FOREX NEWS & BLOG

Atlanta FedGDPNow moves to -2.8% from -3.7% last.

Atlanta FedGDPNow moves to -2.8% from -3.7% last.

April 3, 2025 6:24 pm |

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for GDP -2.8% from -3.7% last. Adjusting for imports and exports of gold the growth is forecast at -0.8% vs -1.4 percent. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on April 3, up from -3.7 percent on April 1. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.8 percent. After today’s and yesterday’s releases from US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth increased from 0.4 percent to 1.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 9. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Fed Vice Chair Jeffeson: No need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments

Fed Vice Chair Jeffeson: No need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments

April 3, 2025 5:36 pm |

  • No need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments

  • Current policy rate well-positioned to deal with risks, uncertainties

  • Could retain current policy restraint for longer, or ease policy, depending on inflation progress and job market

  • Policy rate is now somewhat restrictive

  • Labor market solid, well-balanced

  • Latest data shows inflation moving sideways

  • Longer-term inflation expectations remain consistent with 2% goal

  • Rise in goods inflation partly due to trade policy; drop in housing services inflation could help counter

  • Economy solid, but heightened uncertainty among consumers, businesses tied to trade policy

  • If uncertainty worsens, economic activity may be constrained

  • Negative sentiment often does not translate to slowdown in actual activity

  • Recent signs that consumer spending may be weakening

  • Anticipate some modest labor market softening this year

  • Vigilant on spillovers from federal government layoffs to other sectors

These comments are in line with ones from yesterday and last week. Are they? Will the tariffs have an impact on spending/on inflation/on growth? Most likely.

THe Fed Chair will be speaking tomorrow. What he says will be most important. See Adam’s post HERE

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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eToro Adds Polkadot and Cosmos to Crypto Staking Options as Tokens Drop 6% and 9%, Respectively

eToro Adds Polkadot and Cosmos to Crypto Staking Options as Tokens Drop 6% and 9%, Respectively

April 3, 2025 5:17 pm |

eToro expanded its staking offerings by adding
Polkadot (DOT) and Cosmos (ATOM) to its crypto staking program, promising users
new opportunities to earn passive income. According to the company’s announcement, the platform’s staking portfolio now includes popular
assets like Solana, Ethereum, and Cardano.

eToro’s latest addition comes amid heightened market
volatility caused by the recent trade tariffs announced by Donald Trump. At the time
of this publication, Polkadot (DOT) ranked #20 on CoinMarketCap with a market
valuation of $6 billion, which has been down 6% in the past.

On the other hand, Cosmos is down 2% and 9% in the
past day and week, respectively. The blockchain, which promised to simplify
blockchain technology, ranks#47 with a market cap of $1.6 billion.

The Growing Appeal of Crypto Staking

“With growing interest in crypto, we remain
committed to providing users with more opportunities to engage with digital
assets and participate in the blockchain ecosystem,” Adi Lasker Gattegno,
Director of Crypto Desk at eToro, said.

“Following the successful launch of NEAR and POL
staking on eToro in December, we’re excited to offer staking for two more
assets, allowing users to earn passive rewards easily and securely.”

eToro’s decision to incorporate Polkadot and Cosmos
into its staking options comes as demand for blockchain participation grows.
The platform has been proactive in adding new assets for users, with recent
additions including NEAR Protocol and Polygon.

The staking process allows users to lock their crypto
assets, supporting network operations such as transaction validation in
exchange for rewards.

How Staking Rewards Work

The staking rewards are structured based on the user’s
eToro Club tier, with eligible users earning between 45% and 90% of the staking
yield. eToro retains a percentage to cover the operational and technical costs
involved in securing the staking process. This system is designed to offer
users both flexibility and security.

To participate, users must reside in regions where
staking is permitted, and positions must be held for a specific duration of ‘intro days’ to qualify. Staking rewards will be updated monthly via email to give users transparency about their earnings, the company explained,

Last month, eToro announced plans to launch options trading for its non-United States users later this year. Besides that, the fintech giant also targets to to introduce new services, including securities lending, to boost the existing recurring revenue sources.

“We also plan to expand existing recurring revenue sources, such as staking, and introduce new sources such as securities lending, subscription services, new asset classes, geographies, and products,” it mentioned in the F-1 prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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EURUSD consolidates near highs. The new boundaries are reestablished.

EURUSD consolidates near highs. The new boundaries are reestablished.

April 3, 2025 5:02 pm |

The EURUSD is trading up 2.38%. That is the largest percentage gain since December 2015 when the euro rose 3.06% in a single trading day.

Technically, the price is stretching toward the highs from 2024 which reached between 1.1200 and 1.1213. The high price today has so far reached 1.1144.

Going back to 2024, I’ve outlined a swing area between 1.1001 and 1.1213 as the up-and-down range between August 19 and October 4 when the price broke to the downside. In between there is a modest swing area near 1.1100.

That is the extreme and could be the new trading range for now. If the price breaks above 1.1213, that would open the upside. ON the downside, the 1.1000 would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Nasdaq % change reaches largest decline since 2020

Nasdaq % change reaches largest decline since 2020

April 3, 2025 4:16 pm |

The NASDAQ index is now down -5.42%. That takes the percentage loss to the highest since the 2020 pandemic. In 2022 the index fell -5.16%. In June 2020, the index fell -5.27%.

At the start of the pandemic in 2020 the index fell -12.32% on March 16. That decline far outpaced any other daily laws going back to at least 2013..

So today would be the third worst day going back to the pandemic and going back to 2013 (there was a 9.43% decline on March 12, 2020. Looking at the daily chart, the move up from the October 2023 low targets the 50% midpoint at 16374.22. Below that, the low from August 5 which tested the 200 day moving average at the time reached 15708.54.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Why the US dollar is plunging

Why the US dollar is plunging

April 3, 2025 4:10 pm |

Deutsche Bank is out with a note today that’s getting attention. It highlights the drop in the US dollar across the board in the aftermath of the US tariff announcements.

They highlight that the calculation of US tariff rates is particularly problematic, something I also wrote about. This is a diplomatic way of saying ‘the clowns are running the circus’:

There is a very large disconnect between
communication in recent weeks of an in-depth policy assessment of bilateral
trade relationships with different countries versus the reality of the policy
outcome. We worry this risks lowering the policy credibility of the
administration on a forward-looking basis. The market may question the extent
to which a sufficiently structured planning process for major economic
decisions is taking place. After all, this is the biggest
trade policy shift from the US in a century

They make one other great point in that other countries can’t negotiate with this. The high numbers on countries with virtually no tariffs or barriers leave no room for negotiations. What’s the ask for a country that already has no tariffs or minimal tariffs?

Looking ahead, DB remains bearish on the dollar and is now looking at the growth implications:

We argued that a sharp
retaliatory move
higher in USD/CNY is the most material risk to a dollar bearish view.
Outside of that however, we are squarely focused on the market’s perception of
the relative
growth and fiscal policy outlook between the US and rest of the world
and broader perception of relative policy credibility. Our assessment of the
newsflow so far is dollar bearish. The policy reaction from China and
Europe in coming weeks will be critical in an ongoing assessment of this view.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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