FOREX NEWS & BLOG

• NASDAQ closes the day higher and closes at record levels each day this week
• What key events the releases are scheduled for next week’s trading?
• California Gov. Newson proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California
• Fed’s Goolsbee: Need some resolution on tariffs ot understand impact on inflation
• Trump signs GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for Stablecoins)
• What earnings are on the calendar for next week?
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -2 to 422
• FT: Trump is pushing for 15 – 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods. EURUSD moves lower.
• Major European indices are closing mixed to end the week
• Fed Goolsbee: A little wary as latest CPI shows tariffs pushing up goods inflation
• IMF: Since April, economic indicators reflect a complex backdrop shaped by trade tension
• University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) for July 61.8 versus 61.5 estimate
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remains unchanged at 2.4%
• If the Fed were to cut rates to 1% as Trump demands, long term rates would actually rise
• US housing starts 1.321M vs 1.300M estimate
• Fed’s Waller: If the president asked me to do the Fed chair job, I’d say yes
• Fed’s Waller: Private sector is not doing as well as it seems
• US Bessent on Japan: A trade deal remains in the ‘realm of possibility’
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gets a case of the Waller hangover
• Trump continues to lambast “too late” Powell

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a trade deal with Japan remains in the “realm of possibility,” but emphasized that securing a good deal is more important than rushing one. He indicated that negotiations are ongoing and that the outcome of Japan’s upcoming election could be pivotal to reaching an agreement. Hope springs eternal, but Japan was insulted by the tariff letter.

Also on tariffs, the Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing for a 15–20% minimum tariff on all EU goods, down from the previously floated 30% in “the letter.” He also refuses to reduce the existing 25% tariff on EU cars and is considering a reciprocal tariff exceeding 10%, even if a deal is reached. Trump has rejected a zero-tariff framework, insisting that access to the U.S. market should carry a baseline tax, effectively between 10% and 20%, while keeping U.S. exports tariff-free. The EURUSD moved lower on the headlines, and the EU trade commissioner reportedly gave a downbeat readout of recent Washington talks. What we can say is the markets are becoming comfortable (the Nasdaq and S&P traded at new records), but with August 1st approaching, the rubber will meet the road soon and the impact on inflation, stocks, bonds and FX could heat up.

The USD is closing next/mostly lower. Looking at the greenback’s change versus the major currencies:

• EUR -0.26%
• JPY +0.09%
• GBP +0.06%
• CHF -0.41%
• CAD -0.16%
• AUD -0.31%
• NZD -0.49%

For the trading week, despite the decline versus most currencies today, the USD was higher vs all the major currencies as concerns about lower growth overseas and higher inflation supported the greenback:

• EUR +0.52%
• JPY +0.915
• GBP +0.55%
• CHF +0.66%
• CAD +0.33%
• AUD +1.00%
• NZD +0.71%

The Fed will go into quiet mode over the next week and a half until the rate decision on July 30. Today, Fed’s Goolsbee and Waller spoke. Waller was quite emphatic on Thursday evening sayinng he still supports a 25bps rate cut in July, citing rising downside risks and weakening labor market conditions. He stressed that the Fed should not wait for job losses to act, warning that delayed easing could require more aggressive cuts later. Waller sees GDP growth near 1% and believes policy should move closer to neutral.

He noted that private hiring is near stall speed, and the labor market is “on the edge.” While tariffs may raise inflation 0.75–1% in the short term, he views them as a temporary shock, with core inflation close to 2% absent the tariff effects. A July cut would give the Fed space to pause for a few meetings, he said.

Waller also said there’s uncertainty around the neutral Fed funds rate, and 3% may still reflect loose conditions. He confirmed no contact with the Trump team about a potential Fed Chair role. On QT, he sees limited interest in selling MBS and expects the balance sheet runoff to remain slow. He also said stablecoins are not a threat but introduce useful competition in payments. Lastly, he emphasized that data should guide the pace of future cuts, and there’s “nothing wrong with an insurance cut.”

Fed’s Goolsbee sounded like he might want to cut but was dissuaded by the uncertainty on inflation from tariffs. Goolsbee expressed caution ahead of the Fed’s blackout period, noting that the latest CPI data shows tariffs are pushing up goods inflation. He emphasized the need for clarity on the scope and timeline of tariffs, warning that the current “drip-drip” rollout prevents treating them as a one-time price shock. Goolsbee also stated that uncertainty around inflation and trade policy could delay rate cuts, though he acknowledged that it’s realistic for rates to move lower over the next year if conditions stabilize. He added that more months of consistent inflation data would make him more confident in cutting rates and voiced concern over challenges to central bank independence.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are closing mixed for the week with the threat that Chairman Powell would be fired causing volatility and a shift higher in the yield curve. The 2-year yield is closing the week down -2.2 basis points, while the 30 year bond is closing the week six basis points.

Looking at the closing levels:

• 2-year yield 3.871%, -4.6 basis points. For the week yields are down -2.2 basis points after being up as much as 7 basis points.
• 5-year yield 3.948, -5.8 basis points. For the week, yields are down -3.2 basis points after being up as much as 7.4 basis points.
• 10-year yield 4.419%, -4.3 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 0.3 basis points after being up as high as 7.8 basis points.
• 30-year yield 4.990%, -2.3 basis points. For the week, yield is up 3.6 basis points after being up as much as 12.1 basis points

Next week will be a key week for earnings with Tesla and Alphabet, leading the releases. Below is a list of the major releases before and after market close:

• Monday 7/21 – Before Open: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ),

• Monday 7/21 – After Close: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

• Tuesday 7/22 – Before Open: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Coca‑Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), General Motors (GM), D.R. Horton (DHI), Northrop Grumman

• Tuesday 7/22 – After Close: Texas Instruments (TXN), SAP (SE), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One (COF)

• Wednesday 7/23 – Before Open: AT&T (T), GE Vernova (GEV), Freeport‑McMoRan (FCX), AT&T, General Dynamics

• Wednesday 7/23 – After Close: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), ServiceNow (NOW), IBM (IBM), Chipotle (CMG)

• Thursday 7/24 – Before Open: American Airlines (AAL), Nokia (NOK), Dow (DOW), Southwest (LUV), Honeywell (HON)

• Thursday 7/24 – After Close: Intel (INTC)

• Friday 7/25 – Before Open: Centene (CNC)

On the economic calendar, the ECB rate decision will be the highlight. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. Other than that, regional flash PMI indices will be released.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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The major European indices are ending the week with mixed results:

• German DAX, -0.35%
• France’s CAC, +0.01%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.22%
• Spain’s Ibex -0.04%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.46%.

For the trading week,:

• German DAX +0.14%
• France’s CAC -0.08%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.57%
• Spain’s Ibex, -0.14%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.58%

Next week will have the clock ticking to the August 1 deadline for tariffs. Tariff levels are set to rise to 30%. Even if they have some agreement, I would think that 10% would probably be the absolute best, and that would come with no tariffs from the EU. The tariff level might still be higher than that.

Trump is loving collecting tariff money, and seems to be putting eggs in the basket that other inflation will come down

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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The FT is now reporting that Pres. Trump is pushing for a 15 – 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods. The tariff rate as set by “the letter” had pinned the rate at 30%.

• He also rejects reducing the 25% sectorial duty on EU cars.
• The administration is also looking at a reciprocal tariff rate that exceeds 10%, even if a deal is reached.
• EU trade Commissioner gave a downbeat assessment of his recent talks in Washington to EU ambassadors on Friday

As mentioned, Trump is not interested in 0% tariffs. He has alluded that there is a tax for having access to the US (rightly or wrongly). That tax is 10% to 20% WITH no tariffs on US exports (have your cake and eat it too).

He will cite national security as his power to invoke. He also sees tariffs as a way to claw back.

EU companies would not be tariffs on goods manufactured and sold in the US.

Like it or don’t like it, it is what he is doing.

The EURUSD has moved lower to test the 100-hour MA. That came after the test of the 200 hour MA and swing area between 1.1663 and 1.1691 stalled the rally (see earlier post here outlining the key barometer for buyers and sellers).

A move below the 100-hour MA would have the low of another swing area at 1.1614 and then will look toward 1.1563 – 1.1578 followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May low. That level comes in at 1.15372.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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