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BofA: Staying long USD/JPY as election and tariff risks weigh on yen
Bank of America highlights that tightening election polls in Japan and incoming US tariffs raise fiscal and political risks, making the yen vulnerable. They stay long USD/JPY targeting 152 and prefer EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY as additional ways to position for yen weakness.
Key Points:
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Japanese Election Risk: Early polls suggest the LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to keep its Upper House majority in the 20 July election, increasing fiscal and political uncertainty.
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US Tariffs on Japan: The US will raise tariffs on Japanese goods to 25% on 1 August, putting pressure on Japan’s economy and fiscal policy while the EU avoids similar tariffs.
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BoJ Policy Bias: Higher tariffs may make the BoJ more tolerant of a weaker yen to offset the economic drag.
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Positioning: Non-commercial traders remain net long yen at CME, leaving the market prone to a squeeze.
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Preferred Trades:
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Stay long USD/JPY, targeting a move toward 152.
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Favor EUR/JPY, as the EU is shielded from new tariffs.
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Bullish on AUD/JPY, supported by China’s growth and no direct tariff threat for Australia after the RBA’s surprise hold.
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Conclusion:
BofA sees further yen weakness as election and tariff risks add pressure, keeping the BoJ cautious. They remain positioned long USD/JPY to 152 and favour EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY as top relative trades.
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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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WTI Crude Oil edges lower amid robust supply and diminishing demand expectations
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is trading lower on Thursday, falling back below the $67.00 mark as markets react to renewed supply concerns and softening demand expectations.
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies after three-day decline
Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm on Thursday after a strong start to the day, recovering from a three-day losing streak as market sentiment turns cautious once again.
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Market movers today: Nvidia soars while Meta stumbles amidst sector volatility
Sector Overview
The US stock market today presents a dynamic landscape with varied performances across sectors, as depicted in the heatmap. Notably, the semiconductor sector shines bright, led by Nvidia (NVDA) with a substantial rise of 2.04%, contrasting with the general downtick in the technology sector.
- Semiconductors: Nvidia’s surge highlights renewed optimism in semiconductors, likely driven by advancements in AI technologies and strong demand forecasts.
- Communication Services: In stark contrast, Meta (META) plunged by 1.51%, reflecting investor concerns possibly linked to regulatory challenges or market saturation.
- Financial Sector: Exhibits significant pressure with banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) down by 0.98% and 1.17% respectively, indicating sector-wide uncertainties.
- Industrials: A refreshing spot as General Electric (GE) emerges with a 1.29% rise, signaling robust industrial output or favorable economic indicators.
Market Mood and Trends
The overall market sentiment appears mixed with a cautious tilt, attributed mainly to sector-specific dynamics and external economic pressures. While technology, especially semiconductors, displays bullish tendencies, areas like communication services and financials struggle with bearish sentiment.
Investors seem reactive to ongoing global economic discussions and corporate earnings potential, which are central to shaping today’s market mood. Meta’s struggles denote possible challenges in sustaining growth amidst competitive pressures.
Strategic Recommendations
Given the current market conditions, here’s what investors might consider:
- Diversify Portfolio: Spread risk across sectors, especially adding defensive stocks amidst volatility in technology and finance.
- Focus on Tech Advancements: Leverage Nvidia’s thriving momentum for gains in AI-driven innovations, keeping an eye on announcements that could impact stock movements.
- Monitor Financials Closely: Anticipate further fluctuations due to economic policies affecting bank performances, advising caution or strategic entry points.
- Observe Sector-specific News: Align investments with developments in industrial growth, which hold potential for long-term stability as evidenced by GE’s performance.
Stay informed with real-time updates on ForexLive.com for actionable insights and analyses to navigate the unfolding market scenarios effectively.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
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Cautious trading ahead – S&P 500 faces global headwinds and policy divergence
The E-mini S&P 500 is trading cautiously amid rising global tensions and domestic economic uncertainty.
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USDJPY moves above the 38.2% of the move down from the 2025 trading range
The USDJPY has moved above the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range, measured from the January 10 high to the April 22 low. That retracement level comes in at 147.135, and it’s aligned with a key swing area between 147.014 and 147.338. The pair has extended to a high of 147.515, marking the third attempt to break and hold above this level since the April low.
Previous moves above the 38.2% retracement—on May 12 and June 23—ultimately failed to hold, but this renewed push gives buyers another opportunity to seize control. From a technical perspective, staying above 147.135 is now critical. If that support holds, upside targets include the June high at 148.019, followed by the May high at 148.647, which sits within a notable swing area between 148.56 and 148.724 (highlighted by red circles on the chart). That swing area increases the May highs importance
The market is once again testing the waters for a bullish breakout. The question now is: Will buyers finally maintain momentum above the 38.2% retracement, or will this be another failed attempt? The close risk level for USD bulls is clear—hold above 147.135 to keep the bullish case alive.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Brazil’s Lula: If US tariffs take effect, we will reciprocate
- W will fight for US tariffs not to take effect
- Trump is misinformed, the US does not run a trade deficit with Brazil
One of Brazil’s main exports to the US is coffee so there is no advantage to the US placing tariffs on it. The Brazilian real is barely down since the whole thing blew up, which tells you the market’s view of it.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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MultiBank’s MEX Orient CEO Exits, Launches Institutional Finance Platform Fuchase
Niki Saki has stepped down as Chief Executive Officer of MEX
Orient. She shared the update in a LinkedIn post today (Friday), confirming the end of her
involvement with the project. Saki served as Chief Executive Officer of MEX
Orient for six months, based in Dubai.
MEX Orient was launched by MultiBank
Group to expand into underdeveloped markets, focusing on Central Asia, the
Middle East, and North Africa. The unit was led by Saki and
aimed to manage region-specific operations.
Fuchase Targets Brokers, Investors Globally
In the announcement, she thanked the MultiBank team for
their trust and collaboration but did not elaborate on the reasons for her
departure.
Now a former CEO of MEX Orient, Saki plans to focus on new
initiatives. She introduced one of them, a platform called Fuchase, describing
it as “a specialized marketplace designed for institutional financial
organizations, providing a platform where they can connect with Tier 1 and Tier
2 liquidity providers, fintech firms, banks, hedge funds, and wealth management
companies.”
The platform will offer structured solutions and expert
advisory services to help organizations explore, compare, and select offers
suited to their needs.
Saki said Fuchase will serve Introducing Brokers, Forex
brokers, and investors, offering access to advanced tools for financial
operations. She added that the platform aims to support the performance and
growth of financial institutions globally. Details of a second project are
expected in the coming months.
MultiBank, MAG Partner for Asset Tokenization
Meanwhile, MultiBank
has partnered with Dubai-based MAG and blockchain firm Mavryk in a $3
billion agreement to tokenize real estate assets. The initiative, led through
MultiBank.io, involves bringing high-value properties onto the blockchain.
MultiBank.io is operated by MEX Digital FZE, which recently
obtained a Virtual Asset Service Provider license from Dubai’s VARA. The
license allows certain virtual asset activities and supports the platform’s
infrastructure. A utility token, $MBG, will be used for access and transactions
within the digital investment ecosystem.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
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Yen Remains Depressed As US Tariff Letters Land. Forecast as of 08.07.2025
Tokyo’s request for a reduction in the tariffs imposed by Washington has led to tensions between the two nations. Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs to 35% but ultimately limited them to 25%. As a result, the USDJPY pair surged. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan. Major Takeaways Japan has been hit with higher tariffs from the US. Parliamentary elections are putting pressure on the yen. Tokyo should show flexibility in negotiations. Long trades on the USDJPY pair can be considered if the price pierces 146.5. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen The markets are constantly evolving, and… Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance
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