NZDUSD broke below 0.5650 on Tuesday, a level that was keenly contested by both buyers and sellers, with sellers finally able to push through the level. NZDUSD has continued to move lower, with price testing lows around 0.5600 in the session this afternoon.
The move comes against the backdrop of moves lower across the major FX pairs, with EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all lower in the session today as higher yields continue to support the US Dollar broadly across the market.
NZD has been pressured not only by a slightly dovish macro environment but also by heightened geopolitical pressure in the Middle East. Iran sent a cease-fire proposal to the US if certain terms were agreed to, but that has not been accepted by the United States.
There are now reports that the US is planning another round of attacks on Iran, oil prices are now back above $91 per barrel.
The sharp decline in price today has taken NZDUSD back to lows from November 2025, with sellers now threatening a break below 0.5600 and setting their sights on extending the move lower towards 0.5500 in the medium term.
The base case in the market suggests that this move is quite feasible, as the NZD side of the equation remains slightly disadvantaged compared with the US Dollar side of the equation, backed not only by higher yields but also by a hawkish Fed.
The NFP report tomorrow will be key. It could be the next catalyst for a break below 0.5600 and a push towards 0.5500, or it could at least trigger a temporary recovery in price before sellers resume the onslaught we have seen in recent times.
In conclusion, it is not looking particularly good for buyers on the NZDUSD pair. Sellers are constructively in control.
Feed from Fxstreet.com