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Morgan Stanley MUFG: U.S. tariffs pose risk to Japan’s economy

Morgan Stanley MUFG: U.S. tariffs pose risk to Japan’s economy

Economists at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities warn that the new U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports could put downward pressure on Japan’s economy, particularly if they remain in place for an extended period. Trump has notified Japan of a 25% tariff effective August 1 — up from 24% in April — if no new trade deal is reached.

The firm notes that sustained high tariffs would likely hurt Japanese exports and dampen capital investment. However, they also point to the possibility of new fiscal stimulus, with a support package potentially unveiled in autumn during an extraordinary session of Japan’s Diet following the Upper House election.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump tariff uncertainty extends, weighs on USD, JPY

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump tariff uncertainty extends, weighs on USD, JPY

Trump tariff headlines continued to shift during the session. The latest twist: the President said his tariff letters are “subject to negotiations” and that the new August 1 deadline is “not 100%.” This adds a fresh layer of uncertainty — giving countries more time to strike deals, but also prolonging unpredictability. So far, tariff deadlines have moved from April 9 to July 9 to August 1, and now appear fluid once again.

The U.S. dollar weakened broadly following the delay announcement, except against the yen. Currencies such as the euro, AUD, GBP, NZD, and CAD all gained ground.

However, the yen underperformed after Trump indicated Japan would be hit with a 25% tariff (albeit not until August 1 … or maybe later), sending USD/JPY to a two-week high and GBP/JPY to its highest level in eight months. The Bank of Japan faces a growing challenge, trying to normalise monetary policy amid slowing growth, with the threat of steep U.S. tariffs casting a shadow over Japan’s export-reliant economy.

From Australia, business confidence data surprised to the upside, with business conditions hitting their highest level since March 2024. Gains were broad-based across sales, profitability, and employment, while confidence rose for a third consecutive month.

Attention now turns to the RBA policy decision, due at 0430 GMT / 0030 US Eastern time. Markets are pricing in a greater than 90% chance of a 25bps rate cut, though the central bank may strike a less dovish tone, reflecting recent solid household spending data and today’s upbeat business survey.

In geopolitics, Trump said: “We are going to have to send more weapons to Ukraine. Defensive weapons. They have to defend themselves.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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PBoC moves to expand Offshore Bond access for Chinese Investors

PBoC moves to expand Offshore Bond access for Chinese Investors

China’s central bank announced plans to further open its capital markets by supporting more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds, as part of broader efforts to liberalise financial flows.

Earlier re this:

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said it will expand the Bond Connect program to include a wider range of domestic institutions, such as brokers, mutual funds, wealth managers, and insurers. The central bank also pledged to increase the quota under the Swap Connect scheme, allowing more flexible hedging and interest rate swap access.

The announcement follows earlier reports that authorities are considering doubling the quota of the Southbound Bond Connect program to the equivalent of USD 139 billion — a move that would mark a significant step in easing capital controls and promoting two-way market access.

The measures align with Beijing’s broader goal of enhancing the global role of the yuan, while also diversifying investment channels for domestic institutions.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Japan finmin Kato: no current plans for specific foreign-exchange discussions with Bessent

Japan finmin Kato: no current plans for specific foreign-exchange discussions with Bessent

Japan finmin Kato:

  • Will work on negotiations with us on tariffs
  • Not decided whether to attend G20 meetings in South Africa
  • Expect us stance to change as we continue trade negotiations
  • Will take necessary steps to help industries cope with US tariffs while communicating with other agencies
  • Have deepened understanding with Bessent on forex, will continue close coordination
  • no current plans for specific foreign-exchange discussions with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Kato enjoys dropping Bessent’s name into his remarks, it usually causes a scramble to unwind market positioining in the yen.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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