Markets:
- Gold up $4 to $3339
- WTI crude oil up $1.00 to $68.00
- US 10-year yields up 4.5 bps to 4.39%
- S&P 500 down 0.9%
- USD leads, JPY lags
The market sniffed out some trouble around Trump’s rollout of a fresh round of tariff levels and deadlines early and that led to an initial USD rally. Some of that was faded (or all in the case of GBP) in time for the European close. However the announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea for Aug 1 sparked a new round of risk aversion and USD buying that continued with 5 more names added to the list. Presumably there are still 5 more to go as media reports indicated there would be a dozen letters sent out.
The second round of USD buying sent the euro to a session low of 1.1688 but there were some solid bids at that level and it bounced to 1.1720 last. Elsewhere, the earlier USD extremes also held.
The exception was the yen, which was soft all day in a steady grind to 146.10 from 144.25 in early Asian trading.
Another notable spot was oil, which fell $2 early on the OPEC production boost only to finish $1 higher. That’s a classic post-OPEC squeeze with some talk now circulating indicating that production was never curbed as much as purported anyway, as global inventories continue to appear tight.
As the US tariffs were rolled out, gold steadily climbed higher and it ultimately erased a $35 decline from Asian trading to finish higher.
Eyes are on the RBA next with AUD/USD trading near 0.6500. The pair softened inot the decision and struggled to mount any kind of a rebound. A 25 bps cuts is largely priced in and the announcement is due at 12:30 am ET.
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