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Japan’s industry minister says to extend fuel subsidies for a “certain period”

Japan’s industry minister says to extend fuel subsidies for a “certain period”

Japanese Industry Minister
Ken Saito spoke on Friday regarding the government plan to extend its
fuel subsidies “for a certain period”.

Subsidies paid to energy wholesalers aimed at limiting the domestic prices of gasoline, kerosene and other fuels began in January
2022 and have been extended multiple times.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Fiji Trend MT4 Indicator

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Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida will appear in parliament from 10am Tokyo time

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida will appear in parliament from 10am Tokyo time

Uchida will be in the Diet from 10 am Japan time

This is 0100 GMT and 2100 US Eastern time.

We’ve had a pile of data from Japan today, none of it suggestive of a quickening of BOJ rate hikes to come. although at least retail sales improved:

I wonder how much of the improvement in retail sales can be attributed to the prospect of wage rises?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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China Vanke says its objective is to cut interest bearing debt by 100bn yuan in next 2 yrs

China Vanke says its objective is to cut interest bearing debt by 100bn yuan in next 2 yrs

Vanke is (was) one of China’s biggest real estate developers. Its been in troubles:

China Vanke now says its objective is to cut interest-bearing debt by 100bn yuan in the next 2 yrs

  • Vanke’s Chair says he maintains view that property market has over-corrected

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Ranges subdued by widespread holidays in Asia

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Ranges subdued by widespread holidays in Asia

Core
consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo, used as an early indicator of
nationwide figures due in around three weeks, rose 2.4% in March from
a year earlier, matching a median market estimate and slowing
slightly from a 2.5% gain in February. The other core measure,
referred to as core-core that excludes fresh food and energy costs,
and is interpreted as a broader price trend indicator, also slowed,
coming in at 2.9% in March from 3.1% in February. Despite
the slowing both
are still well
above the Bank
of Japan 2% target rate.

Separate
data on Japanese factory output showed a
fall vs the
rise expected.

If
there is encouragement to be taken from today’s Japan data it was found
in retail sales, these beat median forecasts and rose for a 24th
consecutive month. Put
above-target inflation together with better retail sales and the BOJ
stays on a tightening course, though its expected to be slow.

USD/JPY
responded by inching just a little higher. It had barely added 10 or
so tics in more than hour when Japan’s finance minister Suzuki
weighed in with regular verbal intervention. The rhetoric
from Suzuki and other officials has been taken up
to a more
forthright level. Suzuki today included mentions of:

  • rapid
    FX moves
  • speculative moves
  • won’t rule out any steps to
    respond to disorderly FX

USD/JPY
backed off from its earlier high.

In
other major FX moves were also subdued. We are heading towards the
next session with holidays in the UK and Europe. It’s a holiday
today also in the US and Canada, although we have Powell speaking and
inflation data released.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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US inflation report coming up on Friday when markets will be closed – ranges to watch

US inflation report coming up on Friday when markets will be closed – ranges to watch

PCE inflation data for February will be released! What is this?

The Federal Reserve prefers the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation for several key reasons:

  • The Core PCE covers a broader range of goods and services than the CPI. While CPI focuses on out-of-pocket expenses for urban consumers, PCE includes expenditures on behalf of households, such as employer-paid health insurance and Medicare. This wider scope makes PCE a more comprehensive measure of consumer spending.
  • PCE adjusts for the substitution effect, where consumers might switch from higher-priced goods to lower-priced alternatives as prices change. CPI, on the other hand, uses a fixed basket of goods and services, which can overstate inflation if consumers shift their consumption patterns in response to price changes.
  • PCE specifically measures spending by individuals and can more accurately reflect the consumption patterns that are central to the U.S. economy.
  • The ‘core’ version of both indices (Core PCE and Core CPI) excludes food and energy prices, which are volatile. However, the Fed often gives more weight to Core PCE because of its broader coverage and substitution bias adjustment.
  • PCE data are subject to regular and comprehensive revisions that reflect the latest and most accurate information available. This can make PCE a more reliable measure over the long term.
  • Core PCE is a more stable and accurate reflection of the long-term inflation trends that guide monetary policy.

***

The data is due at 0830 US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT:

For the Core PCE Price Index m/m, expected is 0.3%

  • prior was 0.4%
  • range of estimates is 0.3% to 0.3% (yes, all the same)

Core PCE Price Index y/y, expected 2.8%

  • prior was also 2.8%
  • range of estimates is 2.7 % to 2.8 %

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

  • Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

  • Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

  • Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

  • Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

  • Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, weaker data will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger result will diminish such expectations.

  • Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

  • Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks Friday, San Francisco Fed’s Daly also

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks Friday, San Francisco Fed’s Daly also

Powell and Daly are both speaking on a day when equity, bonds and futures are all closed.

1115 US Eastern time, which is 1515 GMT:

  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference

1130 US Eastern time, which is 1530 US Eastern time:

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in moderated discussion before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference

I’m expecting more Fed officials to push back against market expectations of a near-term rate hike, and also to water down expectations of the number of rate hikes this year. Kashkari, Bostic and Waller have all begun this process.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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