FOREX NEWS & BLOG

How have interest rates expectations changed after the tariffs announcement?

How have interest rates expectations changed after the tariffs announcement?

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 82 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 70 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 60 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 57 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 83 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 72 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 16 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 25 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We can see that the market increased the easing bets for all the major central banks on expected slowdown in the global economy. As it’s usually the case, the CHF and JPY got a boost across the board on risk-off flows despite the market scaling back rate hikes expectations for the BoJ and increasing rate cuts expectations for the SNB.

The US Dollar is the big loser here as the easing bets for the Fed get more aggressive and the markets might think that the longer they wait, the higher the probability that the rate cuts will have to be bigger to combat a potential hard landing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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If You Get This Text from ASIC, Delete It Immediately!

If You Get This Text from ASIC, Delete It Immediately!

The
Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has issued an urgent
warning about scammers impersonating the regulator through fraudulent text
messages, aiming to steal personal and financial information from unsuspecting
victims.

ASIC Warns of Text Message
Scams Using Fraudulent Method

The
scammers are using “alpha tags” – alphanumeric sender identification
labels that display “ASIC” instead of a phone number as the message
sender, creating an illusion of legitimacy that has already targeted numerous
Australians.

“ASIC
does not communicate using text messages for any official business,” the
regulator emphasized in its warning. This includes requests for personal
details, business name renewals, confirmation of misconduct reports, investment
assistance, or fee payments.

The
deceptive practice comes amid a rising wave of government impersonation scams
that have become increasingly sophisticated in recent months. Alpha tags, while
legitimate tools for organizations to identify themselves in text
communications, provide scammers with a powerful method to build false trust
with potential victims.

When people
see “ASIC” as the sender rather than an unknown number, they’re more likely to
engage with the message. However, this false sense of security is exactly what
scammers are banking on.

Each week ASIC
blocks approximately 130 suspicious websites
, having removed over 10,000 in
total. Scammers are therefore trying other tactics, directly impersonating
trusted public institutions.

Unveiling Smishing

The
practice in question is
known as “smishing,” a term for SMS phishing
. This issue is especially
widespread in the cryptocurrency sector, where users of major exchanges receive
fake messages urging them to take action on their accounts. Interestingly,
these fraudulent texts can blend in with
legitimate ones sent by the exchanges, as phones may display the sender as
“Binance” or “Coinbase.”

Per the “Scam Prevention Survey” conducted by Finance Magnates and FXStreet,
close to 22% of participants reported that SMS scams are among the most
frequent they encounter, outpacing scams seen on X.

How to Protect Yourself?

The
regulator advises Australians to be vigilant and follow several protective
measures. These include independently verifying any message sender before
responding, avoiding clicking on links in unsolicited messages, enabling
multi-factor authentication on accounts, and staying informed about emerging
scam tactics.

For those
who believe they’ve been targeted, ASIC recommends immediate action: stop all
communication with the scammer, contact financial institutions to halt any
transactions, and report the incident to both the impersonated organization and
Scamwatch.

The
Australian Communications and Media Authority is developing an SMS Sender ID
Register to help protect alpha tags from impersonation, though this solution
isn’t expected to launch until December 15, 2025.

Until then,
ASIC urges Australians to remember the “stop, check, protect”
approach when receiving suspicious messages – don’t engage, verify
independently, and take protective action if something feels wrong.

Recovery Scam

This marks
yet another instance of individuals attempting to impersonate ASIC, following
a mid-March warning from the Australian regulator
. At that time, ASIC
cautioned that fraudsters posing as agency officials were contacting potential
victims and requesting “to provide a payment to enable funds or assets to be
released.”

The alert
was issued after reports surfaced of consumers receiving emails and phone calls
from scammers pretending to be regulatory officials. ASIC classified these
schemes as “recovery scams.”

“ASIC will
never ask for a payment in any currency to enable funds or assets to be
released,” the regulator added. “ASIC will also not require or accept payments
in digital or crypto assets (including stablecoins), whether that is to or from
your crypto asset wallet or to an account at a digital asset exchange.”

While ASIC
has only recently addressed this wave of impersonation attempts, the Cyprus
Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) has
been tackling a similar problem for years.

CySEC has
repeatedly warned the public about individuals falsely claiming to represent
its staff. In many cases, these impostors target vulnerable consumers on
platforms like Trustpilot, offering to recover funds from defunct services in
exchange for upfront payments.

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

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Spotware Opens Malaysia Office, Hires New Exec to Capitalize on Asian Trading Boom

Spotware Opens Malaysia Office, Hires New Exec to Capitalize on Asian Trading Boom

Trading
technology provider Spotware has opened a new office in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,
expanding its operations in the Asian financial markets. The developer of the
popular cTrader trading platforms has established a team focused on business
development, sales, and marketing to service brokers, proprietary trading
firms, and traders throughout the region.

Spotware Establishes
Malaysia Office in Asian Expansion

The
expansion comes as Malaysia continues to emerge as an attractive hub for retail
brokerage operations, positioned strategically near Singapore’s established
financial center.

“By
establishing a strong presence in the Asian region, we’re not only bringing our
cutting-edge cTrader technology closer to brokers, prop firms and traders but
also strengthening our ability to deliver localized support and tailored
solutions,” said Ilia Iarovitcyn, CEO of Spotware.

According
to the press release sent to Finance Magnates, the Kuala Lumpur office
will provide client engagement, training, and technical support services to
help Asian financial firms integrate cTrader’s platform.

New Office and New Commercial Director

Moreover, Michael
Quirk, who has previously worked for companies such as ForexVox, SquaredPro, X
Open Hub, and Saxo, has been appointed as Commercial Director to lead the new
office.

“The
Asian market holds immense potential and we are eager to contribute to its
growth by providing cutting-edge trading technology and localized
support,” Quirk said. “With cTrader, we aim to redefine the trading
landscape for CFD brokers and prop trading firms in the region.”

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

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Trump Imposes Sweeping Tariffs. Forecast as of 03.04.2025

Trump Imposes Sweeping Tariffs. Forecast as of 03.04.2025

The import duties announced by Donald Trump were larger than anticipated. In response, many countries have pledged to respond, but retaliation may only add to the pain. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan for the EURUSD pair. Major Takeaways The US will impose universal tariffs of 10%. Duties against Europe, China, and Japan have been much higher. The White House warns those who want to retaliate. Long trades on the EURUSD pair can be opened with targets at 1.105 and 1.117. Weekly US Dollar Fundamental Forecast The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which he himself called “Discounted… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance

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No love for the dollar as traders continue to digest Trump’s tariffs

No love for the dollar as traders continue to digest Trump’s tariffs

The pair is now up to its highest levels since early October as it breaks the November and March highs. That puts the 1.1000 level in contention as the dollar is slumping across the board currently. As much as Trump’s tariffs are supposedly meant to squeeze other countries, there is growing fear that it is also set to bring the US economy to a recession.

The tariffs announced were certainly much steeper than expected, especially with regards to China, and that risks sending the global economy into a spiral. In any case, there is still a lot of uncertainty up in the air and this is but the early moves we’re seeing so far. There’s going to be many more twists and turns as we sort out the mess.

But for now, the dollar is an early casualty with USD/JPY also down 1.4% to near 147.00 currently. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up 0.8% to 1.3113 while USD/CAD is also marked down by 0.3% to 1.4190 at the moment.

Even the antipodes have recovered losses to trade higher against the greenback. AUD/USD was down to around 0.6230 in Asia trading but is now back up near flat levels at 0.6300.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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European stocks see red across the board as Trump tariffs weigh

European stocks see red across the board as Trump tariffs weigh

  • Eurostoxx -2.1%
  • Germany DAX -2.2%
  • France CAC 40 -2.1%
  • UK FTSE -1.2%
  • Spain IBEX -1.2%
  • Italy FTSE MIB -1.7%

It’s looking rough out there for stocks with US futures also being hammered down. S&P 500 futures are lower by 3.1% as tech shares are leading the declines there. Nasdaq futures are down 3.5% currently. The worst part for risk trades is that the real uncertainty is only beginning with regards to Trump’s tariffs. There’s still so many questions up in the air, not least with how other countries are going to retaliate in the days/weeks ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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