The quarterly CPI data is viewed as the official inflation rate. The monthly reading is a stopgap, used as an incomplete guide.
The headline y/y is expected to dip slightly under the upper end of the 2 to 3% Reserve Bank of Australia target band. There are plenty of caveats on this, the main being that the dip is expected to be the result of government subsidies cost-of-living relief measures. Still, the headline will be read as encouraging even if it expected to drift back up again when the subsidies roll off in the readings ahead.
The underlying rate of inflation, the ‘core’ trimmed mean, is expected to remain above the top of the band.
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