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Japan’s Akazawa: ‘Critical stage’ in eradicating the public’s deflationary mindset
Japan economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that Japan’s economy is at a ‘critical stage’ in eradicating the public’s deflationary mindset.
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Toyota unions to aim for higher wages, better conditions
The Federation of All Toyota Workers’ Unions has announced that it will seek greater improvements in wages and working conditions during this year’s wage negotiations compared to last year.
The Bank of Japan is looking for workers to get higher wages and thus buy more and support inflation.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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PBOC stalls treasury bond buying citing short supply
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced on Friday that it has halted treasury bond purchases temporarily due to short supply of the bonds.
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PBoC pauses bond buying – more
China’s central bank announced on Friday that it will temporarily halt treasury bond purchases due to a shortage of supply, leading to a rise in yields across various maturities.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stated it would consider resuming bond buying based on supply and demand conditions in the government bond market.
This decision follows the PBOC’s repeated warnings about bubble risks in China’s overheated bond market, where long-term yields have consistently reached record lows.
In response to the announcement, yields, which move inversely to bond prices, surged. The 30-year treasury yield rose by five basis points in early trading, while the 10-year yield increased by four basis points.
Meanwhile, the Bank is continuing to try to cap USD/CNY:
The PBoC need to stop the yuan falling, it wants to keep the potential for this to happen as a threat if Trump hitds China hard on tariffs. I wrote on this yesterday ICYMI:
after the low, low, low inflation data for December published yesterday:
- The People’s Bank of China is wary of providing too much stimulus, such as a rate cut, due to financial stability and yuan weakness concerns.
- A political consideration now is that China will want to hold off on letting the yuan slide, keeping the threat of that happening in case its needed as a leverage tool in the event of Trump tariffs.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1891 vs. 7.1886 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1891 as compared to the previous day’s fix of 7.1886 and 7.3138 Reuters estimates.
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WTI holds steady above $73.50 amid stronger US Dollar, potential supply disruptions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $73.65 on Friday.
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PBOC pauses government bond purchases in the open market
PBOC temporarily halts government bond purchases in the open market starting January 2025 amid supply shortages, with resumption tied to market conditions.
Hmmmm. Chinese bonds have been bid, PBoC probably not wanting to fuel that even more?
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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ANZ now forecasting a February Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut
Previously only Commonwealth Bank of Australia were tipping February, ANZ jump on board now.
I’ll need to update this:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1891 (vs. estimate at 7.3138)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
How the process works:
- Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
- The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
- Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.
The previous close for the hapless CNY was 7.3322
more to come
The gap between the market price and the reference rate for CNY is wide and widening.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan Eco Min Akazawa: ‘critical stage’ in eradicating the public’s deflationary mindset
Japan Economy Minister Akazawa:
- No change to the government’s stance to work closely with the BOJ on policy with an eye on the economy and prices.
- In deciding whether to declare a full exit from deflation, what’s important is to ensure Japan does not slip back into deflation again.
- Once we are able to declare a full end to deflation, we can relieve ourselves from deploying the tools we had in store to fight deflation.
- Japan’s economy is at a ‘critical stage’ in eradicating the public’s deflationary mindset and shifting to a phase where growth is spearheaded by higher wages and investment.
It doesn’t sound like Akazawa thinks the job is over on fighting deflation?
Given inflation data consistently above the BoJ 2% target I think he needs to chillax a little.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Fed’s Harker: Fed still on rate-cut path, future moves driven by data
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that the US central bank is still expected to continue to cut rates but explained that the path will depend on data, per Reuters.
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Canadian PM Trudeau says ‘we would definitely respond’ if Trump does impose tariffs.
Canadian PM Trudeau says ‘we would definitely respond’ if Trump does impose tariffs.
- says he does not want to see U.S. tariffs and does not want to see Canadian countermeasures.
- if Trump does impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, ‘everything the American consumers buy from Canada is suddenly going to get a lot more expensive.’
- Trump is talking about annexing Canada as a distraction tactic.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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