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FOREX NEWS & BLOG
Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading
- German DAX futures +0.2%
- UK FTSE futures +0.1%
This follows the positive murmurs from US-China relations since overnight, with Trump touting a vague meeting with China alongside reports of tariff exemptions being worked out. S&P 500 futures are also marked higher as such, up 0.5% on the day. In turn, the dollar is catching a bid across the board with USD/JPY up 0.8% to 143.75 and EUR/USD down 0.6% to 1.1325 currently.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
China Politburo reaffirms to cut RRR and interest rates in a timely manner
- To maintain abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy
- Will create structural monetary policy tolls and new policy-based instruments to expand consumption
- Will focus on stabilising employment, market expectations
- Necessary to increase income of low and middle-income groups
- Will accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade
- Necessary to continuously improve policy toolbox to stabilise employment, economy
- Will implement established policies early
- To introduce reserve policies in a timely manner according to changes in the situation
- Will continue to make efforts to prevent and resolve risks in key areas
- Will speed up to implement more proactive, effective macro policies
This is the usual volley of remarks from Beijing, so it’s nothing new really. But in a time like this, it can be read that they are continuing to keep their focus on improving their domestic situation amid hunkering down. As a reminder though, China’s top legislature will be meeting on 27-30 April next and that might offer up more interesting comments on the economy.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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Trump 2028 – A Terrifying Trial Balloon for Business
Trump may run for 2028, but businesses are dreading the tariffs,
merchandising, and legal chaos that would come with it.
Trump 2028?
In a move that’s surely meant to inspire equal parts terror and
confusion, Donald Trump’s online store
recently began selling “Trump 2028” merch, fueling rumors that the former
president is testing the waters for yet another run.
Now, you might be thinking, “He’s already run twice, why not go for
round three?” Well, it’s illegal. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution
limits presidents to two terms. But that hasn’t stopped Trump from drumming up
merchandise (and headlines), suggesting that he’s either testing a legal
loophole or gearing up for an all-out chaos campaign that would make his
previous two runs look tame.
Business owners and global markets, however, seem less than thrilled by
this new chapter of Trump’s political antics. If there’s one thing businesses
learned during Trump’s time in office, it’s that “business as usual” takes a
backseat when tariffs are in play and political stunts steal the show. So,
while some may snicker at the absurdity of the “Trump 2028” hat, others are
wondering if they should start hoarding goods before another round of
tariff-fueled chaos erupts.
The Tariff Terrors
Remember 2018? Of course, you do. That’s when Trump unleashed a trade
war that sent ripples through global markets, especially for businesses reliant
on international supply chains. The U.S.-China trade dispute, which was sparked
by Trump’s tariffs on everything from steel to electronics, caused chaos in the
global economy. Companies saw their bottom lines take a hit as costs soared and
supply chains were disrupted. Well, guess what? If Trump runs in 2028, we might
be looking at a repeat of that economic headache.
Already, businesses are dealing with a new round of tariffs that would
further increase costs on imported goods, potentially leading to higher prices
for consumers and more uncertainty for companies. And if he somehow manages to
make a third term a reality (though highly unlikely), the uncertainty would
only grow. Think of it as a prolonged nightmare that won’t end.
Monetize Everything
While his tariffs are wreaking havoc on international trade, Trump’s
ability to monetize his name is nothing short of impressive. And now, it seems
he’s preparing to make a killing off a potential 2028 campaign—that is unlikely
to ever happen. It’s not just the hats. Trump’s online store is chock-full of
memorabilia, including T-shirts, mugs, and other paraphernalia, all emblazoned
with the “2028” logo. For a man who’s practically turned branding into an art
form, this is just the latest step in a career that’s as much about selling
merchandise as it is about politics.
https://t.co/9ANjNT4QGt pic.twitter.com/6y5nDVVMI1
— Eric Trump (@EricTrump) April 24, 2025
Hats are just one element of Trump’s retail ambitions, as I discovered
in “From
Bitcoin to Bibles”. It’s a disturbing read.
Trump’s ability to generate revenue off his name and his political
persona is well-known. But let’s not forget, this is also a distraction. As
businesses reel from just the hint of yet another chaotic presidency, the
merchandising serves as a constant reminder that Trump is never too far from a
quick buck. This time, however, it’s not just about putting his face on a tie
or a hat. It’s about an entire industry of political gear designed to fuel
another campaign and keep the merchandise machine running.
An Unconstitutional Bid?
The big question: Could Trump actually run for a third term? The
answer, as it stands, is a resounding no. The 22nd Amendment clearly
states that a person can only serve two terms as president. But that’s
never really stopped Trump from bending, twisting, or outright ignoring laws
when it suits him. So, even though the 2028 campaign is currently just a “trial
balloon,” the thought of Trump attempting to circumvent the Constitution has
businesses—and legal experts—on edge.
OBAMA 2028 is trending in response to Trump 2028 Merch. Drop a 💙 if you would vote for @BarackObama again! pic.twitter.com/u6ycq8PmBG
— DonkConnects ♻️™ (@donkoclock) April 24, 2025
While it seems highly unlikely that Trump could pull off a third term,
the chaos his potential candidacy brings is enough to cause widespread panic.
From a legal perspective, it would be a nightmare for the courts, which would
have to sort through the mess of a third-term bid. For businesses, however, the
real issue is the uncertainty. No one really knows what Trump would do if he
returned to office. Would he push for more tax cuts for the rich? More tariffs?
It’s the instability that kills.
The Bottom Line
Trump’s potential third run—however unlikely it may be—has already
begun to send shockwaves through businesses, particularly those that rely on
international trade. The focus on tariffs and Trump’s general unpredictability
are causing anxiety. Even if the “Trump 2028” hats don’t end up being the
precursor to an actual run, the fear of what his return could bring is very
real. Buckle up, because if history is any indicator, things could very well get
wild.
For more stories around the edge of finance, visit our Trending section.
This article was written by Louis Parks at www.financemagnates.com.
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USD/CHF maintains position above 0.8300 due to US-China trade optimism
USD/CHF recovered its previous session losses and is trading around 0.8320 during the Asian session on Friday.
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Trump vs. Powell: What the Fed Clash Means for the US Dollar
Understand the escalating conflict between Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Learn how threats to Federal Reserve independence impact the U.S. dollar.
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UK Retail Sales jump 0.4% MoM in March vs. -0.4% expected
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales jumped 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in March after advancing 0.7% in February, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets expected a 0.4% drop in the reported month.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
The Dollar Just Remembered the Fed Exists. Forecast as of 25.04.2025
In the past, the “dovish” rhetoric of Fed officials would have sunk the U.S. dollar. Now, the greenback is rising to the surface, thanks to the reaction of stock indices. Let’s discuss it and make a trading plan for EURUSD. Major Takeaways The dollar is reacting to the movement of U.S. stock indices. The Fed will resume a cycle of monetary expansion. The White House maintains a conciliatory tone. A rebound of EUR/USD from 1.1285 will be a reason to buy. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Donald Trump blinked, and investors liked it, and what’s good for U.S. stock indices is… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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UK March retail sales +0.4% vs -0.4% m/m expected
- Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7%
- Retail sales +2.6% vs +1.8% y/y expected
- Prior +2.2%
- Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.5% vs -0.4% m/m expected
- Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7%
- Retail sales ex autos, fuel +3.3% vs +2.2% y/y expected
- Prior +2.2%; revised to +1.8%
That’s a decent beat on estimates, though it comes with a bit of a minor downside revision to the February numbers. Of note, better weather conditions helped to bolster sales in clothing and outdoor retailers while supermarkets reported a decline in sales on the month. ONS estimates that retail sales should contribute 0.08% to GDP in Q1 at the balance. As for the overall picture, UK retail sales volumes are still down by 0.3% compared to their pre-pandemic levels i.e. February 2020.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Gold runs into some near-term consolidation after backing away from $3,500
Amid fears of the tariffs war getting worse, gold surged higher earlier in the week and briefly clipped the $3,500 mark. Some profit-taking there and hopeful optimism on US-China relations then led to a retreat, which accelerated to a drop below $3,300 on Wednesday during US trading. But as the dust settles a bit, we’re seeing some near-term consolidation in price action at the moment:
As things stand, price is stuck in between its key hourly moving averages. The 100-hour moving average (red line) is helping to limit upside movement while the 200-hour moving average (blue line) is limiting downside movement. That keeps a more neutral near-term bias in gold until one of the above levels give way.
As much as there is an optimistic bounce in risk and the dollar in the past two days, there is still a large amount of uncertainty yet to be resolved in the whole tariffs war. Sure, there are some positive murmurs regarding US-China relations. But are they material enough to lead to stronger de-escalation? Not quite yet.
That might be what is keeping gold buyers interested. Not to mention, strong bids during Asia timing for the most part this week.
In the bigger picture, the latest setback hardly puts a dent in the bullish run in gold so far this year. The precious metal is still up 26% year-to-date. And unless Trump is willing to take a step back in the tariffs war, the underlying demand for gold will be hard to put down for now.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.84 per barrel, up from Thursday’s close at $62.61.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $65.65 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $65.88.
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US stocks fill the gap for a buying opportunity before markets soar
Emini S&P June made a low for the day exactly at the buying opportunity at 5377/5340.
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