What are the main events for today?

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final services PMIs for the UK and European economies. These shouldn’t be market moving releases since they won’t change anything in terms of market pricing.

In the American session, in terms of data points, we have the US ADP, the Canadian Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI. From a market perspective, the prices paid component in the ISM PMI should be the most important one.

We will also have the Bank of Canada releasing its policy decision where the central bank is expected to keep rates steady. Given the recent inflation data and the bounce in some leading indicators, we could see the bank taking a more neutral stance. The market is pricing 43 bps of easing by year-end at the moment, but that could go even lower in the next months.

Watch out also for tariff related news throughout the day as the White House yesterday confirmed that it sent a letter asking nations to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday.

Central bank speakers:

• 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Fed’s Bostic (hawk – non voter)
• 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET – Fed’s Cook (dove – voter)

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