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GBP/USD Price Forecast 21th November 2024
Strategy: Flip 55 The Flip 55 is a trend-following strategy. This straight forward approach utilizes 2 moving averages has undergone extensive backtesting by our team, demonstrating a winning ratio between 70% and 80%. Recommended Timeframe This strategy is adaptable to various timeframes, including H1, H4, and Daily. Although it can be applied to timeframes lower […]
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Gold Technical Analysis – New highs as rate cuts repricing pauses
Fundamental
Overview
Gold continues to make new
highs as the correction from the repricing of the rate cuts ended last week. In
fact, if you recall, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a
less dovish Powell, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three
rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This is generally a signal
that the market is fine with the pricing, and we would need stronger reasons to
price out the remaining rate cuts.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by a
repricing in rate cuts expectations.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to push into new highs as it broke through key
technical resistances and the buyers kept on piling in. The natural target is
of course a new all-time high. The sellers will need to see the price falling
back below the major trendline
to gain conviction and position for a drop into the next major trendline around
the 2400 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the key technical breaks first with the resistance
zone around the 2600 level and then with the downward trendline. We now have a
minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will
likely lean on it to keep targeting new highs, while the sellers will look for
a break lower to position for a break below the major trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice support zone around the 2640 level where we can also
find the trendline for confluence.
There’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce,
while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the
week with the US PMIs.
See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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EUR/AUD Price Forecast 18th November 2024
Strategy: Flip 55 The Flip 55 is a trend-following strategy. This straight forward approach utilizes 2 moving averages has undergone extensive backtesting by our team, demonstrating a winning ratio between 70% and 80%. Recommended Timeframe This strategy is adaptable to various timeframes, including H1, H4, and Daily. Although it can be applied to timeframes lower […]
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Bitwise Aims for Spot Solana ETF: Registers a Trust in Delaware
Bitwise, a digital asset management firm known for its spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, is now targeting a spot Solana ETF. It has registered a statutory trust for this purpose in Delaware, as first reported by Cointelegraph. However, the company has not yet filed an S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The Race for Altcoin ETFs
Recently, Bitwise registered a similar trust for a spot XRP ETF and filed the S-1 form with the regulator a day later. However, a decision on that filing is still pending.
Bitwise is not the first to express interest in a spot Solana ETF. VanEck and Canary Capital have already submitted 19b-4 filings and S-1 registration statements with the US securities regulator. Additionally, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) had previously included 21Shares as a potential issuer for a spot Solana ETF, but 21Shares has not yet submitted any regulatory filings.
The S-1 forms, submitted by the issuer, detail the product, while the 19b-4 forms, submitted by the listing exchange, outline conditions and amend listing rules for a new product. Both submissions require SEC approval for the listing and trading of the ETF.
Fourth Largest Cryptocurrency
Solana is currently the fourth largest cryptocurrency, boasting a market capitalisation of $113.5 billion. It was one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in the latest bull cycle, tripling its value over the past year.
OK guys, we need to talk about Solana.We all know it’s one of the worst chains out there, but they did one thing right.They captured retail like no other chain in this cycle. Let me explain how.Competitors like Ethereum failed at it spectacularly and paid a heavy price.… pic.twitter.com/D85e9BHhiY
— Duo Nine ⚡ YCC (@DU09BTC) November 18, 2024
Bitwise registered its spot Solana ETF trust yesterday (Wednesday) through the State of Delaware’s Division of Corporations website. The trust lists CSC Delaware Trust Company as the registered agent but does not specify the exchange on which the ETF may be listed.
Currently, Bitwise has two active exchange-listed crypto products: a spot Bitcoin ETF and a spot Ether ETF, both trading on the New York Stock Exchange Arca.
This article was written by Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.
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Japan’s largest insurer to raise expected interest rates for the first time in 40 years
This is but another sign that perhaps things are starting to change in Japan with the BOJ looking to hold interest rates at a higher level amid their recent policy shift. Nippon Life Insurance is now reportedly set to raise the expected interest rates for its annuities and whole life insurance for the first time in 40 years. The move will go into effect in January 2025.
The change is to apply to pension insurance, whole life insurance, education insurance, and other types of insurance where premiums are paid monthly.
The interest rates for annuity insurance will increase from 0.60% currently to 1.00%. Meanwhile, for whole life insurance from 0.25% to 0.40%, and for education insurance from 0.85% to 1.00%.
Now that the BOJ is starting to normalise monetary policy, things are starting to reverberate as Japan’s largest insurer is also taking a big step up. The higher expected interest rates means that life insurance holders will pay less in premiums for those affected by the change. The examples provided by Nikkei:
“For example, if a 20-year-old male pays insurance premiums for 45 years and signs a contract to receive a total pension of 10 million yen from age 65, the monthly premium will fall by 4.7%, from 17,190 yen to 16,380 yen. The total accumulated contribution will fall from 9.28 million yen to 8.85 million yen, reducing the burden on the policyholder. If a 30-year-old woman takes out a whole life insurance policy with a payout of 5 million yen, the monthly premium will be reduced by 1.2%, from 14,990 yen to 14,815 yen.”
Now that Nippon Life has made the first move, other insurance companies in Japan are also likely to follow suit in doing so.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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CMC Markets Initiates Client Onboarding with Revolut: H1 Trading Revenue Up 50%
The trading revenue of CMC Markets (LON: CMCX) in the six months between April and September 2024 increased by 50 per cent to £131.3 million. It also confirmed that client onboarding with Revolut began following a soft launch earlier this year.
Finance Magnates interviewed two CMC executives earlier, who explained the details of the Revolut deal.
Profit on a Strong Revenue
Returning to the numbers, the London-headquartered broker also earned £19.9 million from investing net revenue and another £23.4 million from interest income. Overall, its net operating revenue rose to £177.4 million, 45 per cent higher than the corresponding half of the previous fiscal year and in line with its previous projection of £180 million.
The broker attributed the increase in revenue to “continued growth across the institutional segment and an increase in client trading activity.”
Similarly, the broker’s pre-tax profits for the six months came in at £49.6 million, slightly below the expectation of £51 million. It recovered from a £2 million loss in the same period of the previous year.
This also boosted the company’s profit-loss margin to 28 per cent from negative 2 per cent in the first half of FY24. With a basic earnings per share of 12.8 pence, the broker also decided to distribute 3.10 pence in dividends per share compared to 1 pence per share in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.
“CMC has reached the peak of the investment cycle,” said Lord Cruddas, CMC’s CEO, adding, “Whilst we continue to invest in the business, we are taking a disciplined approach, and we remain laser-focused on driving further efficiencies across our global operations as we continue to leverage our scale and technology.”
Confident on Guidance
The broker’s management is also optimistic about meeting the guidance of net operating income. It kept its operating cost guidance for the fiscal year at £225 million unchanged.
“We remain confident in meeting the guidance set earlier this year, with net operating income expected to be in line with market consensus, supported by a strong pipeline of B2B partnerships and ongoing product expansion and diversification,” Lord Cruddas added.
Meanwhile, the broker has also been strengthening its geographical coverage. Recently, it entered into a long-term strategic partnership with ASB Bank, a major financial institution in the country with around 1.5 million customers, and will offer the bank its its white-label technology.
This article was written by Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.
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ECB’s Villeroy: The balance of risks on growth, inflation is shifting to the downside
- Victory against inflation is in sight in Europe
- Inflation could be sustainably at 2% in early 2025
- Trump tariffs not expected to significantly alter inflation outlook in Europe
- Should continue to reduce degree of monetary policy restriction
- Pace of reduction must be determined by agile pragmatism
- We must maintain full optionality for upcoming meetings
It is interesting to see Villeroy take a bit of a different approach. His colleagues have gone out of the way to highlight risks regarding Trump tariffs but Villeroy is pretty much dismissing them, at least on the inflation front. But it is well worth considering the potential impact of those tariffs on the economic outlook at least.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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Chart Art: WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Triangle Bounce or Breakout?
WTI crude oil is consolidating inside a descending triangle pattern on its 4-hour chart, and price is currently testing resistance. Is it about to bust higher from here?
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US Dollar Price Forecast: The bullish outlook remains in play near 106.50
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with mild losses around 106.50 during the early European session on Thursday.
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BoJ’s Ueda: We decide monetary policy meeting by meeting on basis of information available
More comments flowing in from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, as he now speaks on the monetary policy and the exchange rate value.
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Fed’s Williams: The disinflationary process will continue
- Labour market is now in balance, not providing upward pressure on inflation
- Wants to see inflation coming down to 2% and staying around that level amid solid labour market
- Don’t see any signs of a recession in the data
- It is pretty clear that monetary policy is restrictive today
- That is why it is “very appropriate” to cut rates in the past two meetings
- We’re well positioned for risks of inflation being higher than we expect for next year
- Expects it to be appropriate to cut rates further to more normal or neutral levels over time
- Full transcript
There’s nothing new in the comments here from Williams. As things stand, Fed funds futures are showing a ~53% probability of a rate cut next month. The upcoming non-farm payrolls report on 6 December is going to be crucial in finalising any biases here as policymakers are not offering all too much to work with for now.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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Fed’s Williams sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further
In a Barron’s interview published on Thursday, New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President John Williams said that he “sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further.” He further noted that “2% is the rate that can best balance the central bank’s employment and price stability goals.” .
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