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Eurostoxx futures +0.4% in early European trading

  • German DAX futures +0.3%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.2%

European indices got off to a stuttering start to the new month yesterday but are looking to get back on their feet today. The DAX closed down 1% yesterday, so the bounce here isn’t too significant. That despite the rotation play in Wall Street away from tech shares. The better risk sentiment today is helping at least, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Goldman Sachs do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC8+ decides to increase output

Goldman Sachs do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC8+ decides to increase output

Goldman Sachs:

  • “We do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC8+ decides to increase production on Sunday as consensus has already shifted towards this outcome”

It is the consensus, yes, I published this earlier:

Brent crude oil update since the spike higher on the Sunday evening US time/Monday morning Asia time after Trump bombed Iranian nuclear facilities:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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“Canada still aims to lift all Trump tariffs as part of deal with US”

“Canada still aims to lift all Trump tariffs as part of deal with US”

Canada’s ambassador in Washington and chief negotiator in the talks with the US:

  • says Canada still aiming to get all of Trump’s tariffs lifted as part of a deal with the White House later this month
  • remained confident the country can get the levies cancelled as part of negotiations for a new economic and security partnership
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney has a self-imposed July 21 deadline

Info via Canadian media, Globe and Mail, link here (may be gated).

Chief negotiator Kirsten Hillman

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Rangebound session

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Rangebound session

It was a mostly subdued session across Asian financial markets today.

The key data point was Australian retail sales for May, which rose just 0.2% m/m (vs. expected +0.4%) and 3.3% y/y. The modest gain highlights continued pressure on household spending amid cost-of-living strains and weak consumer confidence. The soft print added to expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut at its July 7–8 meeting. AUD/USD edged lower in response, though the move was part of a broader lift in the USD.

Elsewhere, oil, regional equities, gold, and bond markets all traded within tight ranges. Tokyo stocks fell in morning trade with ongoing concerns about Japan-US tariff talks.

In geopolitics:

  • The Pentagon has paused some air defense missile and precision weapon shipments to Ukraine amid concerns about depleted U.S. stockpiles, according to Reuters citing sources.

  • Trump said Israel has agreed to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire proposal, posting on social media that the next move is up to Hamas.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Goldman Sachs: June US jobs report could trigger further USD losses vs EUR and JPY

Synopsis: Goldman Sachs sees this week’s June US jobs report as a potential catalyst for renewed Dollar weakness, especially if it shows more visible labour market deterioration that reinforces a dovish tilt from the Fed. With geopolitical risks easing and fiscal/tariff noise fading, conventional macro drivers like employment data will likely take centre stage for FX markets.

Key Points:

Rate Differentials Still Matter:

• The Dollar has already been drifting lower despite wide rate differentials, suggesting flows have been shifting.

• Recently, the move down in US front-end rates has gained traction again as safe-haven demand for USD wanes.

Geopolitical and Political Risks Fading:

• Middle East tensions have relaxed rapidly, diminishing the USD’s safe-haven appeal.

• Domestic US risks, like the section 899 provision and reciprocal tariffs, look less immediate, reducing fiscal overhang.

Macro Focus Shifts to Labour Market:

• Goldman sees a weaker NFP print or signs of a softer labour market as a clear next trigger for the Dollar to weaken further, especially against EUR and JPY.

• Such a move would reinforce expectations that the Fed will turn more dovish, adding to downside USD pressure.

Broader USD Path:

• Absent a sharp labour data miss, the base case remains a gradual USD grind lower, supporting EM carry and a stronger CNY, with spillover effects for Asia FX.

Conclusion: Goldman Sachs highlights that the June US jobs report could be the spark for the next leg of Dollar weakness, with EUR and JPY likely to benefit the most. If the data surprise dovishly, expect renewed USD selling. Otherwise, a steady USD downtrend remains their base case as macro factors—not geopolitical or fiscal shocks—drive the next FX moves.

This info via eFX.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Goldman Sachs says S&P 500 rally has room to run — but not for long

Goldman Sachs says S&P 500 rally has room to run — but not for long

The S&P 500 is likely to extend its rally through the next couple of weeks, boosted by improving liquidity, falling volatility, reduced recession fears, and strong seasonal trends, according to flow strategists at Goldman Sachs.

Info via Bloomberg:

“We think this rally will continue for the next couple weeks but lose steam into August”

“We are entering the strongest month for the S&P historically” (July, with the first half of the month better than the back half)

Tailwinds cited:

  • seasonality
  • lower volatility supporting sentiment
  • systematic investors still have significant capital to allocate
  • improved liquidity
  • sentiment improved with geopolitical tensions easing and optimism growing around trade negotiations and possible rate cuts

GS on risks:

  • rally has been narrow
  • lower-quality stocks leading
  • bullish positioning rising sharply

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Australian data – Retail Sales May 2025: +0.2% m/m (expected +0.4%)

Australian data – Retail Sales May 2025: +0.2% m/m (expected +0.4%)

Australian data – Retail Sales May 2025: +0.2% m/m, short of expectations again and recording a fourth month of sluggish spending:

  • expected +0.4%, prior -0.1%
  • +3.3% y/y (+3.8% prior), the slowest annual pace since November last year

Australian retail sales rose less than expected in May:

  • drop in the food sector (this is a rarity)
  • gains in clothing and department stores

There is nothing in the data to stand in the way of an Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut next week. The Bank meet July 7 and 8, a 25bp rate cut is widely although not unanimously expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1546 (vs. estimate at 7.1623)

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1546 (vs. estimate at 7.1623)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

Previous close was 7.1650

PBOC injected 98.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%

  • 365.3bn yuan mature today
  • net drain is 266.8bn yuan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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