FOREX NEWS & BLOG

China’s long new year holiday is coming up, PBOC beginning to inject funds

China’s long new year holiday is coming up, PBOC beginning to inject funds

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29.

The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4.

During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for 16 days, culminating with the Lantern Festival on February 12.

With this long holiday comes a large demand for cash (more on this below if you want it).

The People’s Bank of China is in preparation mode, injecting funds today for 14 days rather than the usual 7 days:

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injects a large amount of funds into the financial system before the Lunar New Year mainly to address seasonal liquidity demands. Here’s why:

1. Increased Cash Demand

  • The Lunar New Year is the biggest holiday in China, and people withdraw large amounts of cash for travel, gifts, and traditional red envelope (红包, hóngbāo) giving.
  • This leads to a significant outflow of cash from banks, reducing liquidity in the financial system.

2. Corporate Demand for Funds

  • Many companies pay year-end bonuses to employees before the holiday, increasing cash demand.
  • Businesses also need extra funds to settle accounts, repay loans, and make advance payments before the long break.

3. Bank Liquidity Tightening

  • The increased cash withdrawals and corporate payments tighten liquidity in the banking sector.
  • Banks require more short-term funds to maintain stable operations and lending activities.

4. Preventing Volatility in Financial Markets

  • If liquidity dries up too much, interbank lending rates (e.g., SHIBOR) can spike, affecting the stability of financial markets.
  • The PBOC’s fund injections help stabilize interest rates and ensure smooth market functioning.

5. Supporting Economic Growth & Confidence

  • The Lunar New Year is a major period of consumer spending and economic activity.
  • Providing ample liquidity ensures banks can continue lending to businesses and individuals, supporting overall economic momentum.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Japan PM Ishiba will speak this week – to highlight pay hikes

Japan PM Ishiba will speak this week – to highlight pay hikes

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will emphasize strong wage growth surpassing inflation as a key element of his economic revival strategy in an upcoming policy speech to parliament, according to government sources.

Ishiba plans to challenge Japan’s historically low wage growth expectations and encourage businesses to continue the pay raise momentum seen last year. His speech, scheduled for Friday’s opening of the 150-day Diet session, will also highlight efforts to decentralize the economy and unlock regional potential.

Since taking office in October, Ishiba has made regional revitalization a priority ahead of this summer’s House of Councillors election. In parliament, he will seek bipartisan cooperation, as his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition lack a majority in the House of Representatives, making opposition support crucial for passing legislation.

Despite record wage increases last year, rising prices continue to strain household budgets. To address this, Ishiba will commit to efforts to raise the national minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($10) per hour by the end of this decade, up from the current level of just over 1,000 yen.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2642)

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2642)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

  • Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
  • The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
  • Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

The previous close was 7.2620

The People’s Bank of China injects 1157bn yuan via 14-day reverse repos in open market operations

  • the rate on the 14-dayers is 1.65%
  • 959bn yuan mature today
  • net injection is 198bn yuan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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