The original framework’s base case is straining at its seams. Two sessions in, and the week has already delivered a Bank of Japan vote that was hawkish in its mechanics but dovish in its guidance, a seventh consecutive session of WTI gains that has carried crude to within reach of the $97 spike regime threshold, and a Tuesday labor print that may have quietly shifted the FOMC’s calculus more than the headline dollar reaction suggests. Iran’s request — relayed by Trump — to lift the U.S. naval blockade while talks continue seems to represent the first explicit acknowledgment from Tehran that the Strait’s closure is becoming untenable on their side. Whether that reading survives Wednesday’s institutional gauntlet is the scenario question the framework now needs to answer.
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