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WSJ Timiraos: “The Dream of a Fed rate cuts is slipping away”

WSJ Timiraos: “The Dream of a Fed rate cuts is slipping away”

The WSJs Timiraos is out with an article titled “The Dreams of Fed rate cuts is slipping away”.

A summary of the article says:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Inflation Expectations:

  • Powell has reduced expectations for interest rate cuts.
  • Recent economic reports have consistently shown inflation being more persistent than initially expected, contradicting hopes for significant rate reductions soon.

Economic and Inflation Data:

  • Commerce Department data revealed inflation has been stickier than anticipated for three consecutive months, following a period of relative improvement.
  • Growth has been more resilient, with GDP growing at a 1.6% annual rate, while underlying demand suggested a stronger 3% rate.

Inflation Trends and Adjustments:

  • Core inflation for Q1 rose at a 3.7% annualized rate, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.
  • Upcoming price data for March is expected to show continued strong inflation, potentially revising January and February’s data higher.

Market sentiment has shifted towards expecting fewer or no cuts this year.

For the full article CLICK HERE.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Earnings after the close include Microsoft, Alphabet, and Intel.

Earnings after the close include Microsoft, Alphabet, and Intel.

Microsoft: Shares of Microsoft are trading down $-9.96 or -2.43% at $398.96

  • Earnings per Share: Analysts expect $2.82 per share.
  • Revenue: Expected to be $60.80 billion, which would represent a 15.0% year-over-year growth. This is slightly above the 14.5% growth forecast provided by management in January.

Other key insights include:

  • PC Shipments: A 0.9% increase in PC shipments this quarter, influencing the sales of Windows licenses to PC makers.
  • Azure Cloud Services: Growth is expected to slow down to 28.8% from 30% in the previous quarter, with a consensus around 28.6%.
  • New Developments: Microsoft introduced Surface PCs with a special key for accessing the Copilot chatbot and started selling access to Copilot for small businesses through Microsoft 365 subscriptions.

Both the shares of Microsoft and the S&P index are up about 6% on the year.

Alphabet: Shares of Alphabet are currently trading down $3.04 -1.90% at $156.11

  • Revenue (excluding traffic acquisition costs): Expected to be $66.07 billion, up from $58.07 billion in Q1 2023.
  • Adjusted EPS: Expected to be $1.51, up from $1.17 in Q1 2023.
  • Cloud Revenue: Expected to be $9.37 billion, up from $7.45 billion in Q1 2023.
  • Ad Revenue: Expected to be $60.18 billion, up from $54.55 billion in Q1 2023.

Intel: Shares of Intel I trading up $0.73 or 2.13% at $35.23

  • Earnings per Share (EPS): Expected to be $0.13, up from a loss of $0.04 per share in the same quarter last year. The earnings last quarter were at $0.62
  • Revenue: Expected to be $12.7 billion, an increase from $11.7 billion in the same quarter last year. Last quarter, revenues were at $15.406B

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Crude oil settles at $83.57

Crude oil settles at $83.57

Crude oil is settling at $83.57. That’s up $0.76 or 0.92%.

Technically, looking at the price action on the hourly price below, like the USD, it too has been quite up and down volatile. Yesterday, the price found support against its 100-hour moving average (blue line). Today, the moving average was broken on its way to a low near $82 (low was at $81.99).

The subsequent bounce, now has the price breaking above its 200-hour moving average. That moving average stalled the rise both yesterday (on two separate occasions) and also earlier today. The 200-hour moving average comes in at $83.25.

Going forward if the 200-hour moving average can hold support the buyers can push higher with the 50% of the move down from the high currently at $84.19.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Cboe to End Crypto Exchange in Plans to Consolidate Services

Cboe to End Crypto Exchange in Plans to Consolidate Services

Cboe Global Markets plans to close its cryptocurrency
exchange in the third quarter of 2024. Cash-settled Bitcoin and ether futures contracts will move from the Cboe Digital Exchange to the Cboe Futures Exchange in the first half of 2025. According to the press release, John Palmer, the President of Cboe Digital, will head US
Derivatives Market Development.

Consolidating Crypto Futures

Cboe aims to consolidate its US futures products
into one exchange to enhance efficiency for clients globally. By leveraging its
global derivatives franchise, the options exchange plans to support
exchange-traded digital asset derivatives markets.

Fred Tomczyk, the Chief Executive Officer of Cboe Global Markets, mentioned: “Refocusing our digital asset business enables us to
refine our strategy, leveraging our core strengths in derivatives, technology
excellence, and product innovation to help maximize opportunities for our
business and deliver efficiencies for Cboe and our clients.”

“We believe these changes enable greater optimization
and strategic alignment for our business across geographies and asset classes,
further supporting our long-term growth strategy.”

Cboe Aligns Clearing Business

Notably, Cboe will maintain ownership and operation of
Cboe Clear Digital, its clearing arm, and align it with Cboe Clear Europe under
unified leadership. The exchange mentioned that this alignment will better
serve clients globally.

According to Cboe, the closure of the crypto exchange will
not have a significant impact on its net revenue in 2024. The company anticipates
to save money on expenses from the closure. Further details about these changes are
expected during the first-quarter 2024 earnings call on May 3, 2024.

Last year, Cboe Digital launched margin futures for
Bitcoin and ether. Backed by a consortium of 11 firms, including notable names
like B2C2 and Cumberland DRW, Cboe Digital noted that it was enhancing crypto
trading by combining spot and leveraged derivatives trading on a unified
platform.

Cboe Digital became one of the first US-regulated crypto exchanges and clearinghouses after integrating spot and leveraged derivatives
trading. The addition of physically delivered products further
diversified its offerings, catering to the evolving needs of crypto traders.

This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

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USDCAD another pair that has retraced the USD gains. Back down testing 50% midpoint.

USDCAD another pair that has retraced the USD gains. Back down testing 50% midpoint.

The USDCAD has been trading up and down over the last few days of trading. The volatility intensified today with a move lower into retracement and swing area support, followed by a move higher into swing area resistance, followed by another move lower into the same retracement and swing area support as the initial move down today.

The price is currently testing the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36612. The swing area is between 1.3654 up to 1.3668.

The decision for traders is whether to buy the dip against the 50%/against the swing area down to 1.36546 (and for the subsequent bounce), or look for a break of that level with more momentum pushing the price down toward the 61.8% retracement and rising 200 bar moving average on 4 hur chart at 1.3615 area

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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