After a run of weeks where the real driver hid off the calendar, this one paid off the map as drawn. We named Thursday’s jobs report as the hinge, and it delivered: payrolls badly undershot, the dollar fell across the board, and the risk board recovered. A dovish surprise from Fed Chair Warsh on Wednesday lit the fuse a day early. The operative scenario was Scenario C — Risk-On — the one Tuesday raised from 22% to 30%. Every asset’s direction came in right. The honest headline this week is the mirror of last week’s: the driver was on the calendar, so being right about the board also meant being right about the cause. Below we score each scenario, walk every asset, and turn the lessons into rules.
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