics) it would seem perhaps 75 – 80% certain of no tariffs to be imposed on day one. That gives some wiggle room. The next step is to not bet the farm on Trump politics. The next step is to ensure you have a stop loss in place.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Trading Nike After Fiscal Q2 2025 Performance
Nike released its fiscal second-quarter 2025 earnings report. Learn more about the report and what analysts forecast for the stock.
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Trump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soon
Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Extract:
- Trump is readying a blitz of executive orders that he plans to issue just hours after he is sworn into office
- orders, which would make major changes to immigration, energy and government hiring policies
- Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy, briefed a small number of senior GOP leaders Sunday afternoon about the administration’s plans. They include declaring a national emergency on the U.S.-Mexico border, rescinding Biden administration directives on diversity, equity and inclusion and unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land, Miller told the lawmakers, according to Capitol Hill Republicans briefed on the call.
Bolding is mine.
Trump will be sworn in during the day (US time) on Monday, January 20, 2025.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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eToro Files for Nasdaq Listing with $5B IPO Valuation: Report
After years of ups and downs, eToro has confidentially
filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in the U.S., targeting a valuation
of over $5 billion, the Financial Times reported. If successful, the move could position the company as one of
the few publicly traded companies offering crypto trading in the region,
alongside giants like Coinbase and Robinhood.
A Resilient Comeback
This isn’t eToro’s first attempt to go public. In
2021, the platform planned a $10.4 billion SPAC merger but abandoned the effort
due to challenging market conditions. Fast forward to 2023, eToro reportedly raised $250 million at a
$3.5 billion valuation, signaling a rebound fueled by rising equity and
cryptocurrency markets.
Finance Magnates contacted eToro for a comment about the IPO, and a representative from the company said: “We are not commenting on IPO rumors.” Meanwhile, in 2024, eToro reached a settlement with the SEC over
alleged violations of federal securities laws. The company paid $1.5 million in
penalties and restricted U.S. users to trading only a handful of
cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and Bitcoin Cash.
“By removing tokens offered as investment contracts from its
platform, eToro has chosen to come into compliance and operate within our
established regulatory framework,” Gurbir Grewal, the then Director of the SEC’s
Division of Enforcement, commented while announcing the settlement last year.
“This resolution not only enhances investor protection but
also offers a pathway for other crypto intermediaries,” he said.
Competing in the Public Market
This regulatory scrutiny has not deterred eToro from
pursuing a U.S. listing. If eToro succeeds, it will join other publicly traded
companies offering cryptocurrency trading. However, it will face stiff competition from Coinbase and
Robinhood.
Still, eToro’s focus on a diverse asset portfolio and its social
investment features could give it an edge in attracting retail traders. eToro ambitions to go public gathered momentum last year when the firm confirmed the move in an interview with CNBC.
‘We definitely are eyeing the public markets’: eToro CEO considers IPO after scrapped SPAC deal https://t.co/c5UFrZQpLQ
— CNBC (@CNBC) February 26, 2024
Interest in crypto investments skyrocketed after the US elections, with eToro experiencing a high influx of activity. During the FMLS24, Daniel Moczulski, eToro’s Managing Director for the UK, commented about November’s crypto boom, saying: “This one seems to be a lot of returning investors.”
“So, we are not seeing the new accounts that we may have
seen in the past,” he continued. “But I think that is an indication of the maturity of the
asset in that it’s not something that people are coming too fresh now.”
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 20 January 2025
As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Note also that today, Monday, January 20, 2025, is a US market holiday.
Guide:
- EUR/USD 1.0280
- USD/JPY 156.27
- GBP/USD 1.2165
- USD/CHF 0.9140
- USD/CAD 1.4470
- AUD/USD 0.6195
- NZD/USD 0.5588
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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