The Trump-Xi summit came and went without a single breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Traders had hoped Beijing would lean on Tehran. Instead, they got warm handshakes, a Boeing order, and a reminder that two of the world’s most powerful leaders agreeing something should happen doesn’t mean it will. Then the market got handed five days of brutal U.S. data — CPI, PPI, retail sales, and industrial production all came in hot — and the message was clear: inflation is sticky, rate cuts are off the table, and the dollar was going to feast. There’s also a fresh wildcard to price in: on Sunday morning, a drone struck an electrical generator at the UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant, sparking a fire. No radiation risk, no casualties — but it’s a signal that the conflict is spreading to civilian infrastructure and reaching U.S. allies deeper into the Gulf. The week’s calendar is mid-heavy, loaded toward the back half. UK employment hits Tuesday alongside Canadian CPI. UK CPI and FOMC minutes land Wednesday. Australian jobs, Eurozone flash PMIs, UK flash PMIs, and U.S. flash PMIs all arrive Thursday. UK and Canadian retail sales close out the week Friday.
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