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Economic Calendar for the Week 20.01.2025 – 26.01.2025
Early last week, the DXY Dollar Index surpassed the 110.00 threshold and is now continuing its upward momentum toward the November 2022 highs and the 111.00 level. The dollar is rising amid positive macro statistics from the US, and its buyers open more trades in anticipation of the new White House administration following the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump on January 20. The US dollar is gaining traction as a safe haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors are increasingly worried about Trump’s rhetoric regarding the purchase of Greenland and the potential for the Panama Canal… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
Feed from Litefinance.com
South Korean impeached President Yoon has been arrested
Arrest finally made.
An attempt was made on January 3, unsuccessfully (pic below):
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Gold prices gain ground after US PPI inflation sparks fresh rate cut hopes
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday after data from the United States (US) showed that prices paid by producers cooled off.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
WTI holds above $76.50 on US sanctions on Russian oil exports
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.75 on Wednesday.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
Goldman Sachs headline and core US December CPI forecasts
Goldman Sachs forecasts for the US December CPI due at 8.30 am US Eastern time today, Wednesday, January 15, 2025
- 1330 GMT
Headline CPI forecasts from GS:
- 2.91% y/y
- 0.4% m/m
Core CPI forecasts:
- 3.27 y/y
- 0.25% m/m
Close to consensus:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3240 – Reuters estimate
People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
How the process works:
- Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
- The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
- Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
NZD/USD trades with mild gains near 0.5600 as traders await US CPI data
The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains to near 0.5600 on Wednesday during the Asian trading hours.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
Citi expect the Reserve Bank of Australia on hold in February, first hike in May
Last week I posted on some shifting forecasts for the RBA:
ANZ expects a 25bp interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia February meeting
- due to weaker inflation figures in Q4
Citi are unmoved:
- expect the first RBA rate cut at the May meeting
- expect 75bp of cuts this year
- RBA on hold for longer relative to other central banks should mean outperfomance for the AUD
- target AUD/NZD to 1.13/1.14
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
Goldman Sachs’ three reasons to expect GBP stabilisation and recovery
Goldman Sachs analysts suggest the British Pound can stabilize despite recent declines, although risks remain:
- GBP is “down but not out”
The background to GS’ views are the recent sharp weakness in the pound:
- investor concerns about UK debt market dynamics, with bond sell-offs driving yields higher and raising government borrowing costs
- broader concerns about the UK’s growth fundamentals and ineffective policies to boost economic growth and tax revenue
Goldman Sachs note three reasons to expect GBP stabilisation and recovery:
- recent GBP weakness partly reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in FX markets, which may reverse as risk appetite recovers
- fiscal risks in UK Gilts could compress, reducing pressure on the pound
- upcoming hard data on increased government spending and investment might surprise positively, bolstering sentiment
Risk to the view include:
- a hawkish Federal Reserve, combined with strong U.S. inflation and labor data, creates a challenging environment for GBP/USD … difficult for the Pound with higher global yields, as well as to Dollar strength more directly
- potential “escalation in the loop of sell-offs in UK assets and a more strenuous fiscal position”
GS prefer GBP against EUR:
- the Euro may face challenges from potential tariffs under Trump
Cable update:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
USD/CAD weakens to near 1.4350 on cooler-than-expected US PPI inflation data
The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive around 1.4350 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by the disappointing US December Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
Feed from Fxstreet.com
UBS forecasts EUR/USD to 1 by March, but then recovering to 1.06
UBS Global Wealth Management forecasts for the euro against the US dollar:
- 1.00 by March 2025
- 1.02 in June
- 1.06 in December
Says it’ll be a year of two halves for the big dollar:
- H1 strength
- partial or full reversal in H2
- currently the USD is in ‘strongly over valued territory
I marked off those two extremes UBS mention … the Bank of Japan would kill for such stability!
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Feed from Forexlive.com
GBP/USD grapples with lows as key inflation data looms ahead
GBP/USD is mired in near-term technical consolidation near the 1.2200 handle as key inflation metrics from the US and UK growth figures loom large through the midweek sessions.
Feed from Fxstreet.com