FOREX NEWS & BLOG

Fed’s Goolsbee says strength of economy still there, but confidence almost cratering

Fed’s Goolsbee says strength of economy still there, but confidence almost cratering

April 2, 2025 12:22 am |

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in a Fox TV interview:

  • Hard data on US economy still pretty solid
  • If can get past this period of uncertainty, underlying strength of economy is still there
  • Soft data looks very different from hard data
  • Confidence is almost cratering
  • Problem of tariffs is they are a supply shock
  • Fear is if tariffs on imports jumps out of just imports and move into other costs, or people freak out and change behavior
  • People don’t want to go back to the inflationary environment of 2021, 2022

This is interesting from Goolsbee. Hard data good vs. soft data bad. This thing is, by the time its data it already out of date, right? Things are moving fast and it seems to be a struggle to pick out any news that is good for business investment – the folks with the CAPEX wallets are screaming for some certainty and its hard to come by right now.

Will April 2 bring certainty? I said earlier I doubt it, there’ll be another set of announcements to wait for soon after. This is a great trading environment, but I worry for the folks on Main Street trying to run their businesses.

Has Goolsbee ever run a business?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Bessent says Trump will announce a maximum for tariffs, countries can then bring them down

Bessent says Trump will announce a maximum for tariffs, countries can then bring them down

April 2, 2025 12:20 am |

Reports that Bessent told lawmakers today that tomorrow’s tariffs are a “cap”

  • the amounts announced tomorrow are the highest the tariffs will go
  • counties could then take steps to bring the tariffs down

At the margin this is encouraging news. If its true. I’ve no reason to doubt Bessent but Trump’s whims are what counts. The best bet might be to wait for the announcement on Wednesday (4pm US Eastern time), but that’s unlikely to cut it with traders seeking to get in front of the market. Buy risk with a trailing stop looks to be a reasonable response to this.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Tickmill Taps Erhan Beyaz as Head of Data and Analytics

Tickmill Taps Erhan Beyaz as Head of Data and Analytics

April 1, 2025 11:56 pm |

Tickmill enlisted Erhan Beyaz as the new Head of Data
and Analytics. Beyaz is an experienced industry expert who worked for notable industry brands such as Equiti Group.

Erhan Beyaz’s appointment comes as the company broadens its presence across various jurisdictions. Some of its key markets include
the UK, Cyprus, and the UAE. Beyaz, who holds a PhD in Computer Science from the University of Manchester, will lead the company’s data
analytics initiatives to better serve its global clientele.

Experienced Industry Expert

Prior to joining Tickmill, Beyaz spent four years at
Equiti Group in Cyprus, where he led Data Management efforts. According to his
LinkedIn profile, he joined the company as a Senior BI and Reporting Specialist
and later served as the Head of Data Management.

His background also includes a stint at XM as a Data
Analytics Manager. Prior to that, he was a Financial Analyst at CPM and
previously served as the Head of Financial Planning and Analysis at Levent
Group.

His deep understanding of data systems and analytics
makes him a valuable addition to the team as Tickmill continues to refine its
data-driven approach. The company’s recent leadership changes reflect its commitment to growth and innovation.

Other Recent Executive Moves at the Firm

Just last year, the firm appointed Johnny Khalil as Executive Director at Tickmill Europe in Cyprus. The company’s management is
currently led by co-founders Illimar and Ingmar Mattus.

Meanwhile, Tickmill UK Ltd, a unit of the Tickmill Group
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), posted its full-year financial report towards the end of last year, highlighting revenue of £6,641,693,
an increase from the previous year.

The company’s administrative expenses rose to £9.5 million, representing
a jump of approximately 68% year-over-year. Its operating profit was £107,188, while
the pre-tax profit for the year was £122,905. Net profit for 2023 was £77,519, a decline from £643,284 in the previous year. According to the firm, the decline resulted from a change in its financial situation, including pressure from rising costs affecting profitability.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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Markets still guessing as tariff risks escalate, warns Deutsche Bank

Markets still guessing as tariff risks escalate, warns Deutsche Bank

April 1, 2025 11:35 pm |

Deutsche Bank has cautioned that markets remain in the dark when it comes to assessing the true impact of potential U.S. tariffs. While investors are broadly pricing in 50% tariffs on Chinese goods and just under 10% on imports from other countries, the bank argues that the real consequences will hinge on what happens next.

  • market impact won’t just depend on the size of the tariffs
  • will be shaped by how countries respond—through retaliation, fiscal measures, tax changes or even currency moves like a yuan devaluation

That warning looks increasingly timely. Just yesterday, news broke that China, Japan and South Korea are reportedly preparing a coordinated response to any future U.S. tariff actions. A joint retaliation effort by Asia’s three largest economies would mark a significant escalation in global trade tensions, potentially fuelling market volatility and complicating central bank policy paths.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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US Treasury has floated a new tariff option for Trump to consider!

US Treasury has floated a new tariff option for Trump to consider!

April 1, 2025 10:45 pm |

The Wall Street Journal report that the US Treasury has prepared another option for Trump to consider:

  • across the board tariff increase
  • on a subset of nations
  • would not be as high as 20%

The Journal cite “people with knowledge of the plans” for the new info.

Pardon my surprise, but a totally new plan being floated this close to the announcement is seat-of-the-pants stuff.

I know there is intense focus on “April 2!!!” but what’s the betting that within days we’ll get a whole new set of tariff ideas being pumped out with an announcement set for a few more days in the future. Rinse, repeat after that too.

As we all know death and taxes are the only certainties. Settling on a tariff plan sure ain’t.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline large crude oil build vs. draw expected

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline large crude oil build vs. draw expected

April 1, 2025 10:24 pm |

Via oilprice.com:

That headline is build in stocks is quite something, especially given a draw was expected.

Expectations I had seen centred on:

  • Headline crude -2.1mn barrels
  • Distillates -1.0 mn bbls
  • Gasoline -1.7 mn

—

This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

  • It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
  • The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

  • Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
  • Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
  • the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Another round of tariff fears fade

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Another round of tariff fears fade

April 1, 2025 10:10 pm |

Markets:

  • WTI crude oil down 28-cents to $71.18
  • US 10-year yields down 7.4 bps to 4.17%
  • S&P 500 up 0.4%
  • Gold down $6 to 3117
  • CAD leads, EUR lags

The mood was challenged early in the day on a Washington Post report saying the White House was considering a broad, 20% tariff. That had stock futures lower, Treasury yields down 10 bps across the curve and USD/JPY challenging 149.00. Economic data wasn’t much help as the ISM manufacturing numbers slid and prices paid were higher. JOLTS also edged lower.

The turn around came on the same kind of dip buying we saw yesterday but there was also a CNBC report highlighting that Trump was least likely to select the 20% option among three main proposals that he is considering. The report also said the US was working towards country-by-country rates. That was enough to reverse the drop in equities, though it was back-and-forth until late.

Strong gains were posted by the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso in a sign of optimism about tariffs. USD/CAD fell 80 pips on the day to 1.4301 and fell more than a full cent from early US trade.

Wednesday is a big day for markets so we will be strapped in and looking for hints ahead of the 4 pm ET announcement.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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